Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 7 Aug 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 07 Aug 2015, 09:44 AM

Global

World Food Prices Fall in July to Lowest in 6 Years. Global food prices fell in July to their lowest level in almost six years led by falling dairy and vegetable oil costs. The Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 164.6 points in July, down 1.0% from June. The dairy price index dropped 7.2% from the previous month, mainly due to lower import demand from China, the Middle East and North Africa. The July vegetable oil price index was some 5.5% below its June level, caused by a fall in international palm oil prices. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

Container Tariff to Increase 15% from Sept 1. The Transport Ministry has approved a container tariff revision, to be implemented in two phases, and with an average increase of 15% in each. The revised tariff covers container terminal handling charges for import, export, transshipment, shifting and re-stow, storage charge for containers and handling charge for heavy lift or uncontainerised cargo. Phase one of the revision is effective Sept 1, 2015 and the second from Sept 1, 2018. (Bernama)

 

Asia-Pacific

South Korea Revises Tax Code to Boost Household Wealth, Jobs. South Korea plans to allow financial institutions to sell a new savings product eligible for steep tax advantages from next year to help improve household finances, the government said on Thursday. It also plans to offer a tax incentive to companies hiring young people aged between 15 and 29, the finance ministry said in a statement covering annual revisions of the tax code. The schemes are still subject to parliamentary approval. (Reuters)

Thailand's Consumer Mood Worsens. Thai consumer confidence fell to a 14-month low in July, dented by slow economic growth, contracting exports and low commodity prices. The consumer confidence index of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce dropped to 73.4 in July from 74.4 in June, its seventh consecutive monthly decline. The reading was the lowest since May 2014. Record high household debt levels have curbed private consumption, which makes up half of the economy. (Reuters)

Australia Creates More Jobs, but Also More Jobless. Australia's unemployment rate rose to its highest in six months in July even as the number of jobs added shot up almost four times more than expected, a mixed bag that did little to clarify the outlook for another rate cut. Thursday's data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed 38,500 new jobs were added in July, far higher than the 10,000 analysts expected. Yet the jobless rate also surprised by ticking up to 6.3%, from a revised 6.1% the month before. (Reuters)

 

USA

Jobless Claims Edge up, but Labor Market Still Solid. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, suggesting labor market conditions are continuing to tighten. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 270,000 for the week ended August 1, the Labor Department said on Thursday. It was the 22nd consecutive week that claims held below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated with a strengthening labor market. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 6,500 to 268,250 last week. (Reuters)

 

Europe

German Manufacturing Orders Surge in Sign of Robust Growth. German factory orders surged in June in a sign of robust growth. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, rose 2.0% after sliding a revised 0.3% in May, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Thursday. The typically volatile number compares with a median survey estimate of a 0.3% increase. Export orders jumped 4.8% in June, driven by an 8.8% increase in investment-goods demand from outside the euro area. Domestic factory orders dropped 2%. (Bloomberg)

Bank of England Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged. The Bank of England left its key interest rate at a record low Thursday, as policymakers saw no need to put the brakes on the U.K. economy amid slowing growth in Asia and risks from the Greek debt crisis. Policymakers left the rate at 0.5% and refrained from pumping more money into the economy. There is little pressure to raise rates with inflation at zero. But Governor Mark Carney has signaled the bank is "moving closer" to a rate increase as economic growth remains among the fastest among advanced economies. (AP)

U.K. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Falls on Oil & Gas. U.K. industrial production unexpectedly fell in June as North Sea producers cut output for the first time in three months. Total production fell 0.4% from May, when it rose a downwardly revised 0.3%. An increase of 0.1% was expected by economists in a survey. The fall in industrial output was driven by a 5.8% drop in oil and gas production, the biggest decline since January last year. Factory output increased a larger-than-forecast 0.2%. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Falls as Investors Brace for U.S. Payrolls. The dollar retreated against major currencies on Thursday as investors balanced their positions ahead of Friday's crucial U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar index fell 0.2% but was still on track for a two-week rise of about 0.5%. The Bank of England pointed to a possible increase in rates early next year. Following the dovish message from the Bank of England, the pound fell against the dollar. Sterling fell 0.5% to $1.5520. The dollar slipped 0.2% versus the yen, to 124.67 yen, while the euro rose against the greenback to $1.0934. (Reuters)

Ringgit Falls to 17-Year Low. Growing concerns over a financial scandal and speculation that Malaysia's foreign exchange reserves dropped below US$100 billion last month sent the ringgit crashing to 17-year lows against the greenback yesterday. The ringgit fell to 3.9112 to the United States dollar - its weakest since September 1998. Malaysia set the peg at 3.8000 at the time, amid the Asian financial crisis. Malaysia's foreign exchange holdings have fallen 13 per cent this year to US$100.5 billion as of July 15. (Straits Times)

 

Commodities

Oil at Multi-Month Lows. Oil set multi-month lows on Thursday as investors and traders sought clues about the market's next bottom after a large drop in U.S. crude inventories failed to boost prices. A bigger-than-expected build in U.S. gasoline stockpiles last week proved more important to investors than crude storage numbers. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, versus forecasts for a 1.5 million drop. Brent settled down 7 cents at $49.52 a barrel, after setting a six-month low at $48.88. U.S. crude finished 49 cents lower at $44.66. (Reuters)

Gold Edges Up as Greenback Retreats. Gold edged higher on Thursday, supported by the retreating U.S. dollar and a tumble in global equities as traders awaited U.S. employment data seen as key to determining when the Federal Reserve may raise interest hikes. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,090.11 an ounce by 1759 GMT. The metal breached important technical support at $1,100 after a deep rout in late July pushed it as low as $1,077. In other metals, spot palladium gained 1.1% to $597.25 an ounce, as platinum rose 0.4% to $951 per ounce, not far from a 6-1/2 year low hit earlier in the week. Silver was up 1% at $14.67 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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