Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 10 Sep 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 10 Sep 2014, 10:02 AM

Asia Pacific

Japanese Consumer Confidence Dips In August. Japanese consumer confidence worsened for the first time in four months in August, an official survey suggests. According to the Cabinet Office, the consumer sentiment index was 41.2 in August, down from 41.5 in July. An index reading of 50 indicates there are equal numbers of optimists and pessimists. The survey, which includes views on incomes and jobs, comes just a day after data showing Japan's economy shrank 1.8% between April and June. The worse-than-expected fall in GDP was blamed in part on a rise in the nation's consumer sales tax introduced in April to 8% from 5%. (BBC)

Australia Business Conditions Ease, Confidence Resilient. A measure of Australian business conditions pulled back from four-year highs in August as sales and profits eased, while booming conditions in the construction sector contrasted with gloom among miners. National Australia Bank's survey of more than 400 firms showed its index of business conditions halved to +4 in August, so unwinding much of July's 5 points gain. The report's index of business confidence also dipped 2 points to +8, though that remains robust by historical standards. Confidence was strongest in the construction industry which is enjoying a major revival in home building, while mining was the only sector to have a negative reading. (Reuters)

Americas

U.S. Job Openings Hold Near 13-Year High In July. U.S. job openings held near a 13-year high in July while hiring picked up, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor. Job openings were at a seasonally adjusted 4.673 million compared with 4.675 million in June, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday. Job openings are used to measure labor demand. Federal Reserve policymakers are closely monitoring the JOLTS report as they mull their next step on monetary policy. Employers hired 4.872 million people in July, up from 4.791 million in June, the report said. While the quits rate held steady a 1.8%, the overall number of Americans who voluntarily left their jobs in July hit the highest level since June 2008, a sign that more people are increasingly confident that they can find a better job elsewhere. (Reuters)

U.S. Small Business Confidence Edges Slightly Higher In August. U.S. small business optimism edged slightly higher in August as more owners said they expected business conditions to improve in coming months and planned to increase capital spending, according to a survey released on Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business said its Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.4 point to 96.1. Eight of the index's 10 components either improved or showed no change in the survey based on a random sample of 598 small business owners. The job growth indicated in the survey was sluggish, with owners adding an average of only 0.02 workers per firm, and fewer saying they planned to hire more workers in the future. (Reuters)

Canadian Housing Starts Cool In August, Seen Moderating Further. Canadian housing starts cooled more than expected in August, while the previous month was also revised slightly lower, data showed on Tuesday, setting the stage for what is widely expected to be a slowing housing market as 2014 draws to a close. A report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp showed the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts slipped to 192,368 last month from a downwardly revised 199,813 units in July. That was shy of analysts' forecasts for 195,000. July was originally reported as 200,098. (Reuters)

Brazil Rating Outlook Cut To Negative By Moody’s On Growth. Brazil’s credit rating outlook was cut to negative by Moody’s Investors Service, which said slow economic growth is unlikely to improve in the short term. Moody’s affirmed Brazil’s Baa2 rating, its second-lowest investment grade. The change in outlook comes after data last month showed Latin America’s largest economy entered a recession for the first time in five years, and as President Dilma Rousseff seeks election to a second term in October. (Bloomberg)

Europe

UK Industrial Output Sees Biggest Rise For Six Months. UK industrial output saw its biggest monthly rise in six months in July as electricity generation increased, official figures show. Industrial output rose by 0.5% in July after a 0.3% rise in June, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. The increase was stronger than the 0.2% average rise forecast by economists. Separate ONS figures showed the UK goods trade deficit hit its widest level for more than two years in July. The goods trade deficit was £10.2bn, up from £9.4bn in June, the widest monthly deficit since April 2012. The widening came despite a small £500m increase in exports, as imports rose "more significantly", by £1.3bn, the ONS said. (BBC)

No New Debt For Germany In 2015, First Time Since 1969. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Germany would not take on new debt next year for the first time since 1969, underlining the robustness of the country's finances as European partners urge it to do more to boost euro zone growth. Speaking to the lower house of parliament on Tuesday, Schaeuble said budgets that did not include net new borrowing should become the new norm for Germany from 2015 and said Berlin wanted to open the door for more private investment, especially in infrastructure. "We need private investment above everything else to maintain the economic performance and competitiveness of Germany and Europe," he said, adding that Germany needed to look into new types of public-private partnerships. (Reuters)

French Budget Deficit Widens Over Year To July. France's budget deficit widened to 84.1bil euros by the end of July from 80.8bil a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday. It said it had incurred expenses related to new investment programmes, while on the revenue side, the corporate tax take had fallen as a result of the CICE scheme of tax breaks intended to boost hiring and competitivity. (Reuters)

Italy's Economic Growth Will Be 'Around Zero', Says PM Renzi. Italy's Prime Minister has said that Europe's third largest economy will see growth of only "around zero" this year. Matteo Renzi's forecast is lower than the government's previous prediction and comes as the economy tackles its third recession in a decade. "I am not optimistic," Mr Renzi said in a pre-recorded interview to be aired later on Tuesday. It is the first time he has put a figure on likely growth. Lacklustre growth will do little to help the eurozone's own economic woes. In August, official figures In August, official figures showed that Italy's economy had fallen back into recession, after contracting for two quarters in a row. Its gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all the country's goods and services, shrank 0.2% in the second quarter of the year. (BBC)

Currencies

Pound Stabilizes After Scotland-Fueled Selloff. The pound has recovered slightly against the dollar Tuesday, following a selloff sparked by a weekend poll that showed for the first time a majority of Scots favoring independence from the U.K. The pound traded at $1.6116 Tuesday, up from $1.6097 Monday evening but still down sharply from around $1.6327 late Friday. The euro recovered from earlier losses to rise against the pound, trading at 0.8035 pound Tuesday afternoon, compared with £0.8012 Monday. The dollar traded at ¥106.11 Tuesday, compared with ¥106.02 late Monday after briefly touching ¥106.34, its highest level since October 2008. The euro traded at $1.2949, compared with $1.2894 late Monday. It had fallen to $1.2867, its lowest point since July 2013, during Monday trade. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Oil Falls Below $100 To 17-Month Low As Supply Weighs. Brent crude oil prices fell to a 17-month low below $100 per barrel in volatile trade on Tuesday, a fourth straight daily decline as ample supplies weighed, while U.S. crude rose on the expectation of dwindling fuel stockpiles. Brent fell $1.04 to settle at $99.16, the lowest closing price since April 18, 2013. Earlier in the day, Brent slumped to $99.03, the lowest intraday price since May 1, 2013. On Monday, prices slid below $100 for the first time in more than 14 months. Brent is down near 12% so far this quarter, the biggest such drop since the second quarter of 2012. U.S. crude rose 9 cents to settle at $92.75, snapping a three-day losing streak. (Reuters)

Gold Drops Below $1,250/Oz; Platinum Hits 7-Month Low. Gold prices fell below $1,250 an ounce on Tuesday, as technical selling and speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks would hike interest rates earlier than expected sent prices to a three-month low. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,249.34 an ounce by 2:22 p.m., having earlier reached a fresh three-month low at $1,247.15. Silver was down 0.5% at $18.89 an ounce. Among other precious metals, palladium was down 0.8% to $860, having earlier hit a one-month low at $852.30. Platinum fell 0.8% to $1,379.75 an ounce, having reached a seven-month low at $1,376.60. (Reuters)

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