Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 21 Sep 2015

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Publish date: Mon, 21 Sep 2015, 09:12 AM

Global

Fed Decision Likely Reflected Voice of Emerging Economies. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday that the U.S. decision to hold interest rates steady probably reflected lobbying by emerging economies at the recent G20 meeting that rapid U.S. rate hikes would damage their economies. Aso said low U.S. rates and capital flows into emerging economies had supported their growth since the global financial crisis, suggesting America should make future rate rises slowly, given fears that rapid hikes would spur capital flight. Aso's comments underline concerns among policymakers that hasty U.S. rate rises could deal a blow to emerging economies in Asia. (Reuters)

 

Asia

China August Home Prices Rise for Fourth Month. Home prices in China rose for a fourth consecutive month in August, offering hope that the ailing property sector is becoming less of a drag on the slowing economy. But analysts do not expect a full-blown turnaround any time soon, as a huge overhang of unsold homes discourages new construction and investment in all but the biggest cities. Average new home prices inched up 0.3% in August from the previous month, according to calculations based on data released by the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) on Friday, the same pace as in July. (Reuters)

BOJ Members Agreed Emerging Economies Will Pick up Longer Term – Minutes. Bank of Japan policymakers agreed that emerging economies had suffered from weak growth but were likely to improve from a longer-term perspective, minutes of the central bank's August policy meeting showed on Friday. Many in the nine-member board, however, said the BOJ must be vigilant to the risk of a decline in exports from a prolonged slowdown in China and other emerging economies. According to the minutes, members agreed that a recovery in overseas economies and the effect of the weak yen would help exports rise moderately, albeit with some fluctuations. (Reuters)

 

USA

Index of US Economy Shows Small 0.1% Gain in August. An index of future U.S. economic health edged up slightly in August after a flat reading in July. The outcome in both months signaled economic growth could be moderating. The Conference Board said Friday that its index of leading indicators rose 0.1% in August following no change in July and a 0.6% jump in June. Conference Board economist Ataman Ozyildirim said the index was signaling that growth will be moderate through the rest of the year "with little reason to expect growth to pick up substantially." (AP)

Fed's China Comments Reinforce Unease About Growth Prospects. The Federal Reserve chief's rare comments on China reinforced unease its weakening economy might be headed for a deeper slump. On Thursday, U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen mentioned China along with inflation after Fed governors put off a long-expected interest rate hike. Such concern is unusual for the Fed, which usually limits its focus to the U.S. economy. On Thursday, Yellen referred to "concerns about the deftness" of Chinese policy. Beijing still has room to stimulate growth by cutting interest rates or stepping up government spending, according to analysts. (AP)

US Household Wealth Reaches New High of $85.7 Trillion. Rising home values drove a modest increase in Americans' household wealth to a new high of $85.7 trillion in the April-June quarter. The Federal Reserve said Friday that Americans' stock portfolios climbed $61 billion in value, while housing wealth increased $499 billion. Total household wealth is up from $85 trillion in the first quarter. Rising household wealth can help boost growth by making consumers feel wealthier and more likely to spend. Americans also stepped up borrowing, a sign of confidence in the economy. (AP)

Fed's Williams Still Sees 2015 Rate Hike After 'Close Call'. An interest rate hike will likely be appropriate this year given the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision last week to stand pat was a "close call," a top Fed policymaker said on Saturday. John Williams, a centrist and president of the San Francisco Fed, said the arguments for and against beginning to tighten U.S. monetary policy are about balanced now that the economy is on solid footing, giving him confidence in continued economic and labor market growth. He viewed the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. (Reuters)

 

Europe

UK Productivity Lags Behind Rest of G7. The UK was much less productive than the rest of the G7 in 2014, lagging by the most since 1991, official figures have shown. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output per hour was 20 percentage points below the G7 average. Productivity is seen as key to helping increase living standards in the UK by many experts. The Chancellor, George Osborne, pledged in July to take steps to encourage more long-term investment in infrastructure and by businesses to boost productivity. (BBC)

Moody's Downgrades Credit Rating of France. Moody's Investors Service is downgrading the credit rating of France, saying the French economy will grow slowly for the rest of this decade while the country's debt remains high. The firm lowered its rating to "Aa2" from "Aa1." Moody's said Friday the outlook for economic growth in France is weak, and it does not expect that to change soon. Overall Moody's says France's creditworthiness is "extremely high" because of its large, wealthy, well-diversified economy, high per-capita income, good demographic trends, strong investor base and low financing costs. The outlook was raised to "stable" from "negative." (AP)

 

Currencies

Dollar Recovers from Three-Week Low in Technical Rally. The dollar rebounded from a three-week low on Friday, a day after the Federal Reserve kept U.S. interest rates on hold, in a late technical rally after a steep sell-off the previous session. In late trading, the dollar index was up 0.7% at 95.191, after dropping to a three-week low of 94.063. The euro was down 1.2% against the dollar at $1.1294 after hitting a three-week high of $1.1459. Against the yen, the dollar was flat at 119.96 yen. (Reuters)

Indonesia Sees Pressure on Rupiah Continuing as U.S. Delays Rate Hike. Indonesia's rupiah will remain under pressures as the U.S. Federal Reserve delays a plan to raise interest rates, the country's chief economics minister said on Friday. The rupiah weakened 0.07% to 14,465 per dollar from Thursday's closing. It touched a fresh 17-year low of 14,470 earlier on Friday. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday in a nod to concerns about a weak world economy although it left open the possibility of a modest policy tightening later this year. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

U.S. Crude Tumbles 5%; Wall Street Selloff Offsets Rig Data. Oil prices tumbled on Friday, with U.S. crude falling 5%, after a selloff in Wall Street equities offset the positive impact of a third weekly decline in the U.S. oil rig count. A rise in the dollar, fears that OPEC oil production will not slow and reduced political tensions in the Middle East from U.S-Russia talks on Syria also weighed on oil. U.S. crude settled down $2.22, or 4.8%, at $44.68 a barrel. Brent fell $1.61, or 3.3%, at $47.47. (Reuters)

Gold at Near 3-Week High as Fed Rate Decision Weighs on Equities. Gold rose to a near three-week high on Friday as the Federal Reserve's decision to leave U.S. interest rates unchanged rattled investors' outlook on the global economy and weighed on equity markets in developed economies. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,137.34 an ounce at 1849 GMT, after earlier touching its highest level since Sept. 2, at $1,141.50. Silver was flat at $15.12 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.5% to $975.75 and palladium was down 0.2% at $606.50. (Reuters)

 

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