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[转贴] 股息股筛选标准 - 蛤蜊先生
2020年1月15日星期三
之前写的《财务自由是一个计划》，里头写到创建一个稳定产生被动收入的资产组合，透过复利的力量累积财富，最终财务自由。
里头也写道，寻找股息率佳的资产，透过时间慢慢累积丰厚的现金流。
那么我们该如何筛选股息好的公司？是否股息率高就是好？
这里以PTRANS作为例子，没有买卖建议，只是充作参考用途。
第一，股息率高于定存，高于4%为佳。
在大马，随着国行降息，很多银行给的定期存款利率已低于4%，因此蛤蜊认为只要投资的公司，股息率高于4%，都是不错的选择。
而以PTRANS为例子，公司在2019财年股息派发0.01sen，以股价0.225计算，股息率介于4.5%左右，符合标准。
第二，公司派发合理的股息。
何谓合理，这因人而异。但对蛤蜊而言，占盈利20-30%左右就已经很不错了，因为公司可以将其余盈利充作资本开销，发展壮大公司。
PTRANS全年EPS预估2.56，股息0.01，股息占盈利40%左右。
第三，股息成长。
这里我们不用EPS做计算，因为PTRANS的票数有逐年增加，稀释了EPS，所以用派出的数额计算，就能看出公司股息是否有成长。
2019财年派出14.22m
2018财年派出12.42m
2017财年派出8.29m
2016财年派出4.01m
可以看到，PTRANS三年股息复合成长率（CAGR）达37.23%，如果你是早期买入PTRANS的投资者，意味着这些年，你以每年37.23%的幅度加薪，我想打工加薪都没这么多吧。
第四，公司是否会成长？
有些公司股息派发丰厚，但营业额和净利均无法成长，这类公司蛤蜊会选择排除在外。因为长期下来，就算股息派发丰厚，但随着盈利下滑或无法成长，股息也会随之大打折扣。
PTRANS是小型成长股，公司成长催化剂是即将全面投入营运的KAMPAR车站，该车站比MERU JAYA车站大8倍，因此新车站的投入营运，将加大广告收入，届时随着盈利大幅度增长，股息也会随之增加。同时KAMPAR 车站底层已90%出租，成长确定性极高。
总结：有时候买股息股，不代表单纯为了股息，也可以是双赢，赚股息和资本增值，双管齐下。就像当年买PADINI，CARLSBERG，HEIN 这些股息率高于5%的公司，股价也一样迎来暴涨，因此别被股息派就是为了股息给蒙蔽了。
发帖者 蛤蜊先生 时间： 下午10:17:00
http://andersonleee0590.blogspot.com/2020/01/blog-post_15.html
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments
Agreed with Larrytrader, this counter is not as good as the author described.
Time will tell.
2020-01-16 18:54
Dont really agree with item 3 on Dividend growth calculation. Dividend per share as well as payout ratio are equally important measures other than total dividend paid.
Company can increase total dividend by increasing payout ratio without profit growth.
Similarly, total dividend paid can go up but dividend per share keep dropping due to private placement or rights issues.
Total dividend alone is not enough to measure real dividend growth.
2020-01-18 10:06
For dividend stock, I prefer to mid/large cap stocks with stable/monopoly business rather than this type of penny stock. Anyway, it is a good stock.
2020-01-18 11:44
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Larrytrader
除非我的情报有误，不然关于你的第四项成长的内容是极不符合事实的，Ptrans成长没你描述的那么厉害。如果有人也在研究这间公司，可以发表看法大家讨论看，谢谢。
2020-01-16 18:47