Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is heading to China for the first time since abandoning the Asian nation’s flagship investment pact, as she seeks to stabilise ties with Beijing ahead of a volatile US election.

Meloni, whose government has worked more closely with China than others in Europe, will land Saturday for a trip that will see her meet President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. Her visit comes as Europe braces for a November change in US president that could upend Washington’s diplomatic and trade ties with the bloc.

The Italian leader views Xi as someone who could become an important stakeholder in the Ukraine war if Washington were to pull support, as Republican candidate Donald Trump has threatened, according to people familiar with her thinking.  

Since coming to power in 2022, Meloni has sought to pitch herself as a diplomat able to speak to leaders across the ideological spectrum, from Hungary’s Viktor Orban to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Her ambitions have grown to include Xi in that group, said one of the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Meloni will need to balance that goal with the EU’s tougher stance on trade toward Beijing, as well as tensions over Xi’s support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. The Italian leader is expected to bring up Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict during her talks with Chinese leaders, another official said.

“We all know there is divergence between the EU and Nato and China on many dossiers,” said Giangiacomo Calovini, a member of parliament for Meloni’s party on the foreign affairs committee. “But in moments of high geopolitical tension such as this, it’s better to have more dialogue than less.”

The EU has toughened its stance toward China - sometimes at the prodding of President Joe Biden, who has urged American partners to oppose Chinese overcapacity and cut Beijing off from high-tech chips. With Donald Trump now leading polls in the US election, the EU will need to decide how to align itself between the world’s two largest economies.

While the Republican candidate is threatening 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods if he returns to the White House, he’s also planning a potential litany of actions against the EU, which could include a broad minimum 10% tariff. That gives China’s leaders an opening to restore Europe as a buffer between Beijing and Washington, as the EU tries to avoid escalating trade tensions on two fronts.

“Europe fears a Trump 2.0 means the EU will further lose its competitive edge and jobs as Trump focuses on luring businesses to the US,” said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “That will complicate EU trade restrictions with China.”

The Italian prime minister’s trip comes after Rome delivered a major snub to Beijing last year, when Meloni quit Xi’s Belt and Road infrastructure investment initiative. Italy became the sole Group of Seven nation to join under a previous government, and Meloni pledged to Biden she would exit it.

The Italian leader’s visit to China demonstrates that her decision was due to “huge pressure” from the US, Zhao Junjie, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of European Studies, told the state-run Global Times newspaper.

Meloni’s outreach can demonstrate to other European nations that the benefits of enhancing cooperation with China “outweigh the disadvantages of decoupling from it”, Zhao added. The EU has repeatedly said it doesn’t intend to decouple from Beijing, but wants to reduce the risks associated with current supply and trade dependencies.  

Electric vehicles (EVs) are also likely to be on the agenda, after the EU moved forward to impose provisional tariffs on EVs made in China that would raise rates to as high as 48%. An EU investigation found that Beijing subsidises its EV industry to a degree that causes economic harm to the bloc’s carmakers.

China has threatened to retaliate if the EU moves ahead with the levies, warning that it could target agricultural goods, the aviation sector and cars with large engines. It has already launched a targeted anti-dumping probe into pork imports, and the findings of an investigation into EU spirits are due early next year.

“Meloni’s visit is a step in a good direction,” said Michele Geraci, former undersecretary of state at the Italian Ministry of Economic Development. “But the substance is that it’s not going to change the reality.”

  - Bloomberg