Fundamental Overview

▪ MYR fell against a basket of major currencies last week as rising COVID-19 infections globally, led by the US, fuelled second wave fears, sparking a rush for safety. On top of that, IMF warning on a risk of market correction coupled with US-EU trade war fears, pushed ringgit lower against the greenback.

▪ Despite the expectation of more risk-off environment over the next few weeks, optimism in oil markets and rising inflows of foreign direct investment into Malaysia are expected to restore MYR strength this week. However, S&P negative outlook on the country may exert some pressure on the local note.

Technical Analysis

▪ EMA signals that MYR will reverse the bearish trend last week, trading slightly higher against the greenback by 0.24% to 4.280 this week.

▪ The short term USDMYR technical analysis indicates a bearish USD trend. A breakout below the support level of 4.278 (S1) could propel the pair towards another check at 4.266 (S2). Otherwise, an upward resumption would expose the pair to an immediate resistance at 4.297 (R1).

Source: Kenanga Research - 29 Jun 2020