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Being fearfully greedy: Why I buy in bear markets

Tan KW
Publish date: Sat, 18 Apr 2015, 10:45 PM
Tan KW
0 459,766
Good.

 

To conclude, because we don’t know what will happen to prices in the short-term, we can only buy with a long-term goal in mind and hope we’re not hit by some true wealth destroying phenomena like nuclear war or a return to communism.



Greed and fear

Say you’re a young-ish investor like me, with 30 years of earnings ahead, yet already holding a reasonable portfolio.
If you’re fearfully greedy, then when markets are rising – as they did since 2003 – you’re glad your money was invested instead of spent on holidays and TVs.
That’s greed taken care of. (Greed is the easy bit!)
However, you should also be fearful of sudden reversals that rob you as quick as a pickpocket.
In the stock market, money disappears like in Tommy Cooper‘s magic tricks: “Just like that!”
Of course nobody is complacent when markets are consistently falling. Instead, the fear often gets overdone.
Yet if you’re young and well-positioned, you should be glad you’ve got the chance to buy the same shares you were buying last month for 10%, 20%, or even 50% less than before.
You’ll be scared, too. Your new ‘bargain’ shares could halve again in a truly vicious bear market.
The greedy bit is thinking about your future long-term gains. The fearful bit is not over-doing it in the short-term.

 



http://monevator.com/being-fearfully-greedy-why-i-buy-in-bear-markets/ 

 

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 24 of 24 comments

calvintaneng

It is easy to say "We buy low and sell high".

In reality it is Very hard.

Put it this way.

Will you buy Singapore Sentosa Lands When it was called Pulau Belakang Mati? In a time when prisoners were executed there? Land prices were then at its lowest. You can get it for 1 cent psf and sell it 70 years later for RM7,000 psf! 1 cent per sq ft? Probably nobody even bothered!

Will you buy New York Lands just after 911? When 2 planes Crashed into Twin Towers. Many sellers looking for almost zero buyers then.

Well, on December 15th, 16th & 17th 2014 80% to 90% of Bursa Shares Dropped to Its Lowest Bottom for the year. PM Corp was 17 to 18 cents only. Kbunai dropped to the year lowest at 5.5 cents. IFCA, OKA & Benelac fell below 60 cents.

The times were indeed fearful. People were throwing like no tomorrow. But that was the time to run? Many did! I heard almost 99% of the people saying, "Buy now? It will get cheaper". Most stock brokering houses like UOB Kay Hian, OSK, KN Kenanga, CIMB, Hwang, Inter Pacific were quite devoid of people then.

But that WAS THE TIME TO BUY!!

YES! YES! A THOUSAND TIMES YES!

DECEMBER 15TH 2014

DECEMBER 16TH 2014

DECEMBER 17TH 2014

AT THE BOTTOM OF THE YEAR 2014 WHEN BARGAINS WERE EVERYWHERE ALL HAVE FLED IN FEAR!

How to Buy When You Are Looking At Flying Arrows Coming Towards You!

As Mark Mobius put it.

It's like something flying towards your face. Instinctively you wanted to duck!

But you grin you teeth. Will it hit my face? Ha! There is the natural fear of being hit badly and get injured! Preservation of life is instinctive! Sell at the bottom lest we finally lost all?

So Mark Mobius doesn't duck his head. After Lehman Brothers' Debacle He SAW Great Bargains in Emerging Markets.

So to buy Low We MUST GO AGAINST OUR OWN NATURAL INSTINCT!

WE HAVE TO GO AGAINST OUR FEELING OF FOLLOWING THE CROWD IN EUPHORIA

WE MUST GO AGAINST THE FEARFUL CROWD AND BRAVE IT!

ALL THESE ACTIONS ARE NOT NATURAL.

NOT NATURAL, CRAZY, ECCENTRIC, THE LONE RANGER, "SOR CHAI"?

WHATEVER YOU CALL IT. THIS IS THE WAY!

THE ONLY WAY TO BUY LOW!!

Do YOU get it?

2015-04-19 09:54

jm3525

calvin your absolutely true...

2015-04-19 10:19

r°Moi

Calvin...

Have 1Q for you.. hope you can be my GPS

If I have like only 6 hours but want to tour the whole of Iskandar.. how should I go about it?? What places should I take a look??

Coming from KL...kindly provide starting point... next.. next... next... to ending point

Use the most efficient routes.. tolled roads are ok.. and if possible also have the opportunities to have some good local foods

TQVM

2015-04-19 10:48

calvintaneng

Ah Moi,

6 hours too short to see all of Iskandar. Let me think what is the best route to take. Will post again later.

2015-04-19 10:55

LeiJun

I've never been to Iskandar also. Is it worth investing there? I find maintaining a property tedious, need to seek out tenants, monitor monthly rental, pay bills... . Any good property management company available to handle all these...

Sorry, we are talking stock or property here... If I've deviated, my apologies... Hehehh...

Anyway, CalvinTanEng, I agree buy during bear market. Ppl throw we collect! :)

2015-04-19 11:29

calvintaneng

LeiJun,

I am still trying to figure out the best places to visit in Iskandar to visit & the shortest route possible. Will post when ready.

Back to your question. Is it worth investing there?

YES! Definitely! Iskandar is now in a Multi year Boom.

According to his Royal Highness The Sultan of Johor. In future Singaporeans will work in Singapore but stay in Johor. In time past people worked in KL but stayed in P.J. Later when jobs were available PJ people no longer travel to KL for work, plenty of jobs in PJ. So in future there will be lots of manufacturing jobs, IT jobs, Hospitality, Leisure & other jobs available in Johor.

To enhance connectivity there will be 3 upcoming projects:

1) Spore Thomson - JB CBD MRT Link. Already started work on Spore side

2) KL - Nusajaya - Spore High Speed Rail (Bullet Train).

3) Iskandar Rail Net Work. Johor Sultan already stated that Forest City will be linked by Monorail.

So this is still the right time to buy Iskandar before all the connecting networks are in place. Any property management cos?
There are usually high end condos. AND YOU MUST AVOID BUYING HIGH END CONDOS IN ISKANDAR. For now there is a glut. Go For Landed Property instead. Landed properties are still Very cheap compared to KL, Penang, KK & Kuching.

Why not migrate to Iskandar? Then get one of the many upcoming good jobs. Then buy your landed property here. Like moving to Bandar Utama in the early 1990s when a 2 storey house was only less than RM400,000.

You can still get a Gated Guarded 2 story house in Ecoworld Kota Masai for around RM463K - launching soon.

Anyway, the decision is yours.

But The Future is Very Bright in Iskandar for the Next 50 Years.

To be continued...

2015-04-19 11:56

hsteoh56

i own a house in Puteri Wangsa, i left the area 4 my hometown in Kedah since 2009 after retired.at that time i intended 2 disposed the said property 4 only RM180k,2 raise fund 4 my child education.but a lot of potential buyers still complaint that the price was quite high!may i know what is the current market price of a 4r3b 2 story house with land area of 22'x70' in the area?

2015-04-19 12:37

LeiJun

CalvinTanEng,
Why avoid high end condo there? Glut ala ghost cities in China? As for migrating to Johor dunno le... The weekend hol all changed right? Did they also implement hudud law there?

2015-04-19 12:56

calvintaneng

WELCOME AH MOI, LEIJUN & ALL PEOPLE TO BOOMING ISKANDAR!

This is an incomplete Virtual Tour of The Most Dynamic Region on Planet Earth for the next 50 years!

As you travel down South by Plus North South Highway you must pay a visit to Johor Premium Outlet in Kulai. Avoid Exit 252 into Kulai but move on until you see Exit 253 (Gelang Patah, Tuas Spore). You will save 20 minutes avoiding the traffic jam in congested Kulai. Then Exit at 304 (only a short distance) and proceed to Johor Premium Outlet. Here is the FLAGSHIP E of Iskandar. JPO is so successful that they have builded Phase 2. Phase 3, Hotels & Others will be next. A little further in is Kulai's Industrial Park. Property prices have doubled here since JPO opened.

There are some food courts in JPO. Should take a break & recharge.

The next is to proceed on to Gelang Patah by the same route. As you arrive at Exit 307 take a right turn to SILC (Southern Industrial Logistic Center) Here is A Clean Tech Industrial Hub. Big Player is BioXcell with their Huge Mammoth Building. 3 Storey Shops Called Nusajaya Square Completely Sold Out for Phase One at RM1.3 Millions. Phase 2 Almost all sold at a new high of RM1.9 Millions. Next door RM3 millions green tech factories All Sold on same day launch. And many many factories & 3/4 storey factories built by TN Logis here. South of SILC is a Very Huge Piece of Land being cleared right now.

All these factories & shophouses will provide lots & lots of good jobs. Nearby are the New Housing Enclaves Called Taman Nusa Bayu. You Can Get Brand New 2 Storey Freehold houses with gated & guarded security below R500,000. The size is 20' by 60'. Or wait for the completion of Nusantara Prima next door. 2 storey bigger land size 20' by 70'. Buy now before they become mature. A New Bus Interchange Already Up and Running nearby.

Now the Next Destination is Gerbang Nusajaya (Exit 312)

Here is Ascendas Tech Park (The latest modern cutting Edge Tech Park in the World)
A 4 lane highway already in place. Next to it is the Motorsport City that will make Sepang look like small boy. After that is China Dragon Mart with 3,000 shops till you drop! And Best of All - Bullet Train Station will be HERE!

Ok, if got time turn to Pendas and see Forest City at the Tip. Along the way is PTP Poet (The World's Biggest Port for Containers). There is a 4 lane highway ending near Pulai River (Future Connection to Kukup, Pontain) And Mah Sing's Factories just beside PTP Port.

Now Let's Move on to MEDINI

MEDINI OF ISKANDAR HAS NO BUMI QUOTA & NO PRICE RESTRICTION FOR FOREIGN BUYERS.
THE CENTER OF ECONOMIC GRAVITY WILL SHIFT HERE FROM NUSAJAYA IN NEAR FUTURE!

ON ARRIVAL IN MEDINI YOU ARE GREETED BY EDUCITY ON THE LEFT. LEDANG HEIGHTS ON THE RIGHT. THEN COMES LEGOLAND! LEGO WATER PARK & LEGO HOTEL. BESIDE IS MALL OF MEDINI PHASE ONE (4 MORE PHASES TO COME). ACROSS THE ROAD IS AFFINITI (JV By Temasek & Msian Govt). All Sold in One Day!

Behind is Gleneagle Hospital. Others are THE MERIDIN By Mah Sing & Right Opposite is Sunsuria Commercial Center. And within 10 minutes walk is PINEWOOD Studio (The Hollywood of Asia) Marco Polo filming now on.

As we move further you will notice the Gleaming Projected called I Medini by WCT. And then we arrived at Kota Iskandar (Seat of Johor Govt Admin). Here is Pure, Pristine Puteri Harbour (Hello Kitty Sanrio is here.) There is a CIQ linking to ports of Indonesia. Soon to Spore World Trade Center. All Many Platers are here - including Robert Kuok the Richest Man of Msia.

Phew!

So many things to see.

South is Sunway Lagoon Pendas with 2 upcoming World Class Futuristic Theme Parks. Expect even people from Subang Jaya to bypass Sunway Lagoon Subang to come here in future.

To be continued..

2015-04-19 13:18

r°Moi

Wow... TQVM Calvin

This will be quite a tour man

Take your time to come up with more... I need time to digest too

2015-04-19 14:14

calvintaneng

Sorry for some typo errors

Should read as

PTP Port

Many Property Players in Puteri Harbour - among them is Robert Kuok

NOW FOR ISKANDAR VIRTUAL TOUR PART 2

Leaving Medini you travel by the New Coastal Highway (Note: people of Gelang Patah clapped their hands with glee when New Coastal Highway cut short travel to JB CBD by a mere 15 minutes only. Of course they travel at 110 km per hour. Be careful - the official speed limit is only 70 km per hour.

As you passed LEGOLAND on the left you will notice HORIZON HILLS on the right. Along this stretch is a linear section designated for Commercial Use. Watch out when they open for it for sale.

In no time we are in Taman Perling 2. Take a left turn into Taman Perling 1 - among the Oldest & Most Successful Housing Estates in Nusajaya.
2 Roads encircle Taman Perling - Persisiaran Perling (4 lanes). Jalan Simbang 2 lanes. The Houses in Jalan Undan, Jalan Belibis & Jalan Pucung are located in the Golden Triangle of Taman Perling. Perling Mall is Newly Refurbished. Beside is a Big Plot of Land designated for Commercial - Office - Residential Use. And 3/4 Shops Called Perling Forty Five Now Ready With CF.

Perling is the Most Central Place to Live & Work. It is equidistance between JB Kastam & 2nd Link CIQ. Both 15 minutes away. The Very Best for All Sporeans.

In Perling there are excellent food outlets like Tasixi - selling very fresh dim sum from early morning till noon. And afternoon there are Italian Restaurant, Yew Cafe & Nonya Restaurant in Jalan Simbang. In the evening there is "Restoran Mana Lagi" selling nasi lemak with chicken, pigeon, beef & sotong. It opens after 6 pm and last near 11pm.

OK, now on to JB City by Coastal Highway. In less than 3 minutes you can see Tune Hotel on the Right, then Tropez by Tropicana (Tropicana among the first to build here) Now dwarfed by Greenland further down. And Next to Greenland is the Monster Danga Bay by Country Garden - 9,000 Condos by China Developers. Further down we passed Causeway on the Right & Then?

R&F 33,000 Colossal Units on the Former Custom HQ of Johor. Here is the Prime of the Prime Lands in Iskandar. MRT TRAIN CONNECTION FROM SPORE WILL LAND HERE OR NEARBY. THE CENTER OF ECONOMIC BOOM IN JB DOWNTOWN WILL SHIFT HERE!

Now we turn to EDL Highway. On the Right Is Thomson Medical Center - A JV Between Spore Tycoon Peter Lim who ia also called the "Remisier King" with Johor Sultan.

Then we arrive at Bakar Batu Exit. On the Left is South Key MegaMall - Another Giant Shopping Center in JB City. Now we proceed to Permas Jaya (known as Million Dollar City). Prices of property have doubled or tripled since Permas 2nd Bridge Ready. And looking right of Permas Bridge is the darkish Permas River. Here Greenland from Shanghai just bought lands from Tebrau Teguh for RM426 psf. In those days nobody wanted at RM8 psf. What a Game Changer by China Big Boys!

As we proceed westward into Pasir Gudang we see Senibong Cove. Oh! Boy! It smells last time due to pollution from Perfect Food Factory. Walker from Australia has transformed this polluted swarm to become the most desirable place in Plentong! Wow! Amazing human ingenuity. Now a little further is Tmn Sierra Perdana by Mah Sing on the West & a new bridge built by Crescendo for access road to its land plots near seaside. Crescendo building more condos? Oh no. There's already a big glut. Stop it! Better build more houses,

At the end of Eastern Iskandar is Tanjung Langsat. Greenland is smart to diversify into Industrial properties. They just bought leasehold industrial lands for RM49 psf. And SEE! Sime Darby has a mammoth Industrial Enclave Here. No wonder single storey houses can command a rental of RM1,000 here. In those days only tenanted for RM350 per month.
The BOOM IN ISKANDAR Continues...

To be continued....

2015-04-19 14:22

r°Moi

Read somewhere there have been a drop in the transactions in Iskandar lately...

So get ready.... to be fearfully greedy: Why I buy in bear market...

same same for equity.. same same for property

2015-04-19 14:29

calvintaneng

I am only half way into Iskandar Virtual Tours.

Now some answers

Hsteoh56

A double storey house in Taman Puteri Wangsa is currently worth about RM220,000 to RM250,000. 2 years ago I got one for my investor at RM142K from Johor High Court Auction. It is 22x90 feet long. Only one single bidder.

Yours in Jalan Badik, Jenawi, Keris, Beladau, Kembia or Lading? Better don't sell now. A New Tesco just opened in Tmn Pelangi Indah. Pelangi will be launching the next phase of 2 story houses soon at a new high of RM660,000. There is now a connecting road from Jenawi to Pelangi Indah. I think your house should cross RM500,000 easily when Spore-JB MRT Is Ready.

Leijun,

Yes! There is a glut in High End Condos now. But should be OK Once Spore-JB MRT ready. Many Singaporeans like the convenience of Condo living. But for Capital Go For Landed Properties only.

Official Govt Dept off days are friday & saturday. Banking hours are as usual. So not much changes. No hudud here. Johor Sultan is highly intelligent. I don't think he favours hudud.

Ah Moi

Drop in High End Condo sales only. All 2 storey houses by UMLand Imperial Jade below RM500K all sold out. If you can get landed property on weakness. Why not?
There are not enough as most developers want to build highrise for maximum profits.

Twice KSeng built single storey houses for sale in Tmn Daya.

1st Round was RM283,000 per unit. People queued 6 days 6 nights outside Keck Seng Office in Taman Daya. All Sold on same day launch.

2nd Round price raised to over RM380,000 per unit. Long long queue & all sold within short time.

There is a pent up demand for all landed property at reasonable prices in Iskandar.

2015-04-19 15:05

LeiJun

CalvinTanEng, a big thank you for your detailed explanation! Got map? Hehehhh...Are you a real estate agent?

More Qs-Whats the high end and mid range condo price like? Can give price range & developer? Ppl buy for own stay or to rent out? What about target market there? A lot of Chinese fr mainland China bought oso, how true?

2015-04-19 15:24

duncan2

hi calvin, thanks for you jb property infor. I will be moving to jb soon for business purposes too as KL market was relatively slow and stagnant for small biz player like me therefore am looking for new customer base and market in JB which also back by singapore customers as their spending power much higher their currency 2.7+ now.
Talking about property in jb i am renting a cluster house at desa tebrau, the owner bought it 2 years ago for only rm700k and now same house selling about 1.3 million really good return indeed. So i am wondering is there any new landed house available in jb not older than 5 years old and driving less than 15 minutes to CIQ? kindly advise. thank you!

2015-04-19 18:43

calvintaneng

Leijun

Mahsing is selling middle range condo in sierra perdana at rm300 to rm400 psf (lower range) In Tmn Molek I think they are selling around Rm700 psf mid range. Many Japanese are here. And high end around Rm1,000 psf in Danga Bay Area. Better don't buy any if you are thinking of investment. For own stay Ok. I heard Lots of Chinese buyer in Danga Bay by Country Garden. I don't think it is wise even to buy for rental purpose as there is a glut soon.

Duncan2

Welcome to Iskandar.

Desa Tebrau is a popular place. Ikano has bought a piece of land from Plenitude. One day Ikea should be here. Prices expected to rise another 10% to 15% here.

Try to get cheaper from auction. Adda Heights, Bandar Dato Onn, Taman Gaya, Setia Indah would be ideal.

2015-04-19 19:26

duncan2

hi calvin

Auction quite complicated for me. Do u come across any new launching landed property lately or going to launch in this year or next year as i won't be buying so soon but just to get more information and survey properly before getting one for myself. Setia indah is it beside the high way? is the location too far from town? what do you think if compare to nusajya area?

2015-04-19 19:32

calvintaneng

Duncan2

Setia Indah is only 5 minutes located next to Mt Austin and Desa Tebrau. About 5 minutes to highway near Aeon Tebrau City.

If you are thinking of Nusajaya Denia has a few bumi released lots for sale. Reina 2 storey 24x70 Superlink going for Rm499,888, real value for money. Cf should be out early next year. Or further up in Tmn Pelangi Indah 2 storey 24x70 will be launch soon at Rm660,000

2015-04-19 19:38

r°Moi

6 hours indeed not enough... JPO would have taken 3 hours liao ; )



Johor Premium Outlet in Kulai.

SILC (Southern Industrial Logistic Center) Nusajaya Square A New Bus Interchange Already Up and Running nearby.

Gerbang Nusajaya (Exit 312)

Ascendas Tech Park (The latest modern cutting Edge Tech Park in the World)
A 4 lane highway already in place.

Motorsport City that will make Sepang look like small boy.

China Dragon Mart with 3,000 shops till you drop! Bullet Train Station will be HERE!

Pendas and see Forest City at the Tip.

Along the way is PTP Port (The World's Biggest Port for Containers).

MEDINI

MEDINI OF ISKANDAR HAS NO BUMI QUOTA & NO PRICE RESTRICTION FOR FOREIGN BUYERS.

THE CENTER OF ECONOMIC GRAVITY WILL SHIFT HERE FROM NUSAJAYA IN NEAR FUTURE!

EDUCITY ON THE LEFT.

LEGOLAND! LEGO WATER PARK & LEGO HOTEL. MALL OF MEDINI

THE MERIDIN By Mah Sing & Right Opposite is Sunsuria Commercial Center.
PINEWOOD Studio (The Hollywood of Asia)

Kota Iskandar (Seat of Johor Govt Admin).

Puteri Harbour (Hello Kitty Sanrio is here.) There is a CIQ linking to ports of Indonesia. Soon to Spore World Trade Center. All Many Platers are here - including Robert Kuok the Richest Man of Msia.

Sunway Lagoon Pendas with 2 upcoming World Class Futuristic Theme Parks.

2015-04-19 19:51

LeiJun

CalvinTanEng, thank you for your advice. Will save your write up for serious reading.

2015-04-19 20:00

hsteoh56

thank you, Mr. Calvin Tan.

2015-04-19 20:51

r°Moi

And.... more to go... Johor is really on to something big...

2015-04-19 20:51

tony89

calvin, you are good in everything you do, even in giving direction!!

2015-04-20 02:28

duncan2

thanks calvin, wow it takes some time for me to digest! :)

anyway if u come across any good landed property launching, remember to post it here share to all bro and sis here. Now even kl property are slowing down some condo or apartment even got offer 3-4% discount on the downpayment. Possible to get discount for jb property?

2015-04-21 09:37

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