２０１５年，AirAsia長期債10,235,579.000。 分別是： Term loans 8,893,565.000，利息4.21%（2014年3.95%） Finance lease liabilities (Ijarah) 783,699.000，利息6.12% （2014年5.60%） Commodity Murabahah Finance 558,315.000，利息5.64% （2014年4.62%） 而Revolving credit 的利息成本從2014年的2.22 %漲到2.55 %。 這些債務８５％以美元結算。其他是歐元和新元。 請你們注意，這些利息很低，很明顯是AirAsia在認為西方國家大ＱＥ時，不顧匯率以及物極必反的風險，在這時候認為利息低，而快快去大借特借。 我們要問一問，以AirAsia的現金狀況，需要多少年來還清？ 沒有２０－３０年，是不可能還清的（前提是不能再買飛機）。 現實中，AirAsia第1年要還2,377,256.000，第2-5年要還5,924,452.000。它根本無力支付，只能繼續Revolving credit ，以債養債。 但 以債養債的前提，是利息成本必須不斷下降。 可當前利息幾乎是不可能再降了，而且2015年的；利息成本已經全面提高了。 一般的經濟週期，利息最少會從低點調高３％。 AirAsia的利息成本就會從現在７億漲上過９億。 可惜，利息只增加３％只是在一般情況，未來的利息絕對會超過１０％，甚至更高。 因為AirAsia大部分借款是Fixed Rate，所以估計最高不會超過１０％，以１０％計算大約有11.4億。 因為AirAsia的現金狀況沒有能力儘快還清債務，所以它不可避免要以債養債繼續Revolving credit，使得債務和利息越滾越大。 然後，我們就會看以債養債此路已經行不通了。所以就開始大量增發股票，變賣資產。其實，這現象已經開始出現了！ 這就是AirAsia過度金融槓桿，資本錯誤配置必然產生的惡果。 以上還沒有計算匯率等難以預測的因素。也沒有計算AirAsia業務萎縮的問題。
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[转贴] 為何AirAsia會爆發債務危機？ - 朱冠華
2016年6月2日 星期四
http://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2016/06/airasia_70.html
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 15 of 15 comments
this fellow act like calvin tan.know nothing about finance and business.but try to act like he is expert.
2016-06-03 23:50
Look like you guys are expert in finance and business, pls write something
to counterattack this fellow :)
2016-06-04 09:12
yongch,if you think he is sohai!!.try to put up your own article,let see who is real sohai!!
2016-06-04 09:15
Koon Bee, we are waiting your article, don't comment here only, counterattack him.
2016-06-04 09:19
T.F. 认为 对的 我 就认为是 对的。
道理 简单, T.F. 加码 了 ; 他比我们 更 care
短期 而言, A.A. 梦工厂 是
目前 最强的 大资股。
(As long no selling from Substantial Shareholders , AA. Is a safe investment)
2016-06-04 10:10
T.F. 认为 对的 我 就认为是 对的。
道理 简单, T.F. 加码 了 ; 他比我们 更 care
短期 而言, A.A. 梦工厂 是
目前 最强的 大资股。
(As long no selling from Substantial Shareholders , AA. Is a safe investment)
2016-06-04 10:12
The funny part is, the article was written half true half false, the comments here also half know half don't know. Sama sama.
2016-06-04 17:35
TF揸重貨冇得返轉頭，很多人還是有選擇的。
我一直都認為TF在搞航空方面是不錯的,你讓他搞金融，可以搞垮幾間銀行。
老朱，一句「資本錯配」，妙！
2016-06-10 00:52
You cant see airasia as a normal company!
It is the growth story of whole asia lcc flights!!! The industry is booming iw where all south east asia middle class groeing! Vietnsm, burmese, indon, etc. Coupled with more matured china, taiwan, hongkong, japan, they will be next big things!
2016-06-10 00:59
They airplanes is naturally a hedge against any debts! Sell planes or sales and lease back with solve most issues! Go see how many planes they have, sell all can get how much, assume depreciation 5 yrs lah.
2016-06-10 01:01
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Wow, non stop attacking, interesting
2016-06-03 23:42