Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 18 Sep 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 18 Sep 2015, 09:36 AM

Malaysia

Najib Meets Captains of Industry to Discuss Economy. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak held a high-profile business dialogue with 30 prominent CEOs to discuss the current economic situation. Najib said the dialogue, among others, was to discuss immediate measures to restore confidence and stabilise the nation's economy. Among those present were AirAsia Group CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes, Telekom Malaysia Group CEO Tan Sri Zamzamzairani Mohd Isa, Public Bank Managing Director Tan Sri Tay Ah Lek and CIMB Group Holdings Bhd Group Chief Executive Tengku Datuk Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz and Malaysia Airports Holding Bhd Managing Director Datuk Badlisham Ghazali. (Bernama)

 

Asia

Singapore’s August Export Numbers Disappoint. Singapore's exports fell more in August than expected on a steep decline in sales to China and Europe, adding to the prospects of a further easing by the central bank next month to shield the economy from uneven global growth and to shore up inflation. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) slid 8.4% in August from a year earlier, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement on Thursday. That compared with a 3.0% contraction forecast in a market poll. Exports on the month fell 4.6% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared to a 0.5% rise predicted in the survey. (Reuters)

Japan's Export Growth Hit by Strains in China. Japan's exports slowed for a second straight month in August in a worrying sign that China's economic slowdown could deal a damaging blow to the Japan’s economy. Slowing exports could increase the chance of additional monetary easing from the Bank of Japan. The Finance Ministry said Japanese exports in August rose 3.1% on-year, smaller than the median estimate for 4.0% growth expected by economists in a poll, and less than July's 7.6% year-on-year rise. Exports destined for China fell 4.6% in August from a year ago. (Reuters)

Indonesia Holds Key Rate Ahead of Fed Meeting. Indonesia’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged for a seventh month, avoiding a cut that could further hurt a slumping currency as the U.S. considers raising borrowing costs. Governor Agus Martowardojo and his board held the reference rate at 7.5%, Bank Indonesia said in Jakarta on Thursday. The authority also maintained the rate it pays lenders on overnight deposits, commonly referred to as the Fasbi, at 5.5%, as forecast. Keeping the rate on hold is in line with its inflation targets, Bank Indonesia said in a brief statement. Inflation was 7.18% in August, the highest rate in Asia. (Bloomberg)

India Microlenders Upgrade to Banks. The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday said it had granted approval to eight Indian commercial microlenders to upgrade themselves into small finance banks — a new type of bank that it hopes will broaden access to financial services at the lower end of the market. The RBI said a total of 10 licences to set up small finance banks had been granted, including two applicants who were not microlenders. There were 70 applicants in total, with the successful 10 chosen on their ability to raise money for the initial capital requirements. (Financial Times)

 

USA

US FOMC Stays on Hold, but Sees Maybe Two Hikes in 2015. As expected, the US Federal Reserve decided to remain on hold in its September meeting as concerns about an increasingly weak global economy overshadowed evidence of a resilient US recovery. The vote to keep the federal funds rate on hold was 9-1, with only Richmond Fed Jeffrey Lacker dissenting. The Fed maintained its record low of 0-0.25% target range or ZIRP, ending weeks of feverish speculation over whether it would raise rates for the first time since before the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, on the future expectation of rate decision the average of the "dots" shows a year-end Fed Funds rate of about 0.40%, suggesting rate hikes are coming in both October and December meetings. Only 4 out of 20 members aren't projecting a rate hike this year. (See Economic Viewpoint: US FOMC Meeting)

U.S. Household Incomes Slip, Poverty Rate Holds in 2014. American household incomes lost ground last year as the poverty rate remained flat, a sign the U.S. economic expansion had yet to lead to gains for many Americans five years after the 2007-2009 recession. The data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Wednesday, which showed the inflation-adjusted median income slipping to $53,657 last year from $54,462 in 2013. The poverty rate held steady at 14.8%, the data showed. (Reuters)

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline to Lowest Level in Two Months. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. declined last week to the lowest level in two months, highlighting a resilient labor market. Applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 11,000 to 264,000 in the week ended Sept. 12, a Labor Department report showed Thursday. The median forecast of economists surveyed projected claims would hold at 275,000. Employers are holding back on dismissals as the economy forges ahead against the headwinds of slowing global markets. (Bloomberg)

Cheaper Oil Lowers U.S. Current Account Deficit in 2Q. Cheaper oil imports and greater U.S. exports lowered the deficit in the broadest measure of U.S. trade in the April-June quarter. The Commerce Department said Thursday that the current account deficit shrank to $109.7 billion, down from $118.3 billion in the first quarter. Falling oil prices helped reduce the value of oil imports, lowering the trade deficit to $130 billion from $134.3 billion in the first quarter. Exports of goods and services increased to $564.7 billion from $561.7 billion. (Bloomberg)

Housing Starts in U.S. Fall in Sign of Slow, Steady Recovery. New-home construction in the U.S. fell in August, indicating the real-estate recovery will take time to evolve. Residential starts declined 3% to a 1.13 million annualized rate from a 1.16 million pace the prior month that was slower than previously estimated, a Commerce Department report showed Thursday. Steady job gains and mortgage rates holding at historical lows are attracting more Americans to the real-estate market even as wage growth remains tepid. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

U.K. Retail Sales Increase. U.K. retail sales increased in August, as purchases of school uniforms bolstered clothing. Food sales declined. Volumes rose 0.2% from July, when they were unchanged, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Thursday. Excluding auto fuel, sales climbed 0.1%. Both numbers were in line with the median estimates in surveys of economists. Zero inflation and the strongest wage growth in more than six years are putting money in the pockets of consumers and helping them drive the British economy. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Slides After Fed Keeps Rates Steady. The dollar slumped on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady amid a slew of global challenges and lowered its long-term outlook for the American economy. In late trading, the euro rose to three-week highs of $1.1424 and was last at $1.1423, up 1.2%. Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.5% to 119.92. The dollar dropped to two-week lows versus the Swiss franc, and it last traded at 0.9598, down 1.2%. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Falls in Volatile Trade After Fed Leaves Rate Unchanged. Global oil futures fell Thursday, resuming their slide after a brief spike following the Federal Reserve's announcement that it would leave U.S. interest rates unchanged. Brent crude for November delivery fell $0.67 to settle at $49.08 a barrel. U.S. crude fell $0.25 to settle at $46.90 a barrel. Brent's premium to U.S crude slid, and settled at $1.88 a barrel. U.S. oil output has begun to ease after six years of sharp increases. (Reuters)

Gold Jumps to 2-Week High as Fed Holds U.S. Rates Steady. Gold rose to a two-week high on Thursday after the Federal Reserve said it held U.S. interest rates steady following a two-day policy meeting, sending the dollar index to a three-week low. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $1,127.80 an ounce, after rising to $1,130.35, the highest since Sept. 3. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.2% at $1,117 an ounce, before the Fed statement. Silver was up 1.8% at $15.16 following a 3.5% jump in the previous session. Platinum was up 0.7% at $974.74 an ounce and palladium was up 0.1% at $609.50. (Reuters)

 

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