Fundamental Overview

▪ MYR appreciated to its strongest level in five months, trading below the 4.20 threshold, on a weaker USD, particularly in the first half of the week, favourable MGS-Treasury yield divergence and rising oil prices amid reports of a drawdown in the US crude oil inventories.

▪ Ringgit may trade slightly lower this week on upbeat US jobs data, an expected plunge in MY’s 2Q20 GDP, issuance of executive orders to extend the US COVID-19 economic relief and ahead of the high-level US-CN trade talk on August 15th.

Technical Analysis

▪ After appreciating more than 2.0% since the end of 2Q20, MYR may retrace and pulls back against the USD towards the 4.202 level as signalled by our EMA technical indicator.

▪ The movement of the pair this week will be heavily influenced by how USDMYR behave around the (S1) 4.177 level, a breach of which could propel the pair towards the (S2) 4.167 level. However, possible dollar’s upside retracement above the (R1) 4.210 level may trigger a bullish uptrend towards the (R2) 4.231 level and beyond.

Source: Kenanga Research - 10 Aug 2020