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Investors split over Prabowo nephew’s job at finance ministry

Tan KW
Publish date: Sat, 20 Jul 2024, 12:41 AM
Tan KW
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News that incoming Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is tapping his nephew for a top job at the finance ministry has some questioning whether the Southeast Asia’s largest economy is shifting away from its fiscal discipline.

Some investors say financial markets will reserve their judgement until they see what policies US-educated Thomas Djiwandono introduces, while others say the announcement may lead to temporary declines in Indonesian assets that could provide a buying opportunity.

“A promise not to raise the debt ratio or the budget deficit could be viewed as positive,” said Hyung Kim, portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC. “But whether the promise will be kept remains to be seen.”

Here’s what some other analysts and investors said:

The decision “is likely being viewed cautiously by markets. While it’s difficult to predict specific policies the deputy finance minister will adopt, his recent and past comments indicate a preference to maintain fiscal discipline.”

“Indonesia risks adding to capital flight, and having to increase real interest rates to attract foreign investors, while at the same time, giving credit-rating agencies more reason to turn cautious or even negative on the outlook.”

“We will be monitoring the developments closely, particularly the time horizon over which debt level is expected to increase to 50%.” One of the highest debt servicing-to-revenue ratios in the region “is why the market (us included) have felt some concern on a potential breach of the legislated fiscal spending cap of 3% of GDP.”

“Communication from Indonesia has been less than optimal lately, and the recent developments call for more attention. However, we do prefer to look more at what policy will be, than the messaging. And there we remain positive, given an improving inflation background and a capable central bank.”

“It is possible that Indonesian markets could underperform if the country departs from its prudent policy stance. For this to happen, I think we need to see actual policy changes getting implemented.”

“Currently Indonesia runs an approximately 0.5% of GDP primary surplus with a debt-to-GDP ratio of below 40% so there is a long way to go before the market starts to get really worried. The country is growing well, with an almost balanced current account, so political headlines, whilst always good for some volatility, have a tendency to get faded.”

“I’m not worried about the outlook for Indonesia and it’s political situation. From a price standpoint, I don’t think there has been that much uncertainty priced into Indonesian bonds. Actions speaks louder than words so we need to make sure there is consistency. Time will tell.”

“It’s a headline that can create temporary volatility,” he said of the appointment. “It might actually just create a window to enter and benefit from the more important trends” 


  - Bloomberg

 

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