Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 29 Sep 2015

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Publish date: Tue, 29 Sep 2015, 10:31 AM

Malaysia

Zeti: No Pressure To Raise Interest Rate. Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said that the central bank is not facing any pressure to increase its interest rate, despite the continued weakening of the ringgit. “It (the current interest rate) is supporting economic activities and we are seeing steady growth of credit, and it has not hampered borrowing from the financial system,” she said. “Of course, we want our currency to stabilise, but this is not a static environment, but a dynamic one. Therefore, where other currencies are also adjusting, we cannot keep ours at one specific level, because it will be misaligned, given the highly dynamic environment.” (The Edge Financial Daily)

Zeti: Tell the World Our Story. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz has urged authorities to address the negative perception surrounding Malaysia, after a rating's agency said the country deserved junk status. Zeti said Malaysia should adopt the same strategy it used when facing the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, and explain to investors the country's real situation. "It's not up to the rating agencies. It's up to us to tell our story to the market, just like we did before. (The Malaysian Insider)

 

Asia

Thai August Exports Fall for Eighth Month. Thailand's exports in August contracted for an eighth straight month, more evidence the trade-reliant economy remains mired in the doldrums after more than a year of military rule. Exports in August slipped 6.69% from a year earlier, while imports declined 4.77%, the Commerce Ministry said on Monday. Both figures were about twice as bad as forecast. The central bank last week forecast that exports would shrink 5% this year, the biggest fall since 2009. The ministry blamed a slow global economy plus low oil and commodity prices as the main factor for August's poor exports. (Reuters)

Singapore Names Heng Swee Keat as New Finance Minister. Singapore's new finance minister will be Heng Swee Keat, replacing Tharman Shanmugaratnam who will remain deputy prime minister in a new cabinet, the prime minister announced on Monday. Heng is currently education minister and was a former managing director of Singapore's central bank. Shanmugaratnam, an international financial expert who has worked for the International Monetary Fund, will also be the coordinating minister for economic and social policies. (Reuters)

China Industrial Profits Fall Most Since 2011 as Economy Slumps. Chinese industrial companies’ profits declined the most in at least four years, the latest sign that the nation’s growth drivers are faltering. Industrial profits tumbled 8.8% in August from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Profits in coal mining plunged 64.9%, while oil and gas profits tumbled 67.3%, according to the report. The drop was attributed to falling product prices, lower investment returns and foreign exchange losses contributed, according to an analysis on the agency’s website. (Bloomberg)

Profits at China's State Firms Fall 6.6% YoY in Jan-Aug. Profits at China's state-owned firms fell 6.6% in the first eight months of 2015 from a year earlier, the finance ministry said on Monday, quickening from a 2.3% drop in the January-July period. Profits of state-owned companies, excluding financial firms, totaled 1.6 trillion yuan ($251.19 billion) in the January-August period, the ministry said. Revenues of state firms totaled 29.2 trillion yuan in the first eight months, down 5.9% from a year ago, it said. Companies in steel, coal and non-ferrous metal sectors remained in the red, it added. (Reuters)

 

USA

Fed's Williams Wants 2015 Rate Hike. A top U.S. central banker on Monday renewed his call for an interest-rate hike "sometime later this year," citing near-full employment and rapidly rising house prices that may be a sign of excessive economic optimism. John Williams, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, said in remarks the he is starting to see signs of imbalances emerge in the form of high asset prices, especially in real estate, and that trips the alert system. Though he supported the decision to wait, Williams signaled on Monday that he is getting nervous about waiting much longer. (Reuters)

U.S. Consumer Spending Rises; Core Inflation Firms Slightly. U.S. consumer spending grew briskly in August and a key measure of inflation firmed a bit, signs of strength in America's domestic economy that could lead the Federal Reserve to tighten interest rates. The Commerce Department said on Monday consumer spending increased 0.4% after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in July. Economists polled had forecast consumer spending rising 0.3% last month. Inflation rose just 0.3% in August from the same month a year earlier. However, in July, core prices rose 1.2% YoY. (Reuters)

U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline in August. Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes decreased in August, indicating the robust housing market could be losing some steam. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, decreased 1.4% to 109.4. The index rose 6.1% from the same month a year ago, marking 12 straight months of YoY gains. Economists had forecast pending home sales rising 0.4% last month. (Reuters)

U.S. Economy on Track to Grow 1.8% in 3Q - Atlanta Fed. The U.S. economy is on track to grow 1.8% in the third quarter after a mildly stronger-than-expected 0.4% increase in personal spending in August, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Monday. This was a faster rate from the regional Fed bank's prior estimate of 1.4% last Thursday. The August increase in real personal consumption expenditures raised the quarter's pace to 3.5% from its prior estimate of 3.2%, the regional Fed said. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Dollar Drops as Stocks Slump Boosts Yen. The dollar declined on Monday as the yen rallied amid slumping global stock prices pulled down by worrisome corporate profits in China and anxiety over potentially market-rattling economic data due this week from China, Europe and the United States. The dollar was down 0.7% at 119.81 yen. The dollar index was last off 0.25% after giving up early gains on an unexpected decline in contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes in August. The dollar was off 0.40% against the franc. The euro was last up 0.40% against the dollar at $1.1194. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil down Nearly 3% on Wall Street, China. Oil prices fell nearly 3% on Monday, pressured by tumbling equities on Wall Street and weak Chinese economic data, although an estimated drawdown in crude stocks at the key U.S. storage hub appeared to limit losses, traders said. Brent settled down $1.26, or 2.6%, at $47.34 a barrel. U.S. crude settled down $1.27, or 2.8%, at $44.43. (Reuters)

Gold Falls on U.S. Rate Outlook, Platinum at 6.5-Year Low. Gold had its worst session in 2.5 weeks on Monday, extending Friday's losses ahead of a key U.S. jobs report later in the week that could boost bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. Spot gold fell 1.5% to a session low of $1,127.70 an ounce, and was trading down 1.1% at $1,132.53 by 1815 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 1.2% at $1,131.70 per ounce. Platinum fell more than 3%, touching a 6.5-year low of $914.25 an ounce and was trading down 3% at $915.74 an ounce on Monday afternoon. Palladium fell 2.3% to $645.75 an ounce. Silver fell 3.5% to $14.55 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

 

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