Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 6 Nov 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 06 Nov 2015, 09:29 AM

Global

Pacific Trade Partners Promise Not to Cheat on Currencies. Pacific trade partners have pledged not to deliberately weaken their currencies to win an export edge as part of a new free trade pact, the US Treasury said on Wednesday. All 12 members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) promised to publicly report data on currency intervention and foreign reserve holdings. A senior US Treasury official said, however, that countries would have to defend their policies in front of a group of peers, with meetings of TPP officials on currency and economic policy scheduled at least once a year. Treasury official said Malaysia and Singapore would provide data on currency intervention for the first time. (Reuters)

Bonds Slide with Emerging Market Currencies, Metals on Fed. Weaker developing-nation currencies and rising bond yields show that once again Janet Yellen has global investors pondering whether markets can withstand an increase in U.S. interest rates before year-end. Treasury two-year note yields climbed to the highest since 2011 and Australian 10-year yields advanced for a sixth day. The yield on U.K. two-year notes climbed to the highest since October 2014 before the Bank of England sets policy Thursday. The yield added two basis points to 0.73%, while the 10-year yield climbed one basis point to 2.01%. (Bloomberg)

 

Malaysia

TPP Full Text Uploaded to MITI Portal. The full text of the recently concluded Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been uploaded to the International Trade and Industry Ministry's (MITI) website. International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said the 12 countries involved in the TPP negotiations had agreed for the full text of the agreement and schedules to be made public. The TPP is expected to be tabled in Parliament for debate and approval in January or February next year. (Bernama)

Hiring Demand Still Strong in Malaysia, Says Report. The job market in Malaysia continues to remain upbeat, according to the Michael Page 2016 Southeast Asia Salary and Employment Outlook. "We have observed an increase in hiring on a national basis rather than just Kuala Lumpur and the surrounding areas," said Michael Page managing director for Malaysia and Thailand, Paul Cooper. As Malaysia seeks to become a manufacturing and logistics hub, demand for talents in these sectors has risen, with 31% of employers looking for talents in the manufacturing sector and 22% in the logistics sector, the report said. (Bernama)

 

Asia

Pacific Trade Pact Tackles Malaysia Trafficking, Vietnam Labor. Malaysia will have to fully implement measures to combat human trafficking and Vietnam must allow independent labor unions before reaping the benefits of a new Pacific trade deal, details of the pact released on Thursday showed. In Malaysia, required reforms will make it clear that it is illegal for employers to hold workers' passports, ensure employment levies are paid by employers and not workers, extend protections against excessive recruitment fees to all recruitment agencies and employers, and stop agencies which violate labor laws from bringing in new overseas workers. Vietnam will have to allow workers to form their own autonomous unions. (Reuters)

Indonesia's Economy Expanded Less Than Estimated Last Quarter. Indonesia’s economy expanded less than analysts estimated last quarter on weak household spending and exports, underscoring the challenge for the government as it seeks to build infrastructure and lift business confidence. GDP rose 4.73% in the three months through September from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said on Thursday. That compared with 4.67% expansion the previous quarter, and was less than the median estimate for 4.8% growth in a survey of 23 economists. (Bloomberg)

China Signals Reserve Ratios May Be Used to Discipline Banks. China’s cabinet indicated that reserve-ratio requirements, the rules that require banks to park money with the central bank, could be used to discipline any lenders that compete too aggressively for deposits under newly-loosened interest-rate rules. Officials will step up regulation of “irrational pricing activities” after removing a decades-old control on deposit rates last month, according to the State Council’s statement after a meeting. The central bank has said that banks will be disciplined if they set deposit rates too high or disrupt the market. (Bloomberg)

Thai Stimulus Lifts Consumer Mood for First Time in Nearly a Year. Thai consumer confidence rose for the first time in 10 months, a university survey showed on Thursday, boosted by stimulus measures from the military government as it tries to revive the economy. The consumer confidence index of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce increased to 73.4 in October from 72.1 in September, when it struck a 16-month low. In a bid to boost the economy, the junta recently approved stimulus measures worth 136 billion baht ($3.84 billion) aimed at lifting rural areas' purchasing power. (Reuters)

 

USA

US Jobless Aid Requests Rise but Still Near Historic Lows. More Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, but levels remain near historic lows as employers are hesitant to let go of workers. The Labor Department said Thursday that a seasonally adjusted 276,000 people sought jobless aid last week, up from 260,000 in the prior week. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 3,500 to 262,750. The four-week average has stayed below 300,000 since

late March, achieving levels traditionally linked with a healthy job market. The slowdown in growth and hiring has yet to correspond with an increase in lay-offs, a sign that employers expect the economy to strengthen in the coming months. (AP)

 

Europe

EU Cuts Growth and Inflation Outlook as ECB Decision Looms. The European Commission cut its euro-area growth and inflation outlook for next year, citing more challenging global conditions and fading impetus from lower oil prices and a weaker euro. GDP in the 19-nation bloc is set to grow 1.8% in 2016, down from a previous projection of 1.9% in May, the Commission said Thursday. Inflation is seen accelerating to 1.6% in 2017 from 0.1% this year. Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook shows few signs of abating. Risks include a larger-than-anticipated slowdown in China and financial-market volatility triggered by a normalization of U.S. monetary policy, according to the report. (Bloomberg)

Bank of England Lowers Growth Outlook, Holds Rates. The Bank of England on Thursday trimmed its forecast for British economic growth this year, warning about potential risks from a slowdown in emerging markets. GDP was predicted to grow 2.7% this year, down from a previous estimate of 2.8% given in August, the BoE forecast after holding its key interest rate at a record-low 0.50%. The central bank also downgraded next year's GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.7%. (AFP)

 

 

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