Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 29 Jul 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 29 Jul 2015, 09:41 AM

Malaysia

Five Ministers Replaced in Cabinet Reshuffle. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak overhauled his cabinet yesterday, naming Datuk Seri Zahid Hamidi as his new number two and replacing four other cabinet ministers. The reshuffle, widely seen as bold and drastic, was not totally unexpected. Among the newly appointed ministers are Larut MP Datuk Hamzah Zainudin (Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism), Padang Terap MP Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid (Education) and Tanjung Malim MP Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan (International Trade and Industry II). (NST)

 

Asia

Japan Retail Sales Rise by a Stronger-Than-Expected 0.9% in June. Retail sales in the world's third-largest economy rose an annual 0.9% in June, beating expectations for a 0.5% rise but still slowing sharply from a 3% spike in the previous month. The report comes after the government recently downgraded its forecasts for consumer prices. It's now expecting a 0.6% rise for the 2015 fiscal year, compared to previous estimates for a 1.4% increase, due to a continued decline in oil prices. (CNBC)

Thailand Cuts 2015 GDP Forecast for Third Time to 3%. Thailand's finance ministry on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecast for the third time this year as a poor performance from the export sector slowed expansion in the trade-dependent economy. The finance ministry now expects Southeast Asia's second-largest economy to grow 3.0% this year, down from the 3.7% forecast three months ago. Thailand now expects exports to shrink 4.0% this year instead of rising 0.2%, Krisada Chinavicharana, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, said. (Reuters)

UAE Slashes Fuel Subsidies, Announces 24% Price Hike. The United Arab Emirates has slashed gasoline subsidies, announcing Tuesday that it will raise the cost of a liter of regular gasoline by 24% amid globally low oil prices that have cut into the country's revenues.The move is part of a wider strategy to phase out subsidies and offset the effect of a drop in revenues. The hike in gasoline prices will likely affect lower-income foreign residents. (AP)

China Central Bank to Make Monetary Policy Changes as Needed. China's central bank said it will use various monetary tools to maintain appropriate levels of liquidity in the second half of this year. It added that the country's main economic indicators are steadily improving. Plunging share markets have added to concerns about the health of the world's second-biggest economy. (Reuters)

 

Americas

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest since September. U.S. consumer confidence fell this month to the lowest level since September. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its index of consumer confidence fell to 90.9 in July from a revised 99.8 in June. That's the lowest since September's reading of 89. Consumers are worried about the job market and rattled by events in Greece and China. Consumers' assessment of current conditions fell slightly to a still-healthy 107.4 from 110.3 in June; but their outlook for the next six months dropped sharply to 79.9 this month, down from 92.8 in June. (AP)

Strong Home Sales, Limited Supply Lift US Home Prices in May. U.S. home prices rose steadily in May, pushed higher by a healthy increase in sales this year. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index climbed 4.9% in May from 12 months earlier, down slightly from a 5% pace in April, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Home sales have jumped in recent months as an improving economy boosts hiring and enables more people to afford a purchase. (AP)

U.S. Homeownership Hits 35 Year-Low. U.S. homeownership dropped to a 35-year low in the second quarter as more Americans opted to rent. The seasonally adjusted home ownership rate fell to 63.5%. This is the lowest for the seasonally adjusted series which started in 1980. The drop in ownership underscores the damage inflicted on housing by the recession and the economy's subsequent slow recovery from the downturn. The homeownership rate peaked at 69.4% in 2004. (Reuters)

Brazil Investment Grade Rating Is At Risk, S&P Warns. Standard & Poor's on Tuesday said Brazil could lose its investment-grade rating in the coming year if fallout from a number of corruption investigations further stymies economic growth and implementation of austerity measures. S&P affirmed Brazil at BBB-minus, its lowest investment grade rating, and revised the outlook on that rating to negative from stable, signaling a downgrade is possible over 12 to 18 months. Both Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have the country at BBB, with a negative outlook. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Britain's Economy Grows 0.7% in Second Quarter. Britain's economy picked up speed in the second quarter of 2015, when it expanded by 0.7% compared with the previous three-month period. The Office of National Statistics said Tuesday that the economic growth in the April-June period accelerated from a rate of 0.4% in the previous quarter. The data release comes only days after Bank of England of Governor Mark Carney suggested that interest rates could rise from their record low of 0.5% as soon as the end of the year. (AP)

German 'Wisemen' Say Eurozone States Should Be Able to Go Bankrupt. The German government's panel of independent economic advisers favors the creation of a sovereign insolvency mechanism for eurozone states to prevent future crises and says countries should be able to leave the currency bloc as a last resort. The council of five experts known as the "wisemen", said the Greek debt crisis had underscored the urgent need for further reforms to make the euro zone more stable. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Dollar Rebounds against Euro, Yen as Focus Turns to Fed. The U.S. dollar rebounded against the euro and yen on Tuesday after traders took profits from gains in those currencies and favored the greenback on expectations that the Federal Reserve could take a hawkish bias in a policy statement on Wednesday. The euro was last down 0.41% against the dollar at $1.10430. The dollar was up 0.31% against the yen at 123.620 yen. The dollar was last up 0.11% against the franc at 0.96350 franc. The dollar index was last up 0.25% at 96.745. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Steadies after 4-day Loss. Oil prices steadied on Tuesday, with Brent recovering from near six-month lows and U.S. crude settling more than 1% higher as bets for a drop in U.S. stockpiles offset concern over a global oil supply glut and China's stock market meltdown. Brent futures settled down 17 cents, or 0.3%, at $53.30 a barrel. It had hit $52.28 earlier in the session, its lowest since early February, on concern about the stock market plunge in China, the world's largest energy consumer. U.S. crude futures settled up 59 cents, or 1.2%, at $47.98 a barrel. (Reuters)

Japan’s LNG Imports Fall in June. Japan’s imports of liquefied natural gas dropped 2.8% in June, as compared to the same month a year ago. The world’s largest buyer of the chilled gas imported 6.63 million tonnes of LNG in June. Japan paid 366,500 million yen for LNG imports in June, down 37.3% on year. LNG use by Japan’s ten independent regional electric power companies dropped 8% in June to 4.16 million tonnes of the chilled gas. (LNG World)

Gold Edges Higher as Investors Await Fed Meeting. Gold firmed on Tuesday but remained near 5.5-year lows as markets braced for this week's Federal Reserve meeting, at which policymakers are expected to give further clues on the timing of a U.S. rate increase. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,095.28 an ounce at 1826 GMT, not far from Friday's low of $1,077, its weakest since early 2010. Spot platinum was up 0.1% at $980.25 an ounce, near last week's 6.5-year low. Silver was up 0.9% at $14.67 an ounce and palladium was up 0.9% at $617.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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