Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 30 Oct 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 30 Oct 2015, 10:30 AM

Malaysia

Malaysia Central Bank Accepts Dollar Deposits as Ringgit Sinks. Malaysia’s central bank started taking in interbank dollar deposits for the first time in September to try and slow a slide in Ringgit. Bank Negara Malaysia is accepting deposits in small amounts. The move will help build up the country’s currency reserves. The monetary authority said in response to questions that it’s encouraging financial institutions, including branches of overseas banks, to keep foreign-currency earnings and deposits of Malaysian-based companies in the domestic market. The central bank said its move is to ensure there’s sufficient dollar liquidity in the “financial system to meet the needs of businesses and households.” (Bloomberg)

Bank Negara Enhances Consumer Protection in Disputes Involving Banks and Insurers. Bank Negara expects to implement the financial ombudsman scheme (FOS), which aims to resolve disputes between consumers and financial services providers (FSPs), in the first quarter of next year. The central bank said in a statement that the Financial Services (Financial Ombudsman Scheme) Regulations 2015 and Islamic Financial Services (Financial Ombudsman Scheme) Regulations 2015, which provide for approval, oversight and obligations of a FOS, came into force on September 14. They pave the way to establish a FOS as part of the regulator’s efforts to enhance financial dispute resolution arrangements for consumers and to strengthen consumer protection. (The Star)

 

Asia

Li Floats New China Five-Year Growth Minimum of Around 6.5%. Premier Li Keqiang highlighted a minimum growth estimate for China in the coming five years that could indicate the leadership’s readiness to accept the weakest period of expansion since the economy was opened up three decades ago. The nation needs annual growth of at least 6.53% in the next five years to meet the government’s goal of establishing a “moderately prosperous society,” Li said. China’s central bank shouldn’t adopt quantitative easing to flood the economy with too much money, Li said. Growth cannot return to the days in excess of 10%, though it can stay in a reasonable range, Li said. (Bloomberg)

China to Allow 2 Kids for All Couples amid Economic Slowdown. China's ruling Communist Party said Thursday it has decided to allow two children for all couples, amid growing concerns that a rapidly aging population could constrain its economic growth. It comes after China decided to partially ease its family planning restrictions two years ago, allowing couples at that time to have a second baby if one of the parents is an only child. The fifth plenary session of the 18th Central Committee of the party endorsed a new five-year economic plan at a time when the world's second-largest economy is trying to adjust itself to a "new normal" of slower growth. (Nikkei)

Singapore 3Q Unemployment Rate Remains Steady at 2.0%. Singapore's overall unemployment rate was 2.0% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous three months, government data released Thursday showed. The unemployment rate for residents rose to 3.0% from 2.8% the previous quarter, while the rate for Singapore citizens rose to 3.1% from 2.9% amid softer economic conditions, according to a statement from the Ministry of Manpower. The city-state added 16,400 jobs between July and September, compared with 9,700 the previous quarter. However, the number of jobs added was lower than the 33,400 added in the third quarter last year, the data showed. (Dow Jones)

Japan’s Consumer Prices Fall 0.1% Before BOJ Policy Decision. The Bank of Japan’s main inflation gauge dropped for a second consecutive month as the effects of low oil prices continue to take a toll, keeping Governor Haruhiko Kuroda distant from his 2% inflation target. Consumer prices excluding fresh food declined 0.1% in September from a year earlier, after falling in August for the first time since April 2013, according to the statistics bureau. The median estimate of economists surveyed was for prices to decline 0.2%. Stripping out food and energy, prices rose 0.9%. (Bloomberg)

South Korea September Factory Output Growth at Three-Month High. South Korea's industrial output rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September from the previous month, official data showed on Friday, gaining for a second month and far outperforming market expectations. It was the fastest growth since a 2.4% gain in June and far higher than the median 0.4% increase forecast in a survey of 14 analysts. August's industrial output growth, however, was revised down to a rise of 0.2% from the provisional 0.4% gain reported earlier. The data showed growth was mainly propped up by semiconductor and car production, which jumped 17.2% and 5.0% in September on monthly terms, respectively. (Reuters)

S&P: Asia Pacific Non-sovereign Issuers Exposed to China-related Risks. China's slowdown has partly spiked risks of lower commodity prices, currency volatility and reduced business confidence. This is according to Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P) in a report released today. The report said S&P feels that apart from those in China, nonsovereign issuers in Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan are likely to feel the greatest impact of China's slowdown, commodity price falls, currency volatility, and dampened business confidence. On the other hand, issuers in Japan and in commodity-exporting countries Australia, Indonesia, and New Zealand, could see a medium impact. Issuers in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are likely to feel less impact than the previous two groups. (Bernama)

 

Americas

US Economy Slowed to 1.5% Growth Rate in Third Quarter. The U.S. economy slowed sharply in the summer, reflecting a cutback in businesses' stockpiling of goods, which offset solid consumer spending. The Commerce Department said Thursday that the economy, as measured by the GDP, grew at a tepid annual rate of 1.5% in the July-September quarter, far below the 3.9% of the previous quarter. The biggest reason was a push by businesses to shrink unwanted stockpiles, which slashed 1.4 percentage points from quarterly growth but is expected to be only temporary. Consumer spending remained solid over the summer: It rose at a 3.2% annual rate, down only slightly from the previous quarter. (AP)

US Jobless Aid Applications Fell to 42-Year Low Last Month. The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment aid barely rose last week and the average level of applications in the past month fell to a 42-year low. The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications rose just 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000, a very low level historically that suggests employers are cutting few jobs. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped 4,000 to 259,250. That is the fewest since December 1973. The figures indicate that businesses remain confident enough in the economy to hold onto their workers. Growth slowed sharply in the July-September quarter but that has not spurred widespread layoffs. (AP)

 

Europe

Eurozone Sentiment Raises in October, Inflation Expectations Drop. Eurozone economic sentiment improved against expectations in October, European Commission data showed on Thursday, mainly driven by stronger confidence in the retail and construction sectors, while the consumer inflation forecast dipped. The overall economic sentiment rose to 105.9 this month from 105.6 in September, confirming the upward trend started in July and defying market expectations of a minor decline. The Commission's business climate indicator rose to 0.44 in October from a revised 0.36 in September. Inflation expectations among consumers 12 months ahead dropped to 0.7 in October from 3.2 in September. (Reuters)

German Unemployment Declines as Private Spending Drives Economy. German unemployment fell in October in a sign that companies in Europe’s largest economy are weathering a slowdown in emerging markets. Joblessness declined a seasonally adjusted 5,000 to 2.788 million, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said on Thursday. Economists in a survey predicted a drop of 4,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4%, the lowest level since German reunification. A resilient labor market fueling consumption together with rising disposable incomes and low inflation bodes well for German economic growth. (Bloomberg)

U.K. House Prices Rise Most in Six Months - Nationwide. U.K. house-price growth accelerated to a six-month high, according to Nationwide Building Society, as a separate report showed mortgage lending rising by the most since 2008. The average price of a home increased 0.6% to 196,807 pounds ($300,000) in October following a 0.5% gain the previous month, the lender said on Thursday. The annual rate of growth quickened to 3.9% from 3.8%. While Bank of England data showed mortgage approvals declined unexpectedly in September, there was evidence of continued buoyancy in the housing market, with lending rising 3.6 billion pounds that month. (Bloomberg)

German Inflation Slightly Stronger Than Expected in October. German inflation was slightly stronger than expected in October, but remained sharply below the European Central Bank's target. Consumer prices measured according to common European standards were unchanged from September, but up 0.2% from October last year, the Federal Statistical Office said Thursday. Economists polled had forecast a monthly decline in the HICP of 0.1% and an annual increase of 0.1%. German inflation measured according to national standards was also slightly stronger than expected in October. Consumer prices were unchanged from September and up 0.3% from the year-earlier. (Dow Jones)

 

Currencies

Euro Gains, Dollar Falls as Market Pulls Back from Fed Reaction. Profit-taking drove the dollar down on Thursday as markets pulled back one day after a hawkish statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve that pushed the greenback up sharply against other major currencies. The Fed's hint that it was likely to raise interest rates in December remained supportive of the dollar's long-term future. The dollar index was down 0.5% at 97.276. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0974, after falling on Wednesday to its lowest since August. The pound picked up 0.38% to $1.5317 while the dollar was flat against the Japanese yen at 121.11. (Reuters)

Indonesia Central Bank to Intervene in Forward Market through Auction. Indonesia's central bank said on Thursday it will intervene in the forward currency market through auctions starting this week to sell or buy rupiah, introducing a new tool to stabilise a rupiah currency that hit 17-year lows last month. Bank Indonesia (BI) said banks or intermediary institutions may participate in the auction with minimum transaction of US$1 million (RM4.3 million). The new regulation also lowered to one week from one-month the minimum holding period for BI-issued rupiah denominated certificates, that is debt paper of up to 12 months. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Prices Mixed After Big Rally, Range-Bound Trading Seen. U.S. crude rose slightly while Brent dipped on Thursday, as traders tried to discern the oil market's direction a day after prices rallied the most in two months even as supplies kept growing. U.S. crude gained almost 2% early in the session, before disappointing U.S. economic data curbed investors' enthusiasm after Wednesday's 6% rally. U.S. crude settled up $0.12, or 0.3%, at $46.06 a barrel, after trading between $45.16 and $46.79. It had rallied nearly $3 the previous session. Brent finished down $0.20, or 0.5%, at $48.80, trading between $48.17 and $49.38. (Reuters)

Gold Falls to Three-Week Low on Rate Hike Talk. Gold fell for a second day on Thursday, reaching its lowest level in three weeks, after the Federal Reserve hinted at a possible U.S. interest rate rise in December. Spot gold fell as much as 0.9% to its lowest since October 9 at $1,145.43 an ounce. It was down 0.8% at $1,146.10 at 1858 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 2.4% at $1,147.30 an ounce. Industrial metals also fell on Thursday, with platinum down 0.9% at $989 an ounce and palladium falling 1.5% to $667.50. Silver dropped 2.1% to $15.58. (Reuters)

Russia Oil Production Poised for Record as Industry Defies Slump. Russian oil output is poised to break a post-Soviet record for the fourth time this year. Production of crude and a light oil called condensate is on track to reach 10.77 million barrels a day in October, setting a record for the second month running, according to estimates based on Energy Ministry data. Oil-extraction and export tax rates shrink in Russia at lower prices, giving companies a buffer against the slump, while the weaker ruble has reduced costs. Output from January to October averaged about 10.7 million barrels a day, a 1.3% increase over the same period in 2014, the data show. (Bloomberg)

 

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