Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 4 Nov 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 04 Nov 2015, 09:28 AM

Malaysia

TPP Deal to be Made Public in Two Weeks' Time. The contents of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement will be made public in two weeks' time, Second International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan said. He said as the government had concluded the TPP with the parties involved, the next step is to present the details to the people. It will then be brought before a special parliamentary session in January next year for debate and a vote by the 222 lawmakers, he told reporters after visiting the Melaka branch of the International Trade and Industry Ministry here today. (Bernama)

Malaysia Seen Holding Policy Rate Steady as Risks to Growth Remain. Malaysia's central bank is expected to keep its overnight policy rate steady at 3.25% on Thursday as the economy and currency remain under pressure from weak commodity prices and political uncertainties, a poll showed. All 15 economists surveyed forecast that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) would leave the rate unchanged in its last policy meeting of the year. (Reuters)

BNM Urges Banks To Reduce Cost of Handling Cash, Cheques. The banking industry should undertake effective measures to reduce the cost of handling cash and cheques used for credit card and loan repayments which amounted to about RM2.4 billion annually. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) Deputy Governor, Datuk Muhammad Ibrahim, said this was a sheer wastage when a cheaper alternative was readily available. (Bernama)

Malaysian Consumer Confidence at 10-Year Low. The Malaysian consumer confidence index for 3Q15 slipped to a 10-year low of 78 percentage points, compared to 89 ppt in the previous quarter, according to the latest Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism. Nielsen Malaysia country manager Richard Hall said that this was driven by increased consumer concern over the economic outlook, the declining value of the ringgit and the country’s political stability. (The Star)

 

Asia

RBA Opens Door to Rate Cuts Even as Growth Prospects Improve. Australia’s central bank opened the door to resuming interest-rate cuts in response to low inflation, while leaving the benchmark unchanged Tuesday in an economy it says is showing stronger prospects. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens kept the cash rate at a record-low 2%, saying “the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.” While housing construction has surged in the low-rate environment, other firms have proved more reluctant to spend, betting they can meet demand from highly indebted households via existing capacity. (Bloomberg)

Korean Inflation Runs at the Fastest Pace in Almost a Year. South Korean inflation unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest pace in almost a year as domestic consumption and industrial production improved. The price gains help back the government’s assessment that the economy is in a "turn-around" from the effects of an outbreak of a respiratory illness earlier this year that scared away shoppers and foreign tourists. The CPI rose 0.9% in October from a year earlier, Statistics Korea said Tuesday. That beat the median estimate of 0.7% in a survey. (Bloomberg)

South Korea Set to Become First Sovereign Issuer of Panda Bonds. South Korea is poised to become the first sovereign to sell yuan-denominated debt in China, setting a benchmark for companies seeking to expand in the nation’s biggest export market. The need for yuan funding is rising as Korean corporations boost investment in China, Song In Chang, the Finance Ministry’s director general, said in Seoul on Tuesday. The Panda bonds will also allow South Korea to diversify its foreign-currency issuance, he said. China wants to increase the yuan’s global use and win its inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of reserve currencies. (Bloomberg)

Oil Slump Weighs on Saudi, U.A.E Businesses as PMI Drops. The slump in oil prices is sapping growth momentum of private businesses in the two biggest Arab economies, according to a key indicator released on Tuesday. The Emirates NBD PMI for Saudi Arabia dropped for a second month in a row to 55.7 in October, the lowest level since the survey began in 2009, driven by weaker expansion in new business. The same measure for the United Arab Emirates fell to 54 from 56 in September, the lowest since April 2013, the Dubai-based bank said. The Saudi government is already searching for budget savings, is contemplating project delays and has sold bonds for the first time since 2007. (Bloomberg)

China's Xi Says Annual Growth of About 7% Possible over Next Five Years. China can maintain annual economic growth of around 7.0% over the next five years but there are uncertainties, including weak global trade and high domestic debt, Xinhua news agency quoted President Xi Jinping as saying on Tuesday. Annual average growth would be no less than 6.5% in the next five years to realize the country's goal of doubling 2010 GDP and per capita income by 2020, Xinhua earlier quoted Xi as saying. Global trade was expected to remain sluggish and growth in China's consumption and investment could slow, and there may be risks from high debt levels, Xi said. (Reuters)

Hong Kong Retail Sales Fall for Seventh Straight Month in September. Hong Kong retail sales fell for a seventh straight month in September as a drop in Chinese tourists and weak consumer sentiment hurt retailers. Retail sales dropped 6.4% from a year earlier, the biggest percentage decline since January this year, to HK$35.2 billion ($4.54 billion). "The subdued performance of retail sales reflected the weakening of inbound tourism and, to some extent, the spillover of heightened stock market volatility during the summer on consumer sentiment," the government said. (Reuters)

Thailand Offers More Tax Benefits to Speed Up Investment Projects. Thailand approved on Tuesday more tax incentives to accelerate private investment this year and next, the finance minister said, as the military government tries to get a sluggish economy on track. The new incentives will cover general investment projects and those approved by the Board of Investment (BOI), Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong told reporters. "The measure, we believe, will spur more investments and faster," he said. The benefits include a tax exemption for projects approved by the BOI from January 2014 to June 2016. (Reuters)

 

Americas

U.S. Automakers Post Big October Sales Gains; Record Year in Sight. The U.S. is speeding toward what could be a record year for auto sales. Sales of new cars and trucks rose by double-digit percentages at most major automakers in October, and companies are raising their expectations for the rest of the year. U.S. sales rose 14.0% to nearly 1.5 million, according to Autodata Corp. It was the best October since 2001, according to the LMC Automotive forecasting firm. The pace likely won't slow as holiday promotions begin in November. Sales have been greased by cheap financing, low gas prices and an improving economy. (AP)

U.S. Factory Orders Fell Again in September. Orders to U.S. factories fell in September for a second straight month, with a key category that tracks business spending plans also losing ground. Factory orders dropped 1.0% in September following a 2.1% decline in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. A category that serves as a proxy for business investment spending slipped 0.1%. U.S. manufacturers have been squeezed this year as a strong dollar makes American products less competitive overseas. Demand for all durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, fell 1.2%. (AP)

Brazil's October Trade Surplus Tops Estimates at $1.996 Billion. Brazil posted a trade surplus of $1.996 billion in October, trade ministry data showed on Tuesday, its eighth straight positive monthly result as imports plunge due to a deepening recession in Latin America's top economy. The latest surplus was above market estimates for a surplus of $1.16 billion. So far this year Brazil has an accumulated trade surplus of $12.244 billion, on track to revert the deficit it recorded last year. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Draghi Says ECB to Review Policy in December, Willing and Able to Act. The European Central Bank's (ECB) policymakers will review the degree of monetary stimulus they have deployed when they meet in December and remain willing and able to act if needed, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday. Consumer prices in the 19-country euro zone slipped by 0.1% in September, far from the bank's aim of just below 2%. Draghi said domestic demand remained resilient in the Eurozone, but that concerns over growth prospects in emerging markets were creating "downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation". (Reuters)

Euro-Area Bonds Hold Drop as Traders Await Clarity on ECB Policy. Euro-area government bonds were little changed as traders waited for clarity from economic data or policy makers on whether the European Central Bank will expand stimulus in December. Benchmark German 10-year bunds yielded 0.56% as of 10:31 a.m. London time. Spanish 10-year bond yields dropped two basis points to 1.73% and the yield on similar-maturity French bonds was little changed at 0.92%. (Bloomberg)

UK Construction Growth Slows in October - PMI. Growth in Britain's construction sector slowed in October after hitting its fastest pace in six months in September but the increase in new work was the quickest in a year, a survey showed on Tuesday. The CIPS/Markit construction PMI slipped back to 58.8 in October, in line with a poll of economists, from 59.9 in September. Tuesday's construction survey suggested the sector was also helping the economy to grow in the final quarter of the year, in contrast to preliminary official figures which showed it acted as a drag in the third quarter, Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, said. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

U.S. Bond Yields, Factory Data Boost Dollar. The dollar edged higher on Tuesday, spurred by rising U.S. bond yields and generally in-line U.S. economic data that fed investor expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year end. The greenback rose 0.6% to trade at $1.0945 against the euro and was up 0.3% against the yen to 121.16 yen per dollar. The dollar index retreated after approaching a 12-week high in the morning, but remained up for the day. The dollar index was last up 0.42% at 97.330. The Australian dollar gained 0.74% against the U.S. dollar to $0.7196 after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced it would leave interest rates unchanged. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Up 4% on Supply Issues in Brazil, Libya. Crude prices settled up about 4% on Tuesday as a rally in U.S. gasoline and diesel amid an outage on a key pipeline system added support to oil markets already boosted by an industry strike in Brazil and force majeure for Libyan crude loadings. Brent settled up $1.75, or 3.6%, at $50.54 a barrel, after hitting a session high at $50.91. U.S. crude finished up $1.76, or 3.8%, at $47.90. The day's peak was $48.36. An oil workers' strike in Brazil, the ninth biggest global producer cut around half a million barrels of output in the first 24 hours and has slowed state-run Petrobras' daily oil output by around 25%, according to the workers' union. (Reuters)

Gold Extends Slide for Fifth Session, Hits Four-Week Low. Gold fell nearly 2% to a four-week low on Tuesday, sliding for a fifth straight session as prices came under pressure from a rising dollar and speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may lift interest rates this year. Spot gold was down 1.7% at $1,114.70 an ounce at 1854 GMT, its biggest drop in 3.5-months, having earlier touched its lowest since Oct. 2 at $1,114.10. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 1.9% at $1,114.10 an ounce. Silver was down 1.2% at $15.21 an ounce, platinum was down 1.5% at $957.50 and palladium was down 1% at $640.75. (Reuters)

 

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