Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 9 Oct 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 09 Oct 2015, 09:59 AM

Global

Most Major Economies Weakening, Eurozone Stable – OECD. Growth seems to be easing off in most of the world's major economies, including the United States and more notably in China, the Paris-based OECD said on Thursday. The OECD said its monthly leading indicator showed moderating growth generally. However, the euro zone was stable, with growth firming up in euro zone countries France and Italy, and also in India. Taking an index reading of 100 as the long-term average, China slipped further, to 97.2 from 97.6 in its latest update, the OECD said. The U.S. economy dropped to 99.2 from 99.5, Japan to 99.8 from 99.9 and the UK to 99.5 from 99.7. The euro zone as a whole remained stable at 100.7. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

Ministry to Meet Khazanah, Petronas on TPPA. International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said the ministry will be holding discussions with Khazanah Nasional Bhd and Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), among others, on state-owned enterprise (SOE) issues under the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). “Khazanah plays a vital role in the country’s transformation, Petronas has its petroleum development act, these are what we have to take care of. So what we have discussed (for the TPPA) must be in line with social and economic models in Malaysia,” he noted. Mustapa said the TPPA calls for SOE boards’ approval on certain matters, which were not disclosed, for it to go through. (The Sun Daily)

Government to Ensure TPPA Rules Fair to SMEs. The government would ensure that the negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) would come out with rules that are fair to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). "I understand the SMEs are worried that they will lose out when multinationals from developed countries participate or invest in our country with big money when the agreement is implemented,” said minister in the Prime Minister Department, Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong. "But they should not worry as we will make sure their (SMEs) concerns are taken on board and more information on the agreement's advantages will be provided to them." (Bernama)

1MDB Cleared of Bank Negara Probe. The Attorney General’s Chambers (AGC) has cleared 1MDB of any wrongdoing in relation to an investigation initiated by Bank Negara into its investments overseas. However, the investigations into 1MDB by the police and the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) are still ongoing and the AGC is continuing with its efforts to assist these two agencies. The AGC said in a statement that the task force set up to investigate 1MDB had never been dissolved or disbanded and it had never made any statement to that effect. For Bank Negara, it had completed its investigations and submitted the findings with its recommendations to the AGC in August. (The Star)

 

Asia

Japan Logs Current Account Surplus for 14th Straight Month in August. Japan posted a current account surplus for the 14th straight month in August as the trade deficit narrowed and as a weak yen helped boost income from overseas investments, Ministry of Finance data showed on Thursday. The current account surplus stood at 1.65 trillion yen ($13.8 billion), up sharply from 249.4 billion yen in August last year. The median forecast of economists was for 1.2211 trillion yen. The boom in foreign visitors to Japan helped raise the travel account to a record surplus for the month of August, the MOF also said. (Reuters)

Japan Machinery Orders Fall in August, Undermine BOJ Optimism. Japan's machinery orders unexpectedly fell in August in a worrying indication that capital expenditure is weaker than policymakers expected, which could increase the chances of new fiscal and monetary stimulus. Core machinery orders, fell 5.7% in August versus the median estimate for a 3.2% increase, and followed a 3.6% decline in the previous month. The decline in machinery orders suggests capital expenditure is not as strong as indicated in last week's Bank of Japan's tankan survey and could undermine Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's argument that consumer prices remain on track to accelerate. (Reuters)

China Subscribes to Data Standard to Boost Economic Statistics. China on Wednesday subscribed to the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), marking a major step forward for official statistics in the country, the IMF said ahead of its annual meetings here. China's adoption of the IMF standard follows many investors questioning the reliability of China's data as the country's economic growth has slowed. China's central bank said in a separate statement that adopting SDDS would help uncover the real situation in the economy and provide "a timely and accurate basis" for policymaking. At the same time, it will help "enhance the level of China’s participation in global economic cooperation". (Reuters)

China's Sovereign Rating Can Withstand Slower Growth: Moody's. China's sovereign rating can withstand slower growth and greater volatility, Moody's senior research analyst Rahul Ghosh on Thursday. Moody's rates China Aa3 with a stable outlook. Ghosh said that Chinese corporate credits in the Moody's ratings universe, which covers about 200 companies and banks, were likely to be able to absorb a further 5-10% depreciation of the yuan "pretty well". Oil and gas producers have a natural currency hedge as their revenues are denominated in dollars, Ghosh said. Moody's has a stable outlook on China's banking sector. (Reuters)

Confidence Among Thai Consumers Continued to Fall in September. Confidence among consumers in Thailand continued to fall in September, the ninth consecutive month of a downtrend. The survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) showed the Consumer Confidence Index fell 72.1 points last month, from 72.3 in August. An index of lower than 100 points reflects poor sentiment. However, the survey showed consumers were more optimistic going forward, and confident of the country's growth. This followed the short term stimulus package of 136 billion baht by the government and targeted to help the low-income group. (Bernama)

 

USA

Global Worries Kept Fed from Hiking Rates in September. Federal Reserve officials were almost ready to raise interest rates in September but held off because of China's economic slowdown and its potential to derail U.S. growth and inflation. Minutes of the September 16-17 discussions released Thursday showed the central bank believed the time for the first Fed rate increase in nine years "might be near." However, policymakers decided to wait for evidence that the economy had not weakened and that inflation would gradually move back toward the Fed's 2% annual target. Some members also expressed concerns that a premature rate hike could harm the central bank's credibility. (AP)

Drop in Applications for US Unemployment Benefits Last Week. Fewer Americans sought unemployment benefits last week, as employers hold onto workers despite a recent slowdown in hiring because of global pressures weighing on the U.S. economy. The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications for jobless aid fell 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000. The four-week average has fallen 8.2% over the past year to 267,500. Jobless claims averaging less than 300,000 a week have traditionally corresponded with net monthly job gains of roughly 200,000. (AP)

 

Europe

UK Interest Rates Held at 0.5% after 8-1 Bank Vote. The Bank of England has held UK interest rates at the record low of 0.5%. The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by 8 to 1 to keep rates unchanged. UK interest rates have now remained unchanged for more than six years. The central bank said cost pressures in the UK's labour market were rising too slowly for inflation to return to the Bank's 2% target, and that inflation would stay below 1% until spring 2016. Many economists still think a UK rate rise will happen early next year. (BBC)

German Exports Slump Most Since 2009 Recession. German exports slumped the most since the height of the 2009 recession in a sign that Europe’s largest economy is vulnerable to risks from weakening global trade. Foreign sales declined 5.2% in August from the previous month, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said on Thursday. That’s the steepest since January 2009. Economists predicted a drop of 0.9%. Imports fell 3.1%. The trade surplus shrank to 15.3 billion euros ($17.2 billion) from 25 billion euros in July, according to the report. (Bloomberg)

Eurozone Aims to Cap Greek Debt Servicing at 15% of GDP. Eurozone governments, Greece's biggest creditors, agree that debt relief for Athens should be accomplished by capping its debt servicing costs at 15% of gross domestic annually, the chairman of the Eurozone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said on Thursday. But discussions on whether the relief should be granted up front, over time as some conditions are met, or as a mix of the two, would only start later this year, he said. Officials have said that the IMF believed that while capping annual debt servicing costs at 15% of GDP was a standard that worked for most economies. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Dollar Falls, Retraces Losses as Fed Minutes Seen Dovish. The dollar touched its lowest level against the euro in over two weeks but quickly pared its losses after minutes released on Thursday from the Federal Reserve's September meeting reinforced the view that the central bank would not hike U.S. rates until next year. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar hit 0.96230 franc, its lowest level in nearly three weeks. The dollar index was last down 0.21% at 95.294, or roughly unchanged from its level prior to the release of the minutes. The euro was last up 0.33% against the dollar at $1.12750 and was down 0.71% against the franc at 0.96660 franc. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Surges to Settle at Three-Month High on Bullish Outlook. Oil prices climbed to their highest in three months on Thursday after a closely watched oil forecaster, PIRA Energy Group, predicted prices would climb to $75 over the next two years, adding to early gains notched after a rally in Chinese stocks worries about Syria. Brent closed up $1.72 at $53.05 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures closed up $1.62 at $49.43 a barrel. Brent is on track to rise more than 10% this week, close to its largest weekly increase since early 2009, after oil industry executives warned that this year's fall below $50 would force higher-cost producers to reduce output. (Reuters)

Gold Turns Lower After Knee-Jerk Rally on Fed Minutes. Gold turned lower on Thursday in a dramatic turnaround after Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed policymakers at the U.S. central bank were unsettled by signs of a global economic slowdown but that their outlook was not "materially altered". Spot gold eased 0.4% to $1,139.86 an ounce at 1916 GMT, having rallied 0.5% to $1,151.20 after the September minutes were released. U.S. gold futures for December delivery was down 0.4% at $1,144.30 an ounce. Silver fell as much as 4.4% at $15.36 an ounce. Platinum was up 0.5% at $945.245 an ounce and palladium fell 0.1% to $696.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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