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What makes you think you know better than OldTown Management - hongwei85

Tan KW
Publish date: Sun, 14 May 2017, 01:02 PM
Tan KW
0 470,230
Good.

Sunday, May 14, 2017 

 
 
 
OldTown share price hit historical high recently to RM3.11

But Management was busying selling company treasury shares until zero position. So who is right?
What makes public feel that they know better than management? Which next quarter will have a good result?

Picture: It shows management is selling agreesive to reduce their treasury shares, while share price keep moving upward
 
On last quarter, 4QY16, good result is contributed by foreign gain and less activity on material purchase. Which impossible to repeat all the time. If exclude these two factors earning, then current PE is standing around 30! As shown in below picture.
 
If you have a position in OldTown. you shall take the chance the readjust your holding position.

http://hongwei85.blogspot.my/2017/05/what-makes-you-think-you-know-better.html

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Be the first to like this. Showing 14 of 14 comments

RainT

Less purchases material activity will not mean not good

Maybe in priori quarter management bought in many materials due to lower prices and recent quarter buy less

2017-05-14 14:37

Alex

But Management was busying selling company treasury shares until zero position. So who is right?

Sell tresury shares means that the company thinks that the share price is higher, and it's a good bargain to sell into strength.

in short, it means too expensive now lar~

sell sell sell~ haha

2017-05-14 15:40

Alex

but leh, you see ah, revenue increase wor

somemore fundamentally speaking, china ppl like oldtown wor

market expansion no play play oh

so leh, price increase lar~

buy buy buy~

2017-05-14 15:42

cruger12345

Selling treasury share could be a sign the management is planning for an bonus issue. Treasury share is not entitle for bonus issue. So why not selling now to book a profit than looking at a paper loss after bonus issue ? So don't draw conclusion blindly

2017-05-14 15:57

limhh

Good observation from the author.

2017-05-14 16:46

Flintstones

Good observation! This counter got many sifu sifus inside wor!

2017-05-14 17:56

xying

hahahahhaha...laugh die ppl liao wei... selling treasury share meaning the company having prob? okie let me ask 1 question, why all treasury sold but the share price keep going UP? who is the buyer? why these people need to buy Old Town with higher share price? Bro think out of box pls..

2017-05-14 22:47

stockmanmy

I really like this kind of postings.

and good timing too.

2017-05-14 22:55

moneySIFU

On point No.1, It is not wrong to make any assumption when company is buying or selling its treasury shares, but buying or selling treasury shares does not mean the company is good or bad.

Author thinks it's time to sell when company has sold its treasury shares, my question is: what about if the company is buying its own shares? Time to follow & buy?

Nope, no one will buy just because the company is doing so. There are more important factors investors will consider before making decision:

The prospect, price & value of the company/business

2017-05-14 23:41

moneySIFU

Point 2, it is totally misleading to state PE ratio of 30, the historical PE ratio exclude forex gain should be 22.6 times

http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl2510_profit_to_shareholder_ex_forex.jpg

2017-05-14 23:42

moneySIFU

It may be worth to take a look at the following if you think the PE is too high:

http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl2510_old_town_vs_others.jpg

Please take note that some companies in the above are also enjoying forex gains

2017-05-14 23:51

blackspy

Don't forget to exclude less activity of material purchase as well as mentioned by the Author. So is around PE30

2017-05-14 23:54

moneySIFU

On point 3, I am not sure why the company reduced its spending on "Purchase of trading merchandise, food, beverages and consumables".

May be the Company changed its strategy not to spend so much on the free goodies but spend somewhere else OR the company gets cheaper supplies of these items, so spend less?

But author never gave his assumption but assume this was something not supposed to happen & it will back to where it was.

So make your judgement.

Again, it may be worth to take a look on the following:
http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl2510_profit_margin_on_oldtown.jpg

2017-05-15 00:15

Flintstones

What a legendary post!!! hongwwi85, i hv decided to follow your blog. I think i shud call u sifu man! Some sifu is so blur tat he dunno wat he is doing but u r my sifu!

2017-05-25 20:21

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