Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 8 Sep 2015

kiasutrader
Publish date: Tue, 08 Sep 2015, 09:23 AM

Asia

China Revises Down 2014 GDP Growth to 7.3% from 7.4%. China has revised its annual economic growth rate in 2014 to 7.3% from the previously released figure of 7.4%, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. GDP stood at 63.6 trillion yuan ($10.00 trillion) last year, down by 32.4 billion yuan from the initial estimate, the bureau said in a statement on its website. The bureau has revised down 2014 growth of the services sector by 0.3 percentage points to 7.8%, which helped drag down estimated GDP growth rate, it said. After the revision, the services sector accounted for 48.1% of GDP last year, down from the previously announced 48.2%, the bureau said. (Reuters)

Japan Q2 GDP Shrinks Less than Expected on Inventory Gains. Japan's economy shrank less than expected in the second quarter although capital expenditure fell more than originally forecast, revised data showed, keeping policymakers under pressure to do more to energise the fragile recovery. Analysts expect any rebound in July-September growth to be feeble as factory output unexpectedly fell in July and China's slowdown dampened prospects for a solid recovery in exports. The world's third-largest economy shrank an annualised 1.2 percent in April-June, less than the initial estimate of a 1.6 percent contraction, Cabinet Office data showed on Tuesday. (Reuters)

China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Fall in August on Yuan Support. China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell by a record last month as the central bank sold dollars to support the yuan after the biggest devaluation in two decades spurred bets on continued weakness. The currency hoard declined by $93.9 billion to $3.56 trillion at the end of August, from $3.65 trillion a month earlier. Economists surveyed had forecast a median $3.58 trillion. The reserves’ decline illustrates the cost to China as it props up its currency and seeks to stem an outflow of capital. (Bloomberg)

Foreign Corporate Investment in Thailand Plunges in 1st Half. Applications by foreign companies to invest in Thailand have nosedived following the introduction in January of rules that reduce or remove incentives in certain industries. According to the Thailand Board of Investment, in the January to June period, foreign businesses submitted requests to invest 26.8 billion baht ($757 million) in the country, down 89% on the year. The plunge is largely a reaction to a jump in demand at the end of last year, before the changes took effect. The number of applications also shrank, sliding 46% to 219. The large gap in the ratios suggests that companies may be investing only small amounts to see how the new system plays out. (Nikkei)

Indonesia Scales Back Widodo’s 5-Year Power Plant Plan. Indonesia's energy czar on Monday significantly scaled back the president's signature five-year plan for 35,000 megawatts of additional power capacity, saying less than half of that target can be achieved. The setback comes less than five months after President Joko Widodo launched the plan, calling it essential to resolving endemic electricity shortages and reviving economic growth. Rizal Ramli, who oversees energy, in addition to his role as chief maritime minister said the initial plan was not viable because state-owned power firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) did not have the ability to use all of the added capacity. (Reuters)

Indonesia Is More Exposed to Capital Flight Than Malaysia - S&P. Rocked by a political scandal and falling oil prices, Malaysia has been dominating headlines in recent months as the ringgit leads a drop in Asian currencies. However, Standard & Poor’s says Indonesia is more exposed to capital flight. “The thing about Malaysia is that the capital market is deeper there, so there’s less reliance on foreign capital among corporates or banks to fund their growth,” said Kyran Curry, S&P’s director of sovereign ratings in Singapore. Curry also said that Indonesia is much more vulnerable to shifts in outflows and inflows. (Bloomberg)

Taiwan August Exports Fall for 7th Month, Outlook Bleaker. Taiwan's exports fell for a seventh straight month in August, raising the prospect that full-year growth will likely tumble to a 2009 low amid softening global demand for its tech products. Exports last month contracted 14.8 percent from a year earlier, worse than a forecast 13.5 percent decline in a Reuters poll and an 11.9 percent fall in July. The finance ministry said on Monday it would be difficult for exports to post year-on-year growth for the rest of this year. (Reuters)

 

Europe

German Industrial Production Rebounds in Sign of Solid Recovery. German industrial production increased in July, signaling that Europe’s largest economy is weathering the headwinds of slowing global growth. Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, rose 0.7% after dropping a revised 0.9% in June, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Monday. The number compares with a median estimate of a 1.1% gain in a survey. Industrial production advanced 0.5% from a year earlier. German manufacturers are benefiting from rising domestic demand and continued expansion in the euro area. (Bloomberg)

Thousands of EU Farmers Protest Price Slump. Thousands of farmers protested outside European Union headquarters on Monday to demand more aid and higher prices for their milk and pig meat. The European Commission responded with a support plan worth 500 million euros ($560 million). European Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen announced the support plan, which seeks to immediately ease the debt load of farmers, many of whom are selling milk below production prices. The market has become oversupplied since a system of quotas was reformed this year and some markets were closed off. Some farmers have called for a reintroduction of quotas on production or more direct aid from their governments to pay the bills. (AP)

 

Currencies

Dollar Firmer Vs. Yen and Swiss Franc as Stocks Stabilize. The dollar rose against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Monday, regaining some poise as European and Japanese stock markets started the week with gains, helping bolster risk sentiment. Volumes waned in the European session with the United States closed for a national holiday. The dollar was up 0.3% against the yen at 119.35, moving away from the day's low of 118.66 and taking back some of Friday's 1% tumble. It was up 0.4% against the Swiss franc at 0.9750. The euro was slightly firmer at $1.1155. (Reuters)

Ringgit Hits 1998 Low on US Jobs Data, Oil Price Drop. The ringgit fell to a new 1998 low as oil prices extended their decline and after a report showed the US jobless rate was at its lowest in seven years, adding weight to the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates. Brent crude has halved in price during the past 12 months, cutting government revenue for oil-exporting Malaysia. The ringgit last stood at 4.33 a dollar in Kuala Lumpur, the lowest level since January 1998 when it reached a record 4.8850. The currency dropped 1.4% last week, an 11th straight weekly decline that was the longest since 1993. (Bloomberg)

Korean Won Falls below 1,200 A Dollar for First Time since 2011. South Korea’s won dropped to the weakest level in almost four years on concern the nation’s export outlook is worsening as the U.S. moves closer to raising interest rates. Exports have deteriorated amid a global economic slowdown, Trade Minister Yoon Sang Jick said in a prepared comments released by the ministry on Monday after the country last week reported that shipments in August fell the most since 2009. The won declined 0.9%, the most since Aug. 12, to close at 1,204.02 a dollar in Seoul. (Bloomberg)

 

Commodities

Oil Falls More Than 3% on Oversupply, China Equity Losses. Oil fell more than 3% on Monday, hit by weaker Chinese equities and record North Sea crude production data that added to global oversupply concerns. Brent futures contracts fell $1.98 to settle at $47.76 a barrel, a 3.73% loss. U.S. crude fell $1.80 to $44.25 per barrel by 1848 GMT, with trading volume of around 75,000 lots less than one-quarter the norm due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday. Oil has fallen almost 60% since June 2014 on a global supply glut. (Reuters)

Gold Eases Back Toward 2.5-Week Low after U.S. Jobs Data. Gold eased back towards its lowest since mid-August on Monday as stock markets firmed and the dollar steadied, and after U.S. payrolls data failed to provide clarity on the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,119.10 an ounce by 1830 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down $3 an ounce at $1,118.40 with activity subdued by the U.S. Labor Day holiday. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.6% at $14.48 an ounce, while platinum was down 0.6% at $982.75 an ounce and palladium was up 1.2% at $578.25 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 0 of 0 comments

Post a Comment