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Lesson From Speculating In Good Stock - Bursa Dummy

Tan KW
Publish date: Thu, 18 Sep 2014, 04:04 PM
Tan KW
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Good.

 

Thursday, 18 September 2014 

 
I keep record of my previous share trading transaction since I started trading in stock market in year 2006.
 
Readers who followed this blog should know that in my "early days", I tried to invest only in "fundamentally strong" companies with my very limited fundamental knowledge.
 
After a few years, when I have the luxury of working in front of a computer, I witnessed the up & down of share market live on the screen, almost everyday. 
 
So why not buy low and sell high to earn some money for a good dinner?
 
Inevitably, I started to speculate in stock market.
 
Nevertheless, to minimize the risk, I only speculated in those stocks that I think were fundamentally sound.
 
 
Recently, I plan to write a bit about my stock market investment journey. So I go through my previous transaction records. Guess what I found?
 
HUAYANG. Yes, it's that property developer.
 
From my record, I bought Huayang on 14th Oct 2010 at RM0.985 per share, and amazingly sold all at RM0.990 on 12th Nov 2010. It was a small loss after transaction fees are included.
 
I almost forgot about this transaction.
 
I bought it just shortly after Huayang's first bonus issues went ex-ed on 24th Sep 2010.
 
 
       Huayang: 2010
 
 
Huayang's share price fell soon after its first bonus issue, which should be the reason that caught my attention. Previously I like to speculate on those stocks which dropped a lot, as I thought I will have better chance to gain from them.
 
As you can see from the chart above, 3 months earlier in July 2010, Huayang is still an unknown stock with minimal volume. If I were a long term investor that time, the timing and share price of my entry would be great!
 
Unfortunately for me, I think I have lost patience in Huayang only after 1 month, as there was no U-turn in share price! I decided to dispose entirely at minimal loss.
 
What will happen if I hold its shares until today?
 
 
       Huayang: 2010-2014
 
 
After the first bonus, Huayang has another 3 bonus issues which are:
Oct 2011 - Bonus 1:3
Oct 2012 - Bonus 1:4
Oct 2013 - Bonus 1:3
 
If I bought 1,000 shares of Huayang at 98.5sen on 14th Oct 2010 and hold until today, I'll have 2,222 shares today. At current share price of RM2.40, it is worth RM5333. 
 
So from RM985 to RM5333 in 4 years, it is a 440% gain not including the dividends!
 
Net dividends from that time will be 40.875sen. Thus total return should be RM5741, or 483%, or 5.8 times!
 
For me, it is a 483% loss...
 
The lesson is, aim to hold good & growing company forever, until its fundamental has changed or profitability has declined.
 
 

 

Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 24 of 24 comments

ronnie2u

Warren Buffett hold for long term too

2014-09-18 16:13

LyyInvestor

Thanks for sharing . :)

2014-09-18 17:08

kimkhat

Totally agreed.

2014-09-18 19:48

Ricky Kiat

totally agreed x 2

2014-09-18 21:06

Icon8888

totally agreed x 3

2014-09-18 21:07

SeriousInvestor1945

FULLY AGREE

2014-09-18 21:11

Icon8888

i like bursa dummy. He / she sounds like a rationale person, minus the ego and arrogance that comes with success in life

2014-09-18 21:14

bsngpg

I have to agree totally with the strategy of buying good company and hold for very long term. However please allow me to express different view that it is not necessarily right at all the times and all shares. Example Zhulian, the company keeps on growing unabatedly, as well its share price. And out of sudden from nowhere its earning and share price diarrhea likes nobody business from 5+ to now 2+. Mahsing, CIMB, Genting and GenM are another few examples where holding good companies for long term is not equal to huge profit as at today. Nevertheless, positive return is still there.

(maybe few years later they will explode)

2014-09-18 21:44

NOBY

I normally dont like to hold a stock that already has too much expectation built in the share price... such stocks will fall hard at the slightest drop in earnings. Rather get them cheap when they are still unnoticed. Holding for long term certainly works if u hit the jackpot but not all stocks are like HuaYang...

2014-09-19 00:15

Icon8888

Bsngpg I don't think you should hold indefinitely.

I hold for about 100% profit and them cash out. It usually took 2 to 3 years.

I don't believe in short term trading. But you need to be nimble also. Don't be afraid to take profit if there is satisfactory profit

2014-09-19 00:31

youlee

So buy Ekovest now and after 2 years, 200 percent up. Hopefully.

2014-09-19 02:06

stockoperator

During Bull, stocks reach the Top at different time. If you are good then you can opt for Rotation and Re-Balancing every quarter.

During Bear, almost all reach Bottom at the same time.

2014-09-19 12:16

tptan45

Hmmm, with hindsight yes. Maybe you can workout the same thing if you had bought something like MAS?

2014-09-19 14:11

jkct01

I totally agree with your post. Hope to learn more from you!

2014-09-19 15:04

Kevin Wong

Have a portfolio of 6 to 10 stocks. Choose counters that have a record of uptrending profits & share price. Hold for about 2 years, then keep the winners & dump the losers. There are of course many other investing methods & strategies. I also believe that small investors, need a little bit of luck. I believe one should never try to time or outsmart mart - concentrate on individual counters instead of trying to outmanoeuvre market. But, i don't know whether all this works for all or not, it howeverr gave me - above average market beating return.

2014-09-19 15:19

bsngpg

Dilemma of long term investors. On one side, it is their investing philosophy to hold forever as long as the company is still growing, on another side is the risk of profit vaporization. By the time, the deterioration of company's profit is confirmed, share price must have dropped significantly, and so their paper profit. Therefore to sell or not to is the most difficult thing to judge and to me it is much depend on luck.

2014-09-19 19:27

yongyou

good sharing

2014-09-20 13:17

stockoperator

Dear bsngpg

I think it is time to let Zhulian go. If it is Only Zhulian, then you are making less mistakes than me, than Warren, than whoever is.

I think you are totally doing fine, good and fantastic. But most of the time we are too critical of ourselves instead of patting ourselves on the back. So what do we do? We change course and method all the time. End of the day we are not going anywhere again.

You are with me all the time in my every counter. If you are wrong then i am wrong also.

2014-09-20 14:45

stockoperator

Surely we try to learn something out of Zhulian.

In hindsight we should learn more about its business model, without such knowledge, we cant say whether it is good price to invest even Now.

What happens to Zhulian will happen to any stocks that we hold. It wont be luck alone to invest or not at this price.

2014-09-20 14:56

stockoperator

Well, all and bsngpg

In our course of portfolio investment and building long term wealth, we will tumble along for sure. Along the way, we will weed and tender to our portfolio like a patient gardener and like a patient gardener, we will pull the weeds, apply fertilizer and wait patiently for fruits in years to come.

2014-09-20 15:14

bsngpg

Hi Mr. Stockoperator and Mr. Icon8888: Thank you very much for good words.

Even though Zhulian was quoted as an example from 5+ to 2+ to SUPPORT the discussed topic, it should be confined within those bought from 2+ to 5+.
In my actual case, I incurred big paper or theoretical loss from 5+ to 2+ because during RM5.0 and above, I was really pondering very hard each day if I should sell. Unfortunately I did not sell any.

Nevertheless, I would very HUMBLY and quietly to tell that my current return from Zhulian is still very “fairy tale” >200% @ 5 years.

In my long journey of investment, three catastrophic and very expensive errors were made which made me almost impossible to make reasonable return for long term CAGR even for another many years to come unless there are another few more heavy holdings turn to fairies such as Mahsing and Padini.

In short, I still very strongly believe in long term hold strategy.

2014-09-20 16:57

bsngpg

Hi Stock: after your highlight, I am now realize that we really have many similarity in selection of stocks. I believe you have Fimacorp which I do not have but I do have KFima, one of my passive holding.

2014-09-20 18:12

stockoperator

Dear friend,

yap.

In my mind Now however is to have A good check list to Avoid catastrophic and Very expensive Mistake in future since you mentioned.

i think it is quite common among us. It can be either one of them:

1) Highly priced popular tech due to High growth expectation;
2) Long years of unabated profit and growth starts crumbling down;
3) Not understanding its Business Nature and Business Model Only knows the figures;
4) Chasing the price;

The above is Not the Mistakes If we manage the small losses. The above will Only become an expensive mistake if We don't admit our ignorance and double down and triple down on Our losses.

Am I right, my friend?

Well at the same time we are so good to invest in bad times and i always wait for the moments to double down and triple down. So what do we do Now?

It is the moments of truth of Break and Make. Let's see what we made of. Let's see if we can understand that moment and the moments.

2014-09-20 22:11

speakup

INVEST! dont speculate

2014-09-20 22:35

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