Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 14 Sep 2015

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Publish date: Mon, 14 Sep 2015, 09:34 AM

Global

APEC Finance Ministers Say Will Refrain from Competitive Devaluation. Finance ministers from APEC group said on Friday they were committed to addressing weaknesses in their economies but stressed they would not seek to gain a competitive edge by weakening their currencies. "We will refrain from competitive devaluation and resist all forms of protectionism," ministers from the 21-member group said in a statement at the end of a meeting on the Philippine island of Cebu. Speaking at a closing ceremony, China's vice finance minister said volatility in Chinese stock and currency markets was temporary. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

Najib to Announce Economic Measures on Monday. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak is expected to announce measures to strengthen the economy on Monday as falling commodity prices weigh on growth and the ringgit currency plumbs near 18-year lows. Najib is expected to announce the new measures at around 11:30 pm after a weekly meeting of the economic council on Monday, officials at the Prime Minister's office said on Saturday, without giving details. Last month, he set up a special economic committee to propose immediate and medium-term measures to strengthen the economy and to restore investor confidence. (Reuters)

BNM Policy Rate Stays at 3.25%. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance and left the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.25% for the seventh straight Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and the fifth of six such meetings scheduled for this year. In its monetary policy statement, BNM maintained its full year GDP forecast at 4.5% - 5.5% and reiterated that the current OPR remains supportive of economic activity despite downside risks to growth. (See Economic Viewpoint: BNM MPC Meeting)

 

Asia

China Fixed-Asset Investment Tumbles to Lowest Since 2000. China’s fixed-asset investment rose at the slowest pace in 15 years and industrial production trailed analyst estimates, raising further question marks over the effectiveness of government efforts to revive growth. Investment excluding rural households climbed 10.9% in the first eight months, the National Statistics Bureau said Sunday, versus 11.2% median projection of economists surveyed. Industrial output rose 6.1% in August from a year earlier, missing the 6.5% estimate. Retail sales rose 10.8% in August, beating the projected 10.6% gain and July’s 10.5% rise. (Bloomberg)

China Issues State-Firm Reform Plans, Expects Results by 2020. China issued some details on Sunday on plans to reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including the introduction of "mixed ownership" by bringing in private investment, and said it expected decisive results by 2020. State firms will be allowed to bring in "various investors" to help diversify their share ownership, and more state firms will be encouraged to restructure to pave the way for stock listings, Xinhua said. Private investors will be encouraged to buy stakes in state firms, buy convertible bonds issued by state firms, or swap shares with state firms. (Reuters)

China August New Loans Fall as Lending to Support Stock Market Fades. Chinese banks extended 809.6 billion yuan ($127.04 billion) of new loans in August, less than expected as the impact of the government's massive stock market rescue on the financial system faded. Banks had made 1.48 trillion yuan ($232.24 billion) of new loans in July, the highest monthly reading since 2009. Economists believe that figure was heavily inflated by Beijing's move to pump billions into equity markets through banks and other agencies to avert a full-blown crash, and did not signal any improvement in weak loan demand in the broader economy. (Reuters)

Lee Turns Focus on Next Generation After Winning Singapore Vote. Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong signaled an increasing focus on meeting the aspirations of the nation’s next generation as he prepares to form a new government after winning this week’s election. He said the election result shows that the young people understands what is at stake and support what they are doing. The People’s Action Party boosted its share of the popular vote to 69.9% and took 83 out of 89 parliamentary seats in the election. After the 2011 election, the government shifted further from a decades-long policy of maintaining budget surpluses to boost spending on lower-income families and the elderly. (Bloomberg)

India's Factory Output Rises in July as Data Revisions Continue. India’s factory output rose more than estimated in July amid data revisions, clouding the outlook for investors who’re looking at underlying indicators to assess the true strength of the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Industrial production grew 4.2% in July from a year earlier, the Statistics Ministry said in a statement, compared with a 3.6% median prediction in a survey of 34 economists. However output slowed from the previous month, after June’s growth figure was raised to 4.4% from 3.8%. (Bloomberg)

Japan Business Mood Rebounds. Japanese business sentiment turned positive in July-September and companies stuck to upbeat spending plans, a government survey showed. An index gauging sentiment at large manufacturers stood at plus 11.0 in July-September, rebounding from minus 6.0 in the previous quarter, a joint survey by the Finance Ministry and a research arm of the Cabinet Office showed on Friday. Companies plan to raise capital expenditure by 6.1% over the business year that started in April, revised up from the previous poll's 5.9% gain, the survey showed. (Reuters)

South Korea Central Bank Freezes Rates. South Korea's central bank kept its policy interest rate steady on Friday, a widely expected decision as it assesses the effects of its two rate cuts this year, as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on raising rates. The Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee left its base rate unchanged at 1.50%, a media official said without elaborating. Thirty out of the 31 analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast no rate change on Friday. (Reuters)

 

USA

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Falls to One-Year Low. U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since September last year, a survey released on Friday showed. The University of Michigan's preliminary September reading on the overall consumer sentiment index slid to 85.7, compared with the final reading of 91.9 in August. It was also lower than the median forecast of 91.2 among economists polled. September's consumer sentiment index was the lowest since September 2014. The survey's barometer of current economic conditions fell to 100.3 from 105.1 in August. (Reuters)

U.S. Producer Prices Were Unchanged as Inflation Remains Weak. A gauge of U.S. business prices held steady in August, suggesting inflation remains muted amid falling oil prices and a stronger dollar. The producer-price index, which measures the prices companies receive for goods and services, was unchanged in August after climbing 0.2% in July, the Labor Department said Friday. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 0.3% in August, the same pace as the prior two months. Economists surveyed had expected overall prices would fall 0.1%, and core prices would rise 0.1%. (WSJ)

U.S. Budget Deficit Narrows to $64 Billion in August. The United States posted a budget deficit of $64 billion in August, down about 50% from the same period last year, the Treasury Department said on Friday. A Treasury official said the August deficit was smaller this year mostly due to $42 billion in payments that were shifted into last month from July. The current fiscal year-to-date deficit stood at $530 billion at the end of last month. Receipts in August totaled $211 billion, while outlays stood at $275 billion. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Eurozone Growth Too Weak to Create Enough Jobs - ECB. Economic growth in the Eurozone is still too weak to create a sufficient number of jobs, European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said on Friday. "When inflation is weak, the best way to bring it up to the 2% objective is to support economic activity," Coeure said. He added that growth and employment are therefore the prerequisites for price stability. (Reuters)

German Finance Minister Schaeuble Warns of Market Bubble. The global economy faces a financial bubble from central banks pumping cash into economies, Germany's finance minister has warned. He added that economic reforms should not be neglected in favour of action from central banks. The comments come after the European Central Bank said it would extend its stimulus programme if needed. Mr Schaeuble has repeatedly warned against an over-reliance on central bank stimulus to prop up economies. (BBC)

 

Currencies

Dollar Drifts Lower Before Possible U.S. Interest Rate Hike. The dollar drifted lower on Friday in thin, listless trading ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policymaking meeting that may yield the first interest rate increase in the United States in nearly a decade. The dollar index was last off 0.35% and reflected a 0.60% decline in the dollar against the euro. The yen was flat against the dollar at 120.5 yen and mixed against other major currencies. The dollar gave up early gains against the Swiss franc and was last off 0.50% to 0.9888 franc. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Falls on Goldman Call. Crude oil fell on Friday after Goldman Sachs slashed its price forecast through next year. Goldman Sachs slashed its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude prices to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50, down from $62, citing oversupply and concerns over China's economy. U.S. crude futures settled down $1.29, or 2.8%, at $44.63 a barrel. Brent slid 75 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $48.14. (Reuters)

Gold Hits 1-Month Low. Gold fell to a one-month low on Friday, heading for a third successive weekly loss, as uncertainty over the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase in nearly a decade weighed on appetite for the metal. Spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,104.96 an ounce at 1837 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.5% at $1,103.30 an ounce. Silver was down 1.2% at $14.49 an ounce, while platinum was down 1.9% at $959.50 an ounce and palladium was flat at $587.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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