Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 22 Apr 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 22 Apr 2015, 10:24 AM

Malaysia

Petronas Cuts Cost with New Vessels. Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), which is building two floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facilities, said the new vessels would lower the production cost of smaller gas fields. “With the Petronas FLNG 1 (PFLNG 1), we are looking at US$500mil (RM1.85bil) cost saving for a marginal gas producing field,” said Petronas vice-president and venture director LNG project (domestic) Datuk Abdullah Karim (pic). The first such vessel in the world, which is expected to enter production early next year, is designed to operate near an offshore gas field where it will produce, liquefy, store and transfer LNG at sea to bigger ships for exports. PFLNG 1 is designed to operate on shallow waters with a capacity to produce 1.2 million tonnes LNG per year. It has a lifespan of 20 years to 25 years. (The Star)   

Asia

Bank of Japan to Cut Fiscal 2015 Inflation Forecast. The Bank of Japan is considering lowering its 1% inflation forecast for fiscal 2015 amid the continued slump in oil prices and a slow recovery in domestic consumption. The new figure, to be included in a semiannual report due out April 30, will likely be set somewhere between 0.5% and 1%. Consumer prices are expected to remain weak this fiscal year, but it sees inflation hitting the 2% target in both fiscal 2016 and fiscal 2017. (Nikkei)

Thai 2015 Export Growth Seen Slowing. Thailand's export growth is expected to fall to just 1% this year, compared with a 4% rise projected earlier, due to a slow recovery in the global economy and lower oil prices, the commerce minister said on Tuesday. The ministry will issue a new forecast on Friday, General Chatchai Sarikulya told reporters. The central bank last month cut its export growth estimate for this year to 0.8% from 1.0%. Thai exports, a key economic driver, contracted in both 2013 and 2014. (Reuters)

South Korea Finance Minister Says Economy on Steady Recovery. South Korea's economy has escaped sluggish growth seen in the fourth quarter of last year and seems to be on a steady recovery, the country's finance minister told lawmakers on Tuesday. However, despite improvements the recovery momentum has not spread to all part of the economy as capital investment remains shaky and exports have been lagging on weak demand from China, Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan said. (Reuters)

Japan, U.S. Sound Optimistic on TPP Trade Pact Negotiations. Japan's top trade negotiator sounded an optimistic note on Tuesday that he could reach a deal with the United States that is essential to creating a free trade pact covering 12 countries. A senior U.S. State Department official also said on Monday that a deal is within "grabbing distance" as the world's largest and third-largest economies race to conclude bilateral negotiations that cover trade in car parts and farm products. (Reuters)

Europe

ZEW: Global Woes Rattle German Investors. Investor sentiment in Germany has shown an unexpected fall after rising steadily for the past five months, a closely watched survey has indicated. The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment showed confidence among German investors fell to 53.3 points this month, from 54.8 in March. However, analysts said there was no cause for concern. ZEW president Clemens Fuest said Germany was in "good shape", but the weak global economy could hit exports. The index was based on the responses of 238 investment analysts between 7 and 20 April. Economists at the Mannheim-based institute said the investors surveyed expected a "very good situation" to continue for at least the next half-year, adding that German private consumption would strengthen further, but were concerned about Greece's debt crisis as a factor in investors' weaker expectations. (BBC)

Russian Economy Shrinks 2% as Sanctions Bite. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Russia's economy shrank by 2% in the first three months of this year, the first contraction since 2009. He attributed the shrinkage to the pressure of sanctions and the weak oil price. But, addressing MPs, he said the economic situation was not as bad as in 2009 and was stabilising. He said Russia faced "a new reality". He said the heaviest pressure had come from "the main political decision last yearthe return of Crimea to Russia". He estimated that losses as a result of sanctions had dented income from some foreign exports by €25 billion ($26.7 billion), 1.5% of gross domestic product, a figure he said could "increase several times" this year. (BBC)

Swedish Finance Minister Wants to Cut Corporate Tax, Close Loopholes. Sweden should lower the headline corporate tax but limit the possibility for companies to make deductions for interest rate payments, the finance minister wrote in a signed article on Tuesday. Swedish politicians have been trying to close loopholes allowing tax planning through interest rate deductions for a long time. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson wrote in business daily Dagens Industri that the different models proposed by a corporate tax committee last year should not be implemented without changes and that any changes should be introduced only after Jan. 1, 2017. The current corporate tax level in Sweden is 22%. (Reuters)   

Currencies

Dollar Turns Mixed as Euro Inches Up. The dollar was mixed against major currencies on Tuesday, with the euro pivoting to modest gains against the greenback after Eurozone finance ministers moved away from fixing a deadline for Greece to   come up with fiscal reforms. The euro, which was last up 0.05% at $1.0742, had fallen in early trading on a report that European Central Bank staff had proposed to increase the insurance the ECB would demand in return for emergency funding to Greek banks. The report aggravated worries that Greece was heading towards a cash crunch, debt default, and an eventual exit from the currency union. The euro traded as low as $1.0661 before some traders reversed positions. The dollar was last up 0.41% against the yen at 119.68 yen. The dollar index was flat after posting gains earlier attributed in part to worries among investors about Greece's financial plight. (Reuters)

Commodities

Oil Down as Saudis End Yemen Bombing. Oil prices fell on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia announced the end of its military campaign in Yemen, easing tensions in the Middle East, and traders expected another weekly build in U.S. crude stockpiles. The Saudi-led coalition bombing Yemen said its three-week operation against Iran-allied Houthi rebels was over and it would focus now on security, counterterrorism, aid and a political solution for Yemen. U.S. crude's front-month May contract, which expired at the close of Tuesday's session, finished down $1.12, or 2%, at $55.26 a barrel. The nearby June contract, which will become the front-month beginning on Wednesday, settled down $1.27 at $56.61. UK North Sea Brent crude, the more widely used global benchmark for oil, fell $1.37, or 2.1%, to $62.08. (Reuters)

Spot Gold Rises as U.S. Dollar Index Weakens. Gold rose past chart resistance on Tuesday, recouping most of the previous session's losses in choppy, currency-driven trade after the U.S. dollar turned lower and bolstered bullion's appeal. Spot gold was up 0.5% to $1,202.90 an ounce by 1756 GMT after surpassing resistance at $1,200 to touch a session high of $1,204. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up $9.40 an ounce, or 0.8%, at $1,203.10. Silver was up 0.5% at $15.98 an ounce, as platinum eased 0.05% at $1,144 and palladium climbed 0.08% to $770.12. (Reuters)  

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