Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 5 Nov 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 05 Nov 2015, 09:23 AM

Malaysia

  • Malaysia Unable to Meet Trade Targets on China Slowdown. Malaysia hopes to record a small growth in trade this year despite facing the challenges following the global economic uncertainty, including the drop in crude oil price, said Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed. "We have to be realistic. We do hope to be able to achieve a small growth in trade if possible," he told reporters at the second day of the 11th World Islamic Economic Forum in Kuala Lumpur. Mustapa said China has been slowing down and this has affected its trading partners and Malaysia was no exception. (Bernama)
  • More Companies for GST, Says Ministry. The increase in the number of companies registering for the GST, especially those who did it voluntarily, showed that the tax would be able to reduce trade activities in the 'shadow economy'. The Finance Ministry said the companies registered fast because they could claim input tax refunds. The ministry said as at end-October, 392,382 companies had registered for GST compared to initial expectations for only 146,000 registrations. (Bernama)
  • 1MDB Not Sole Reason for Ringgit's Slide. The government has reiterated that the issue of 1MBD is not the sole reason for the slide in the ringgit's value to the US dollar. Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Johari Abdul Ghani said Wednesday that the decline is due to a number of factors, including investor expectations of a rise in US interest rates. He said negative sentiment such as the vote of no confidence raised by the opposition in asking Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak to step down was another factor. (Bernama)

 

Asia-Pacific

  • China October Services Activity Climbs to Three-Month High. Activity in China's services sector expanded at its fastest pace in three months in October, thanks to stronger new business, a private survey showed. The Caixin/Markit PMI rose to 52.0 in October from September's 14-month low of 50.5, hitting the highest level since July 2015. A sub-index measuring new business jumped to 52.9 from September's 50.5, while the employment sub-index also improved to a three-month high. Still, business expectations moderated to a record low in October. (Reuters)
  • Bank of Thailand Keeps Key Rate Unchanged at 1.5%. Thailand’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for the fourth straight meeting as it waits to assess whether government stimulus spending will succeed in boosting weak local demand. The Bank of Thailand held its one-day bond repurchase rate at 1.5%, with monetary policy committee members voting unanimously in favor. Twenty-two out of 23 economists surveyed predicted the decision. (Bloomberg)
  • Australia Trade Deficit Narrows on Higher Exports. Australia posted a seasonally adjusted trade deficit of A$2.3 billion in September, as a strong rise in exports narrowed the gap from the previous month. Economists had been expecting a deficit of A$2.9 billion in September. The value of exports rose by 3% in the month, overshadowing a 2% increase in the value of imports, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. The trade deficit in August was A$2.7 billion. (Dow Jones)

 

USA

  • Yellen: December Interest Rate Hike a "Live Possibility". Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday that an interest rate hike in December is a "live possibility" if the economy stays on track. Yellen described the U.S. economy as "performing well" right now, with solid growth in domestic spending. At their meeting last week, policymakers believed that the threat of global headwinds had ebbed, Yellen said. Yellen stressed that no decision has been made yet and a move in December will depend on how the economy fares between now and then. She reiterated that when the Fed does start raising rates, it will do so gradually. (AP)
  • U.S. September Trade Deficit Smallest in Seven Months. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in September to its lowest level in seven months as exports rebounded, a tentative sign that the worst of the drag from a stronger dollar may be over. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday the trade gap fell 15% to US$40.8bil (RM174.1bil), the smallest deficit since February. Lower crude oil prices also helped to curb the import bill. Economists had forecast the trade gap shrinking to US$41.1bil (RM175.4bil). Trade had a neutral impact on GDP for the third quarter. (Reuters)
  • Bond Market Inflation Gauge Rises to Six-Week High Before Yellen. The inflation outlook in the U.S. bond market climbed to the highest level in six weeks, driving speculation the increase will help encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. U.S. The price of the 2% note due August 2025 was 98 6/32. The yield climbed to 2.22% on Tuesday, the highest in almost seven weeks. The difference between yields on 10-year notes and similar-maturity Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of trader expectations for consumer prices over the life of the debt, climbed to 1.59 percentage points Tuesday. It was the highest level since Sept. 17. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

  • Eurozone Business Growth Remained Tepid in October. Eurozone business growth remained tepid last month, with the European Central Bank's massive stimulus program having little apparent impact on economic activity or price pressures, a survey showed on Wednesday. Compiler Markit said the surveys pointed to quarterly economic growth of around 0.4%, in line with the forecast in a poll published in October. Markit's final October Composite PMI came in at 53.9, weaker than an earlier estimate of 54.0 but above September's four-month low of 53.6. (Reuters)
  • Eurozone September Producer Price Decline Steepest Since January. Eurozone industrial producer prices fell by slightly less than expected in September, but still recorded the steepest annual decline since January due to even lower energy prices. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said prices at factory gates in the 19 countries sharing the euro decreased by 3.1% YoY in September, and by 0.3% compared to August. Excluding volatile energy prices, producer prices were down 0.2% in September and were 0.6% lower than a year earlier. (Reuters)
  • Euro-Area Bonds Gain as Draghi Says He's Still Ready to Boost QE. Euro-area government bonds rose after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated that the institution will reconsider their policy stance at the December meeting to assess whether enough support was being provided to the region’s economy. These comments helped debt markets to regain their advance. The yield on Germany’s 10-year bunds, Europe’s benchmark sovereign securities, dropped one basis point to 0.56%. (Bloomberg)

 

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