Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 13 Aug 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 13 Aug 2015, 09:30 AM

Malaysia

Natural Rubber Output up 36.8% in June. Malaysia's natural rubber production in June 2015 rose 36.8% or 14,367 tonnes to 53,383 tonnes compared to the previous month, the Statistics Department said. However, on a year-on-year basis, the production showed a decline of 3.9% or 2,191 tonnes. On a month-on-month basis, the smallholding and estate sectors recorded an increase in production at 36.4% and 41.7%, respectively. Productivity in June 2015 increased 41.4% to 124.6 kg per hectare from May 2015, but decreased 6.0% or 7.9 kg per hectare in the same month last year. (Bernama)

 

Asia

Indonesia's President Reshuffles Economy Team as Growth Sags. Indonesian President Joko Widodo put two experienced technocrats into key economic management posts on Wednesday in a cabinet reshuffle designed to reassure investors worried about a policy drift that has allowed growth to slip to a six-year low. Darmin Nasution, who was central bank governor from 2010 to 2013, was chosen to replace Sofyan Djalil as chief economic minister. Another unexpected choice was the appointment of Harvard-educated financial executive Thomas T. Lembong as trade minister. This may help shore up confidence as the rupiah languishes at its lowest levels against the U.S. dollar in more than 17 years. (Reuters)

China July Fiscal Spending Jumps 24% to Three-Month High. Government spending in China jumped by nearly a quarter in July to a three-month high as authorities accelerated spending on state projects and hiked wages of civil servants. Beijing hopes faster government spending will give a much-needed boost to flagging economic growth. Fiscal expenditure jumped 24.1% last month from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said, as spending by the central government leapt 49% on the year to 236 billion yuan ($36.7 billion). That was the biggest annual rise in fiscal expenditure since April, when outlays leapt 33%. (Reuters)

China July Factory Output up 6.0% Year-to-Year. China's factory output rose 6.0% in July from a year earlier, missing market forecasts and reinforcing expectations that the economy is in need of fresh stimulus to prevent a deeper slowdown. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 6.6% rise. Retail sales rose10.5% in July from last year, slightly below forecasts for 10.6% growth. (Reuters)

India's Consumer Inflation Hits Record Low of 3.78% in July. India's annual CPI slowed down to 3.78% in July, its lowest level on record and below the 4.42% annual rise predicted by analysts in a poll, mainly due to sharp fall in food inflation. Core CPI was estimated to have risen around 4 to 4.5% in July from a year earlier, slowing down from around 4.85 to 5% in June, according to a survey of five analysts and traders. This increases chances of RBI cutting interest rate one more time in this fiscal year ending March. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Eurozone Industrial Production Lower-Than-Expected in June. Industrial output in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell by more than expected in June. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said industrial production in eurozone fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, but was still 1.2% higher year-on-year. This was below analysts' expectations of a 0.2% fall. The slowdown in June was most pronounced in the eurozone's main economies Germany, France and Italy. The largest fall in output came for factories in the durable consumer goods and capital goods sector. (Reuters)

U.K.’s Jobless Number May Signal Uneven Labor Market Recovery. U.K. unemployment rose in the second quarter and wage growth slowed, suggesting the recovery of the labor market may prove uneven. The number of people looking for work increased 25,000 to 1.85 million while employment declined by 63,000 in the period, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. The jobless rate held at 5.6%, while the employment rate rose from a year earlier, to 73.4%. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose an annual 2.4% in the second quarter, down from 3.2% the previous month. Underlying pay growth stayed at 2.8%, in line with estimates. (Bloomberg)

 

USA

US Hiring Reaches Six-Month High in June. U.S. employers filled more of their available jobs in June, evidence that steady economic growth is putting more Americans to work. The Labor Department said Wednesday that total hiring rose 2.3% to 5.18 million in June, the most in six months and second-highest total since the recession ended in June 2009. Separately, the number of Americans quitting their jobs inched up 0.6% to 2.75 million. That is below the seven-year high of 2.78 million reached in January. (AP)

US Budget Deficit Swells in July Due to Calendar Quirk. The U.S. government ran a much higher budget deficit in July than a year ago. The Treasury Department said Wednesday that the July deficit totaled $149.2 billion, up from a deficit of $94.6 billion a year earlier. The deterioration stemmed mainly from the fact that Aug. 1 fell on a Saturday. As a result, the government paid out $42 billion in August benefits in late July instead. Through the first 10 months of this budget year, the deficit stood at $465.5 billion, 1.1% higher than a year ago. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the year-end total will drop to around $425 billion, making it the lowest deficit since 2007. (AP)

 

Currencies

Ringgit Weakens Beyond 4 Per USD. Malaysia’s ringgit slid beyond 4 to the dollar for the first time since 1998 as investors flee the nation’s assets amid a slowing economy. China’s surprise devaluation of the yuan lumped more pressure on the ringgit, which led losses in Asia Wednesday and is the region’s worst performer in the past 12 months. Brent crude has more than halved from a 2014 peak, hurting revenue for oil-exporting Malaysia. The ringgit tumbled 2% to 4.0395 a dollar at the close in Kuala Lumpur in its biggest loss since 1998, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)

Dollar Falls After China Moves. The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday to its lowest in about a month against a basket of major currencies, on doubts over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September given China's devaluation of the yuan. In China, the spot yuan fell to 6.4510 per dollar, its weakest since August 2011. The euro was up 1.25% against the dollar at $1.11810. The dollar was last down 0.92% against the Japanese yen at 124 yen. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Steady on U.S. Stockpile Decline, Dollar Weakness. Oil ended up on Wednesday as a weaker dollar and lower U.S. crude stockpiles provided a modest bounce off six-year lows hit the previous session. Crude stockpiles in the United States fell by 1.7 million barrels last week, government data showed. U.S. crude futures settled up 22 cents, or 0.5%, at $43.30 a barrel. Brent closed up 48 cents, or 1%, at $49.66 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Hits 3-Week Top. Gold rose for a fifth session in a row on Wednesday, hitting a fresh three-week high as the dollar and global equities slid on concerns over China's devaluation of its currency. The metal has now recovered more than 4% from a 5.5-year low of $1,077 hit during a late-July rout. Spot gold rose as much as 1.2% to its highest since July 20 at $1,121.40 an ounce and was up 0.9% at $1,119.10 by 1413 GMT. U.S. gold for December delivery gained 1.4% to settle at $1,123.60 an ounce. Spot silver rose to a one-month high of $15.58 an ounce. Platinum was up 1% at $993.50 an ounce and palladium climbed 3.2% to $621.25. (Reuters)

 

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