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[转贴] JTIASA (4383) 底部复苏，油棕种植业务未来2年【守】出春天！ - Harryt30
Friday, June 16, 2017
此外，JTIASA在FY17前9个月有55.6%的营业额以及96.6%的Profit Before Tax来自油棕业， 主要是因为Wood Processing处于亏损的状态。现在的CPO的价格处于下滑的趋势当中，这肯定会影响种植股的Profit Margin。不过笔者询问了几位种植油棕的老前辈，他们都说只要棕油价格保持在RM2,500以上，对种植业就不错了。
JTIASA最新季度的盈利是5年的新高，营业额也是最近5个季度的巅峰。不过油棕果实的高峰生产期是未来的6个月，这意味着JTIASA未来两个季度还是可以保持高速的增长。而且16Q4 – 17Q1的Net Profit都低于RM20 mil， JTIASA要超越并不难。
JTIASA的盈利已经处于5年的新高，但是股价却比今年巅峰的RM1.46下滑到5月16的1.09, 这是不是机会呢？？JTIASA的股价最近从底部反弹了接近10%，有可能是市场看到JTIASA油棕业务未来今年的潜力。
总结：
Q1 – 产量巅峰期
Q2 – 产量走低
Q3 – 产量复苏
Q4 – 产量走高
Q3以往的业绩都是很差的，今年在棕油价格走高以及产量增加下，JTIASA的Q3达到了5年新高的单季盈利。而且Q4的产量会持续攀升，Q1的产量会来到巅峰。
整体上，笔者看好JTIASA的油棕业务会在FY2018 ( 2017年7月 – 2018年6月)表现得更为出色。以乐观的角度分析，笔者预计JTIASA的树龄不断成熟的情况下，FY2018的全年盈利有望走高10 – 15%。
风险：
- 油棕价格走低导致Profit Margin下滑
- Timber的业务可能亏损并拉整体的盈利
- 盈利业绩偶尔缺乏稳定性，偶尔盈利会突然下滑。
这是一家【慢热】型的公司，而且种植领域并不是大家都喜欢的一个板块，因此没有耐心以及希望快速获得回报的股友，大家要三思。
Harryt30
13.15p.m.
2017.06.16
http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2017/06/1402-jtiasa-4383-2.html
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 12 of 12 comments
You would know better of Jtiasa if you make a comparison with its closest peer TAAN. There are many better run plantation players offering high growth in FFB production ie SOP, Umecca, Inno.....
2017-06-16 16:19
You are right jtiasa is a good stock 1.50 is coming on the way. Coming quarte will be good for jtiasa since good season for timber logging and ffb harvesting and yield.
2017-06-16 17:33
April and May, 2017, CPO average price at Rm2754 and Rm2804 respectively. If CPO for June.2017 will be about Rm2650. Then average price for the 4th quarter is Rm2736. The revenue from the palm oil will be about Rm172 millions and profit before tax will be in exceed of Rm55 millions.
2017-06-16 19:01
The best things to the company is no more expenses on new planting, no more palm mill and no more capital expenses for logging. All money made and from depreciation
will pare down the company debt or pay higher dividend.
2017-06-16 19:06
Soy price
Rm currency
Climate
Labourers cost
Fertiliser
Palm oil has to many element to be on its odd for at least 1.5 hold years, to start getting most investors to come in.
2017-06-16 19:41
Jtiasa 大马最大的木材商,棕油是副业.不能跟其他纯棕油公司相提并论.唯一可以比较就是产量(yield). 之前Aminvest 分析员Thomas Soo, Sarawak同乡大力推荐Jtiasa 在1.80 股价,但是股价
一直南下到1.50.问题就是出现在12% yield. 同业平均是20%.公司盈利怎样会好呢?股价又怎能北上呢?同样是棕油为副业的TAAN,最新季度财务報告,棕油业已经贡献60%盈利. TAAN 种植园地40K公顷. Jtiasa 69K公顷.如今Jtiasa已经改善到18%. 最新季度财务報告也大力跟进. 然而股价却相对在低档.有买过MKH就会明白,当副业开始有贡献,股价马上翻一番. 从技术面看, 平均10天周线第一次站上.胡立阳说投机股票要买在周线上.不久之前Jtiasa股价还低过冷眼推荐.我就开玩笑对朋友说,家里沒有棕油园,不如买Jtiasa 当棕油园.不要忘了,树龄都少过8年,产量要进入高产巅峰期. 顺便提醒在价高市危环境现状,不如买低档【慢热】型的公司,尤其是种植领域比较安心......
2017-06-17 11:37
At this very moment, personally still feel pure plantation play is much better bargain than Jtiasa and Taann. Like some said here. plenty more great choice out there, ie. SOP, Umcca, Bkawan , utdplant etc...
2017-06-17 12:23
It seems log production of Jtiasa for 2nd Qtr 17 would be much lesser than 1st Qtr 17. Not sure how it would impact its financial performance.
2017-06-17 12:57
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整体来说是不错的文章，可惜的是没有分析油棕价格对公司的直接影响，终究还是有失偏颇
2017-06-16 15:47