BEIJING : This Friday (March 10), Chinese President Xi Jinping will almost certainly secure an unprecedented third five-year term when Parliament meets to elect the top state positions.

A little less certain is who will be vice-president.

Most pundits have their money on outgoing Executive Vice-Premier Han Zheng, who retired from the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee - the pinnacle of power in China - last October.

He filed into the Great Hall of the People with Mr Xi and other leaders during the opening of the 2023 National People’s Congress, ranked ahead of outgoing Vice-President Wang Qishan - a sign he is likely to succeed Wang.

However, Xi has shown himself to be anything but predictable.

And so a dark horse could emerge.

If Xi, who turns 70 in June, has his sights on grooming a successor in this coming term - as some believe he might - the job of vice-president could go to sixth-ranked Standing Committee member Ding Xuexiang instead.

“Ding Xuexiang is a dark horse to become vice-president,” a party insider who was not privy to the final decision told The Straits Times, requesting anonymity because personnel changes in China are shrouded in secrecy.

In China, the vice-presidency is largely ceremonial with no substantive powers. But the vice-president will succeed the president should the latter resign, become debilitated or die in office.

More importantly, the role is viewed as a potential stepping stone to the top position.

That was the case for Xi and his predecessor Hu Jintao. Before taking over as China’s paramount leaders, both were concurrently Standing Committee members and vice-presidents.

The Standing Committee position provided them experience in running the country from the very top of the leadership hierarchy, while vice-presidency gave them exposure to foreign affairs and meeting foreign dignitaries.

At age 60, Ding is the youngest of the seven Standing Committee members and the only one born in the 1960s. He was newly appointed to the Standing Committee at last October’s twice-a-decade party congress. Expectations then were that he would be made executive vice-premier or first vice-premier.

But should he become vice-president, it would be a sign that he could be Xi’s heir apparent despite his lack of experience in running a province. Given his relative youth, Ding could still be groomed to eventually take over Xi, even if he is only made executive vice-premier this time.

“Ding Xuexiang is familiar with Xi’s thinking,” said the insider, who pointed out how Ding, who was Xi’s chief of staff, had accompanied Xi on all of his overseas and out-of-town trips during his five-year tenure as director of the Communist Party’s General Office.

But if Xi is not ready to signal a choice of a successor, the placeholder candidate for the vice-president role could be Mr Han.

At 68, he is considered relatively old for the five-year job, but he is one of the most cosmopolitan senior leaders and has extensive experience dealing with foreigners, having been Shanghai’s youngest mayor in five decades when he took the job at the age of 48 in 2003.

He then served as party secretary of China’s financial capital from 2012 until he was appointed executive vice-premier in 2018.

There is another dark horse who could become vice-president: Chen Xi, 69, the party’s incumbent head of the Organisation Department in charge of personnel and, until the 2022 congress, a Politburo member.

Chen, who was friends with Xi during their student days at Tsinghua University, spent the past five years identifying and grooming up-and-coming cadres.

Two of the Organisation Department’s four previous chiefs went on to become vice-presidents - Zeng Qinghong in 2003 and Li Yuanchao in 2013.

All four of Chen’s predecessors were promoted to the Standing Committee, but he did not make it due to age limits. Giving him the vice-presidency would be a consolation prize.

But he is the least likely of the trio to make it.

The popular belief is that Han will become the next vice-president. If so, Xi would be repeating what he did with Wang five years ago by giving the job to someone he trusts and has been in the inner sanctum of power before.

But if Ding were to be named vice-president, it will become clear whom Xi wants his successor to be.

  - ANN