Export growth contracted for the seventh straight month (-13.7% YoY; Aug: -18.7%), but beating expectations (KIBB: -17.8%; consensus: -16.5%)
− MoM (8.2%; Aug: -1.5%): exports rebounded sharply following two straight months of contraction.
− 3Q23 (-15.2%; 2Q23: -11.1%): Overall, growth fell to the lowest since 3Q09 (-21.9%), reflecting subdued external demand during the quarter amid the impact of global economic slowdown alongside the high base effect recorded last year.
Slowdown persisted among key sectors and major export destinations
− By destination: major partners recorded growth contraction, led by JP (-25.4%; Aug: -19.4%), followed by CN (-17.3%; Aug: -20.3%), SG (-12.0%; Aug: -19.4%), and the US (-9.3%; Aug: -9.7%). However, share to total exports expanded, led by SG (14.9%; Aug: 14.6%), followed by CN (13.4%; Aug: 12.8%) and the US (11.9%; Aug: 11.7%).
− By sector: sustained slowdown led by contraction in mining (-28.0%; Aug: -23.3%) sector, followed by the agriculture (-23.1%; Aug: -27.2%) and manufacturing (-11.8%; Aug: -17.7%) sectors.
− By product: mainly weighed down by petroleum products (-37.9%; Aug: -38.6% YoY), followed by liquified natural gas (-37.8%; Aug: -26.0%) and palm oil & palm oil-based products (-26.5%; Aug: -31.9%) in line with lower global commodity prices. Besides, exports of E&E, our major export product, remained subdued (-5.3%; Aug: -15.3%).
Imports fell (-11.1%; Aug: -21.2%), higher than house forecast (-9.5%) but beating consensus (-12.1%)
− Weak import growth due to sustained weakness in both re-exports (-17.9%; Aug: -33.8%) and retained imports (- 8.2%; Aug: -16.3%), albeit easing. Nevertheless, imports rebounded on MoM (2.1%; Aug: -1.6%).
− By category, it was a broad-based slowdown led by intermediate (-15.6%; Aug: -22.5%), followed by capital (-5.4%; Aug: 5.3%) and consumption (-0.6%; Aug: -5.5%) goods.
− 3Q23 (-16.3%; 2Q23: -11.5%): weakest quarter since 3Q09.
Trade surplus jumped to a three-month high to RM24.5b (Aug: RM17.2b), beating expectations (KIBB: RM20.5b; consensus: RM21.7b). However, trade surplus in 3Q23 remained weak, it fell by 9.1% YoY (2Q23: -9.2%)
− Meanwhile, total trade remained weak (-12.6%; Aug: -19.9%), but growth contraction eased during the month. Nevertheless, total trade during the quarter rebounded slightly to 1.7% (2Q23: -15.7%).
2023 exports forecast retained at -5.7% (2022: 24.9%) on hopes for a recovery in the final quarter
− Year to date (Jan-Sep), exports fell by 8.4%. This is attributed to lower commodity prices, weaker global trade activity, and the effect of the high base recorded last year. The slowdown is expected to extend towards the end of the year as the high base effect persists. Nevertheless, we expect growth contraction to ease as the high base effect dissipates, supported by China's ongoing recovery. Likewise, we keep our cautious outlook on the external sector, as we expect demand to be weighed by a higher interest rate environment.
− Given the slowdown in external trade recorded during the quarter, we expect 3Q23 GDP growth to slow sharply to 1.7% (2Q23: 2.9%), with full-year growth projected to settle at 3.5% - 4.0% (2022: 8.7%). Nonetheless, we believe growth will continue to be supported by a resilient domestic demand.
Be the first to like this. Showing 0 of 0 comments
Post a Comment
People who like this
Featured Posts
MQ Trader
Introducing MY's First IPO Fund for Sophisticated Investors!
MQ Chat
New Update. Discover investment communities that resonate with your ideas
MQ Trader
M & A Value Partners IPO Equity Fund has been launched - Targeted 13% Return p.a
Latest Videos
0:17
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 3359 views | 3 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....