Defiant members of a disbanded Thai opposition party pledged to form a new outfit to challenge the conservative establishment’s grip on power, setting the stage for more political turmoil in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.

The new party - set to be unveiled on Friday - will fight every election until it’s able to “break the cycle” of dissolution of political parties viewed as a threat to the pro-royalist establishment, to achieve true democracy in Thailand, said Pita Limjaroenrat, who is among about a dozen executives of Move Forward Party banned by the court from politics for 10 years.

“I understand that you’re disappointed, angry, or sad,” Pita told hundreds of supporters gathered at the party office in Bangkok late on Wednesday after the court decision. “We won’t let the anger consume us. We will carry it with us and let it explode at the polling stations in every single election from now.”

In a widely anticipated ruling, Thailand’s Constitutional Court disbanded Move Forward on grounds its poll promise to amend the controversial lese majeste law, which shields the Thai royal family from criticism, had violated election rules. That brought curtains on a party that had rattled the country’s military-backed conservative groups by winning the most number of parliamentary seats in the general election last year and mounted a serious bid to form the government.

But a series of legal challenges were lodged to thwart the Harvard-educated Pita’s bid to become prime minister. The conservatives then joined hands with Pheu Thai Party, backed by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s family, to counter the rise of the reformist party. The deal saw Thaksin, who fled Thailand in 2008 to avoid corruption charges, return home, and his ally Srettha Thavisin being selected as the head of a coalition that included parties backed by former coup leaders.

Less than a year into the deal, the fate of the former property mogul Srettha hangs in the balance with the same charter court set to rule next week on a petition seeking to oust him for an alleged ethical breach. The court cases, along with a lese majeste indictment of Thaksin, have rattled Thai financial markets with foreign funds pulling out more than US$3 billion from the nation’s stocks this year, among the world’s performers in the past 12 months.

“In the near term, there’ll be nothing but turmoil,” said Mark S Cogan, an associate professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Kansai Gaidai University in Osaka. “It will take a few years for the progressive movement to re-tool. This gives the conservatives time to think, strategise, and mobilise.”

The US said the court’s move to disband Move Forward and ban its leaders was “deeply concerning”, and a group of Southeast Asian parliamentarians said the dissolution was an assault on democracy.

With Move Forward bidding to widen its influence under a new name, the conservatives probably erred in pushing for its ban, according to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a deputy dean of Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law.

“The conservatives’ decision reflects how it’s constantly paranoid about Move Forward, every second of every day, and the way to cope with that is to eliminate it from sight,” Olarn said. “Instead, this is going to give new reasons for people to support and sympathise with Move Forward, helping to boost the movement’s popularity.”

Srettha’s struggles to tackle a near-record household debt, high cost of living amid a tepid outlook for the economy helped Move Forward remain as the most popular political party in recent surveys. The party’s promise to spread economic activity beyond the capital city Bangkok, dismantle business monopolies and reduce the influence of elites had resonated with the youth and urban population.

And the new party will carry forward the same reform platform, said Sirikanya Tansakun, who’s tipped to be the new group’s leader. The new group will discuss how to deal with its pledge to amend the royal insult law in the wake of the court rulings, she said.

While Move Forward has denied the charge that it sought to undermine the monarchy, it questioned the ruling, saying it sets a “dangerous precedent” and risks damaging democratic principles.

The ultra-royalist Thai Pakdee Party said Move Forward’s defiance signalled a rejection of the rule of law and urged the poll agency to probe the behaviour of lawmakers and members of the new party being floated.

Under Thai election rules, more than 140 Move Forward lawmakers in the 500-member House of Representatives, must now move to a new party within 60 days to keep their seats.

Thailand’s charter court has dissolved dozens of political parties and banned hundreds of politicians in the past two decades for minor and major breaches of electoral rules, according to local media.

The new group could run into fresh legal troubles soon. Wednesday’s ruling may accelerate a probe by the National Anti-Corruption Commission that could result in a lifetime political ban on about 40 lawmakers who had signed a draft bill to amend the lese majeste law in early 2021.

The dissolution is a full circle for Move Forward, which replaced its predecessor Future Forward when it was dissolved by the same court for breaching election rules for financing in 2020. Its key leaders were also barred from politics for a decade. The ruling then sparked an unprecedented youth-led protest movement that called for the resignation of the then military-backed prime minister and reforms of the monarchy.

Cogan said he expected the disbandment to fan the flame of anger in Move Forward’s supporters but their attempts to change Thailand will be a “Sisyphean task.”

“Whatever entity comes forward out of this, there’s nothing to prevent a third dissolution,” Cogan said, “This is akin to Sisyphus pushing the rock up the hill, and falling back down again.” 

  - Bloomberg