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[转帖] 消费税的玄虚 - 刘镇东

Tan KW
Publish date: Sat, 26 Oct 2013, 01:40 PM
Tan KW
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刘镇东

GST1讨论消费税,流传着很多奥威尔式doublespeak(故弄玄虚)的术语。本文因此想不用任何的术语来把话说白。

有一种听起来好像头头是道的说法:为了确保政府财政状况良好,政府要狠、要有决心,要敢敢推行消费税来“平衡政府收支”、要涨油价,或曰“津贴合理化”。当中歪理很多,对小市民的生活状况没有同理心,也对经济如何流动、增长与萧条没有全面的理解。

国阵政府为什么要征收消费税?消费税从阿都拉在2005年提出至今,支持的人最主要说法是,消费税是“最有效率”的收税方式。“最有效率”的收税方式是什么意思?说白了,就是政府可以从百姓的袋子里征收到比现在更高的税收。

另一个说法是,世界140余个国都在实行,马来西亚不应该落后他国。但是,当世界其他国家民主化了,国阵的支持者没有说,我们也要赶上民主列车。世界上只剩下20个国家的投票年龄定在21岁,其他国家的合格投票年龄都比21岁低,怎么也不来学习。

其实,晚近十年,特别是2008年全球金融风暴以后,当全球的目光重新回到贫富差距的讨论之际,越来越多国家和学者在反省消费税加剧贫富差距的结果。例如,赚1万令吉收入的人,只花其中的一半收入在消费,而在消费中他付了5%的税金,与赚1千令吉的人把所有的收入都拿来消费,5%的意义是不一样的。

还有一种说法,消费税最公平,让所有人都付税。他们说马来西亚太少人缴税了,有了消费税,天底下的人都缴税,对本来承担国家税务的一小撮人是迟来的正义。当6成的家庭是一马援助金的合格援助对象,意思说这个国家6成的家庭,每月收入不达3千令吉,够辛苦了。当然,这个社会肯定有逃税的人,我们也有足够的法律对付逃税的人,关键只是在执法。其他的人不纳税,是因为没有能力纳税,还没有到应该纳税的门槛。

有高官出来说,贫穷人士需要的日用品都免消费税。问题是,谁是贫穷人士?如果6成的家庭需要援助,大费周章换了一个税制然后豁免6成人口的消费行为?什么才是贫穷人士的日用品?以后“正常人的日用品” 与“贫穷人士的日用品”楚河汉界?

再有一种说法,说征了消费税,可以减免销售税,以后还可以减所得税。马来西亚的所得税,把中间阶层每月收入5千令吉至1万令吉的不上不下的收入群征得很辛苦,这是需要承认的事实,也需要税制改革,减轻中等收入家庭的负担,转嫁到真正的高收入群。但是,马来西亚的所得税不想英国、澳洲等先进国推行消费税前高达50%以上的税率。马来西亚的所得税,可以减免的空间很小。

说到底,其实政府也很坦白,高官们都说消费税是为了平衡国家财政收支的“苦口良药”,苦的是小市民,“平衡”了好让公家可以继续挥霍、歌舞升平。

还有一个更关键的问题:杀鸡取卵。过去马来西亚主要靠出口美国。过去数年,美国自顾不暇,美国工人吃不饱饿不死也没有钱消费亚洲口的产品。马来西亚在过去至少三年的经济成长来自于国内消费。国内消费除了政府的开支以外,就是来自老百姓的消费。很多的消费是小市民借贷来消费的。大家都借了很多钱,马来西亚是亚洲家庭借贷第二高的国家,风暴万一来袭,痛苦指数肯定很高。

消费税的本质就是向本来没有钱纳税的人收税。本来不必纳税的6成一马援助金援助对象人口,现在都要被征税,征走了的税,就是市面上少了的国内消费市场。实行消费税的恶果,不只是传说中的通货膨胀,最大的恶果是导致需求降低、进而导致萧条。

 

Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 5 of 5 comments

bsngpg

NO GST, PLEASE!!!!

I lost in a bet. I bet for no GST since it was brought up in 2005 as I opine that the mass affected by GST is mainly supporter of goverment and it is unwise for goverment to lift a rock to hit its own foot. The biggest portion of lower income population in M’sia so long does not pay any tax yet just barely strive through the escalating cost of living. Many of them will lose in their daily life battle with implementation of GST as now they have to fork out extra 6% to buy dresses, shoes, school uniform, smart phones, TV, motorcycles, used cars, lot of groceries from supermarkets. Please do not be naïve to think that if you are poor thus you should not buy a smart phone.

My worry is the already terrible high crime rate may increase further along with the increasing “financial-failed” fraction of the society.

Extracting out the political element if you think there is any, the article by Liew was very well written. I have the same thought all along but unfortunately do not have capability as him to express out in writing.

If I were in government I will cut expense on public servant while encouraging them to join private sector, provide tax incentive to private sector to take locals instead of all foreign work force. On one hand we have too fatty public sector but on the other hand we are badly short of work force in private sector.

2013-10-26 15:04

bsngpg

“例如,赚1万令吉收入的人,只花其中的一半收入在消费,而在消费中他付了5%的税金,与赚1千令吉的人把所有的收入都拿来消费,5%的意义是不一样的。”

Fully agree with the above statement.

Assume Mr. A earns 10K/month(120K/year), and save RM60K/year.
With the 3% lower personal tax, Mr A saves RM1500/year=RM125/month(rough estimation only as I do not go into calculation in detail) from personal tax.

Assume 3K out of the 5K monthly expenses is taxable on GST, 6% x 3K=180/month.

Net to net, due to GST, Mr A spends extra RM180-RM125=RM55/month(RM660/year). In another word, Mr A saves RM660/year less from the original RM60K/year.RM60K-RM660=RM59340/year in saving.

Mr B earns RM3K/month with zero income tax and zero saving.
Assume 2k out of the 3K is taxable on GST, 6% x 2K=120/month is his extra spending/month.

Originally, Mr B barely strives through each month with zero saving; with GST he will be negative RM120/month.

The above excludes the indirect prices increase on most of the products across the country.

With that I foresee the country will face very big challenge in 2015 and the GST is likely reduced or withdrew in 2017 in preparation of GE14.

2013-10-26 15:51

bsngpg

“别在乞丐盆里拿钱”

Hi Mr FortuneBull : It should be OK to implement in M’sia if just follow academic theory and compare to Thai and Indonesia which are very similar to M’sia. But in my opinion, our country can get source of income from many other places instead of GST. I am thinking more for the lower income group. I am considerably in a higher income group, the GST has marginal impact on me but many low income families will really be hit badly. I knew it as my surrounding is full of them including family of my own sibling. How about a lot of lower income Malay and Indian? A good people or government should earn money from rich but never and never from the poor. Just like Cantonese saying “别在乞丐盆里拿钱”

2013-10-26 16:09

limkitsiang

gst or no gst...just want to share and hopefully up the price of...
.very exited with what has been posted by nobby regarding PW CONSOLIDATED BHD Posted by nobby > Oct 25, 2013 08:19 PM | Report Abuse
....PW CONSOLIDATED BHD
Financial Year End 31/12/2013
Quarter 2
Quarterly report for the financial period ended 30/06/2013

Revenue
......CURRENT YEAR QUARTER....................................30/06/2013. = RM 57,543,000
......PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER 30/06/2012..= RM 54,338,000

====> increase of revenue q to q........................= ( 57,543,000 - 54,338,000 ) / 54,338,000 x 100
..........................................................................................................
..........................................................................................................= 5.90 % !!!

Profit/(loss) before tax
......CURRENT YEAR QUARTER....................................30/06/2013..= RM 3,214,000
......PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER 30/06/2012..= RM 1,402,000

====> increase of profit before tax q to q............= ( 3,214,000 - 1,402,000 ) / 1,402,000 x 100
..........................................................................................................
..........................................................................................................= 129.24 % !!!

Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
......CURRENT YEAR QUARTER....................................30/06/2013..= RM 1,731,000
......PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER 30/06/2012..= RM 1,143,000

====> increase of net profit.................................= ( 1,731,000 - 1,143,000 ) / 1,143,000 x 100
..........................................................................................................
..........................................................................................................= 51.44 % !!!


Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
......CURRENT YEAR QUARTER....................................30/06/2013..= 2.90 cents
......PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER 30/06/2012..= 1.91 cents

====> increase of earnings/(loss) per share ......= ( 2.90 - 1.91 ) / 1.91 x 100
..........................................................................................................
..........................................................................................................= 51.83 % !!!

Cummulative basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) for 1st and 2nd quarters
......CURRENT YEAR QUARTER....................................30/06/2013..
..........................................................................................................= 5.11 cents !!!


Cummulative earnings per share for Trailing Twelve Months from 2012-09-30 to 2013-06-30
..........................................................................................................
..........................................................................................................= 8.14 cents !!!

Projected Cummulative earnings per share for
......CURRENT YEAR QUARTER....................................30/06/2013..
............................................................................= 5.11 + ( 8.61 + 0.00) x 51.83 /100 *
..........................................................................................................= 9.57 cents !!!
*based on 51.83% growth and 3rd and 4th quarters preceeding
corresponding year of 2012

DIVIDEN ASSUMPTION for 2013
..........................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................= 7.00 cents !!!


SPECIAL DIVIDEN ASSUMPTION for 2013
..........................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................= 19.50 cents !!!
**based on sale of lands with net profit of AT LEAST RM 20m
and number of shares = 60,911,250 units
RM20,000,000 / 60,911,250 = RM 0.3283
with 60% distribution to shareholders
= RM 0.3283 x 60 /100
= RM 0.1970
apprimately= 19.5 cents

PROJECTED DIVIDEN SUM FOR 2013
............................................................................= 7.00 + 19.50 .........................................................................................................= 26.50 cents !!!

Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($)
......AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER.....................30/06/2013..= RM 3.51 !!!
......AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END............ 30/06/2012..= RM 3.45 !!!
.........................................................................
..........................................................................................price now = ONLY UNDER 70 CENTs
PW CONSOLIDATED BHD

2013-10-26 16:20

Fortunebull

Bsngp! Maybe my comment on LGE send resentment! I dont know! Ok! I remove my comment!

2013-10-26 16:55

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