Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 10 Sep 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 10 Sep 2015, 09:48 AM

Malaysia

Malaysia Seen Holding Policy Rate Steady. Bank Negara is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 3.25% at a policy review on Friday amid a plunging ringgit and global market uncertainty, a poll showed. All 13 economists were unanimous that the central bank will not change its overnight policy rate (OPR), due to risks posed to Malaysia's economic growth by lower commodity prices, capital outflows, the weakened ringgit and a potential rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The central bank last raised its key interest rate in July 2014 from 3.0% to 3.25%. (Reuters)

 

Asia

Indonesia Unveils Stimulus Package to Lure Investment. Indonesia's president on Wednesday unveiled the first installment of a stimulus package aimed at luring more investment, boosting consumer spending, and supporting a currency that has weakened to 17-year lows. In a live television broadcast, Widodo announced a series of measures to attract investment, such as streamlining dozens of overlapping trade and industry regulations, simplifying the permission process for "strategic projects", and easing rules for foreigners opening bank accounts in foreign currency. The government also announced it would provide more rice for the poor and look for cheaper foreign beef to tame inflation. (Reuters)

Li Says Chinese Economic Growth in 'Proper Range'. China's No. 2 leader tried Wednesday to mollify foreign concerns about its economic slowdown, saying growth is in the "proper range" and Beijing has no plans to allow its currency to decline further. Speaking at a meeting of the World Economic Forum in the eastern city of Dalian, Premier Li Keqiang said Beijing will stick to plans for market-opening reforms despite recent "fluctuations" in economic performance. Li said current growth, forecast by the government at about 7.0% for the full year, is acceptable so long as it generates enough jobs. (AP)

China Is Changing How It Reports GDP to Meet IMF's Standard. China is tweaking the way it reports quarterly GDP data, paving the way for the nation to adopt an IMF standard as it presses ahead with the goal of gaining reserve currency status for the yuan. The new reporting method will create conditions for China to adopt the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard and will better reflect short-term fluctuations in the economy, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Wednesday. (Reuters)

Abe Pledges Corporate Tax Cut as Investments Slump. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged to follow through with a corporate-tax cut, a day after government data underscored businesses’ reluctance to ramp up domestic investment. In a message read out at a Bank of America Merrill Lynch event in Tokyo, Abe said that he would lower the effective corporate tax rate by at least 3.3 percentage points "next year" and will "aim to go beyond that if possible." Some of the reduction that Abe referred to has already been implemented, and the rate will fall to 31.33% in the fiscal year starting April 2016 from 34.62% in fiscal 2014, according to information published by the Ministry of Finance. (Bloomberg)

Japan July Core Machinery Orders Down 3.6%. Japan's core machinery orders unexpectedly fell 3.6 percent in July from the previous month, Cabinet Office data showed on Thursday, down for a second straight month and casting doubt about the strength of capital expenditures. The month-on-month fall in core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, compared with a 3.7 percent increase expected by economists. (Reuters)

 

USA

U.S. Job Openings Hit Record High as Labor Market Tightens. U.S. job openings surged to a record high in July and employers appeared to have trouble filling openings, the latest signal of an increasingly tight labor market. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, is one of the job market metrics on Fed Chair Janet Yellen's so-called dashboard. Job openings increased 430,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.8 million, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. That was the highest level since the series started in December 2000. Hiring, however, dipped to 5.0 million in July from 5.2 million the prior month. (Reuters)

U.S. Services Data Suggests Q2 GDP May Be Revised Up. U.S. economic growth for the second quarter is likely to be revised slightly higher after data on Wednesday showed a more robust pace of consumer spending than previously estimated. The Commerce Department's quarterly services survey, or QSS, showed consumption, including healthcare spending, increased at a faster pace than the government had assumed in its second estimate of GDP published last month. According to JPMorgan, the QSS suggested second-quarter GDP growth could be raised to a 3.9% pace from the 3.7% reported last month. (Reuters)

 

Europe

U.K. Manufacturing Output Falls on Weaker Exports. Production by U.K. factories fell in July due to weak exports, a bad omen for the performance of the British economy as it faces increased global uncertainty. U.K. manufacturing output dipped 0.8% on the month, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday, and was 0.5% lower than a year earlier--the first annual fall in almost two years. A large portion of the fall in manufacturing production was due to summer shutdowns of vehicle factories, the ONS said, but official statistics also showed increased evidence that a slowdown in global trade is hurting Britain's exporters. (Market Watch)

UK Exports Sink to Lowest since September 2010. UK exports took a hit in July, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics, with the value shrinking by £2.3bn to £22.8bn, the lowest since September 2010. The sharp slowdown came at a time when sterling was hovering at an eight-year high against the euro, a major trade currency, suggesting that the strong pound played a role. The ONS said the decline is attributed to decreases in semi-manufactures (specifically chemicals) of £1.0 billion and finished manufactures of £0.8 billion. Imports, meanwhile, increased by £0.3bn to £33.9bn on the month. (Financial Times)

 

Currencies

Dollar Gains Trimmed by Wall Street Selloff. The dollar rose on Wednesday, riding a global equities rally that helped reassure investors along with signs that governments in China and Japan were readying fresh economic stimulus. The dollar was last up 0.60% against the yen at 120.54 yen, while the euro was flat at $1.12 after falling as low as $1.1131. The dollar index, which tracks a basket of major currencies, was flat after being ahead most of Wednesday. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Falls as Supply Glut, Demand Concerns Apply Pressure. Oil prices fell nearly 4% on Wednesday, pressured by ample supply and concerns about demand being curbed by slowing economic growth. Brent fell $1.94, or 3.92%, to settle at $47.58 after climbing 4% in the previous session. U.S. crude dropped $1.79, or 3.9%, to settle at $44.15, having eased on Tuesday as trading resumed after the Monday's Labor Day holiday. Brent and U.S. crude fell to session lows in post-settlement trading after American Petroleum Institute data showed U.S. crude stocks rose 2.1 million barrels last week. (Reuters)

Gold at 4-Week Low as Stocks Rally, Dollar Rises. Gold fell to a four-week low on Wednesday as stock markets strengthened and the dollar firmed, though prices remained hemmed into a narrow range ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Spot gold was down 1.2% at $1,107.61 an ounce at 1832 GMT, after dropping 1.8% to $1,101.11, the lowest since Aug. 11. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 1.7% at $1,102 an ounce. Spot platinum fell as much as 2.9% to a two-week low at $974 an ounce. Silver was down 1.7% at $14.56 an ounce and palladium fell 1.3% to $576.50. (Reuters)

 

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