Asian stocks were poised for a mixed open on Monday as traders shifted focus to key US data prints this week after a volatile start to August. 

Equity futures in Australia pointed to early gains, while those in Hong Kong were moderately lower. Markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday. Contracts for US equities slipped in early Asian trading after the S&P 500 climbed 0.5% on Friday. The dollar rose and yen weakened.

A semblance of calm is returning after markets were ravaged early last week from fears the Federal Reserve would make quick, sharp rate cuts to stave off a deep recession. The yen surged as traders slashed bearish bets following the Bank of Japan’s rate hike before ending last week little changed. The Cboe Volatility Index - Wall Street’s fear gauge - has about halved since jumping to its highest since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

But with traders focused on the chance of a US recession amid a global growth slowdown, markets will be sensitive to data that shows weakness in consumer prices, producer prices and retail sales expected later this week, said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “The market is still on edge and would look to reengage with recession trades, with cries that the Fed are ‘behind the curve’ if the data shows further softening.” 

A tumultuous week for global bond markets headed toward calm on Friday as angst over the potential US economic downturn - which spurred a Treasury rally and brief market meltdown - faded. Treasuries are closed for trading in Asia on Monday due to the holiday in Japan.

The US consumer price index on Wednesday is expected to have risen 0.2% from June for both the headline figure and the so-called core gauge that excludes food and energy. The modest moves, however, may not enough to derail the Fed from a widely anticipated interest-rate cut next month.

At the weekend, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she still sees upside risks for inflation and continued strength in the labor market, signaling she may not be ready to support an interest-rate decrease when US central bankers next meet in September. Money markets have fully priced a rate cut in September and about 100 basis points of easing for the year, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.  

“If you kind of forget the noise early in the week, this seems like the right place to settle in,” Bryan Whalen, chief investment officer and a generalist portfolio manager at TCW Group, said on Bloomberg Radio. “It’s a nervous market.” 

Elsewhere in Asia, traders will be focused on China’s one-year medium term lending rate as well as retail sales and industrial production data this week to gauge whether the nation’s economy is finding traction.   

In commodities, oil edged lower Monday following its 4.5% gain last week. Some of the top US oil refiners are throttling back operations at their facilities this quarter, adding to concerns that a global glut of crude is forming. Gold was little changed.

  - Bloomberg