Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 13 Aug 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 13 Aug 2014, 09:58 AM

Malaysia

Taxman On Track To Collect RM140b. The Inland Revenue Board of Malaysia (IRB) is on track to collect RM140bil in taxes for 2014, up 8.5% from a year earlier. Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Mohamad Hanadzlah said on Tuesday that year to date, the tax collection had surpassed that of the same period of 2013. He was speaking to reporters after delivering his keynote address at the National Tax Conference 2014 here. Last year, the IRB collected RM129bil in taxes, versus RM125bil in 2012 and RM110bil in 2011. (Bernama)

Asia Pacific

Singapore Avoids Quarter Two Economic Contraction. Singapore’s economic growth slowed significantly in the second quarter even though it avoided a quarterly contraction, and analysts say the second half could be worse. The city-state grew an annualised and seasonally adjusted 0.1% in April-June from the previous quarter, beating the 0.1% contraction forecast in a Reuters poll and the government’s earlier estimate of a 0.8% decline. The economy grew 2.4% in the second quarter from a year ago, in line with market expectations and up slightly from the 2.1% expansion cited in the government’s advance estimate, but still a marked slowdown from the 4.8% recorded in the first quarter. (Reuters)

India's Industrial Growth Slows In June; Inflation A Worry. India's industrial output slowed in June, though expanding for a third straight month, its best run since last September, boosting Asia's third-largest economy as it struggles to emerge from the longest spell of sub-par growth in a quarter-century. Annual growth in output from mines, utilities and factories slowed to 3.4% in June from a upwardly revised 5% a month earlier, government data showed on Tuesday. Retail inflation, tracked by the central bank to set interest rate policy, edged up to 7.96% in July from 7.31% a month earlier, other data released on Tuesday showed. It had eased below 8% for the first time in 29 months in June. (Reuters)

Australian Business Conditions Best In Four Years. A measure of Australian business conditions hit the highest in four years in July as firms reported a sharp pick up in sales and profitability, though many remained reluctant to hire new workers. National Australia Bank's survey of more than 400 firms showed its index of business conditions jumped 6 points to stand at +8 in July, the highest since early 2010 and an upbeat sign for the economy in the third quarter. The report's index of business confidence also improved, rising 3 points to +11 led by strength in home construction and retailing. The survey's measure of sales climbed 7 points to +14, while that for profitability surged 7 points to +10. The employment index added 3 points but was still soft overall at 0. (Reuters)

USA

Job Openings In U.S. Increase To Highest Level Since 2001. Job openings rose in June to the highest level in more than 13 years, firming up the U.S. labor market picture for the second half of the year. The number of unfilled positions climbed by 94,000 to 4.67 million, the most since February 2001, from a revised 4.58 million in May, a report from the Labor Department showed today. (Bloomberg)

Small-business Optimism Up, But Some Signs Remain Grim. Optimism among small-business owners edged higher in July, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), but it said the overall results suggest "the small-business half of the economy is still not pulling its weight." Optimism rose 0.7 points in July to 95.7 from the previous month, still about 5 points below the average from 1973 to 2008 and nowhere near readings typical of a real economic expansion, the NFIB said. The NFIB survey of mallbusiness owners found 13% of owners added an average of 2.9 workers per firm over the past few months, up 1%age point from June. (CNBC)

U.S. Budget Deficit Falls To $95bil In July. The U.S. budget deficit was $95bil at the end of July, down 3% from the same period last year, according to data released by the Treasury Department on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a $96bil deficit for last month. The deficit was $98bil in July of 2013. The fiscal year-to-date deficit at the end of July was $460bil, the lowest level since the same period in fiscal year 2008, compared with a deficit of $607bil for the same period in fiscal year 2013, according to Treasury's monthly budget statement. (Reuters)

Yellen Resolved To Avoid Raising Rates Too Soon, Fearing Downturn. Approaching a historic turn in U.S. monetary policy, Janet Yellen has staked her tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve on a simple principle: she'd rather fight inflation than another economic downturn. Interviews with current and former Fed officials indicate that Yellen and core decisionmakers at the U.S. central bank are determined not to raise interest rates too early and risk hurting the fragile U.S.economy. (Reuters)

Europe

German Investor Confidence Slumps On Ukraine Crisis. German investor confidence fell to the lowest level since 2012 as the crisis in Ukraine and a sluggish euro-area recovery damp the outlook for Europe’s largest economy. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, dropped to 8.6 in August from 27.1 in July. Economists forecast a decrease to 17, according to the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. This was the eighth consecutive monthly decline and the biggest in more than two years. (Bloomberg)

UK Retailers Say Sales Rose In July, Driven By Furniture. British retail sales growth rose in July, driven by an upturn in furniture spending and other non-food purchases, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) on Tuesday. Total retail spending was 1.3% higher in July compared with the same month a year ago, the BRC said, as growth picked up from June's comparatively weak rate of 0.6%. Sales on alike-for-like basis - a measure which strips out changes in floor space and is favored by equity analysts - fell 0.3% on the year, bucking expectations for a 0.6% rise. (Reuters)

UK Statistics Agency Revises Down Scale Of 2008-09 Recession. Britain's economy shrank less than previously thought during the 2008-09 recession, though the downturn remains easily the worst since modern records began in 1948, revisions to official data showed on Tuesday. British economic output is now estimated at 4.6% lower in 2009 than it was in 2007. The decline had been set at 5.2% on June 30 and 6.0% in the last major annual revision to gross domestic product data, in 2013. The Office for National Statistics is overhauling how it calculates British GDP in response to new European Union statistical rules and some domestic changes, and publishing regular updates. Further revisions - including quarterly data and figures covering 2010-2012 - are due on Sept. 3. (Reuters)

Currencies

Euro Near 9-Month Low After Dismal German Data. The euro traded near a nine-month low versus the U.S. dollar Tuesday, falling after a gauge of German investor sentiment dropped more sharply than expected. The euro changed hands at $1.3369, down slightly from $1.3384 in North American trade late Monday. The shared currency slipped as low as $1.3336 after the Center for European Economic Research, or ZEW, said the lead indicator produced by its monthly survey of German investors fell to 8.6 in August, from 27.1 in July — the lowest reading for the economic-expectations index since December 2012. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against a basket of major rivals, rose to 81.512, up slightly from 81.452 late Monday. The U.S. unit was little changed versus the Japanese currency at 102.24 yen. The British pound traded at $1.6814, up marginally from $1.6787 late Monday. (MarketWatch)

Commodities

Brent Falls To 13-Month Low On Demand Concerns, Ample Supply. Brent crude oil fell to a 13-month low on Tuesday as increased OPEC production helped dampen concerns over potential supply disruptions in Iraq and Libya. September Brent crude fell $1.66 to settle at $103.02 per barrel. Brent's $102.65 intraday low was the lowest price since July 1, 2013. The September contract expires on Thursday. U.S. September crude fell 71 cents to settle at $97.37 a barrel, having fallen earlier to $96.81. (Reuters)

Gold Rises As Ukraine Tensions Hurt German Sentiment. Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday on signs that the stand-off between Russia and Ukraine was hurting economic confidence in the euro zone economy. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,309.30 an ounce by 2:55 p.m. EDT (1855 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.5% at $19.91 an ounce, while platinum edged down 0.1% to $1,463.60 an ounce and palladium gained 0.2% to $874.93 an ounce. (Reuters)

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