NEW YORK: All eyes will turn to the mountains of Wyoming in this week for the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, your best chance every year to see a Nobel Prize-winning economist in a cowboy hat.

The highlight will come Friday, when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks about the economic outlook in a keynote address in the morning.

With the US central bank approaching a crucial pivot point, it’s difficult to overstate how much attention financial markets will be paying.

For starters, they’re looking for confirmation the Fed will lower rates in September.

But more drama surrounds what happens after that and the pace of additional cuts over the next several months as the Fed confronts the dual risks to both inflation and employment.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey will also make and appearance on Friday, and Philip Lane, chief economist at the European Central Bank, will speak a day later.

The conference is typically good for a torrent of additional commentary from a broad range of policymakers and economists.

Schedule details for the Friday to Saturday symposium will be made public Thursday evening local time.

Just before the event kicks off, and also likely to attract scrutiny, the minutes from the Fed’s July 30-31 policy meeting will be released on Wednesday.

“It’s highly likely Powell will use his Jackson Hole address to declare it will soon be the ‘appropriate’ time to cut rates.

“So attention will focus on a narrower question: Will he or won’t he signal an openness to a 50 basis-point move?

“We don’t think Powell will shut the door to a 50 basis points cut, but he also won’t show any particular inclination toward it.

“That’s because policymakers likely haven’t reached a consensus on the urgency of cutting rates,” according to Bloomberg economists Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins.

Fresh figures on US housing demand, as well as weekly jobless claims, are the highlight of a lean week for US economic data.

On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors will issue data on previously-owned home sales, followed the next day by the government’s snapshot of new-home purchases. Both are seen showing modest increases, suggesting the residential real estate market is stabilising after a recent drop in mortgage rates.

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labour Statistics is slated to release its preliminary benchmark revision estimate for payrolls in the year through March. The final figures are due early next year.

Further north, Canadian inflation data for July will be important to keeping the central bank on track to deliver a third straight rate cut in September.

The Bank of Canada expects uneven progress toward the 2% target and is increasingly focused on downside risks, so it’s primarily looking to see sustained evidence of easing.

Retail sales data for June and a flash estimate for July will also shed light on the health of the country’s consumer.

Elsewhere, flash purchasing manager index readings for Japan, the UK and the euro area will be in focus, while China is expected to keep loan prime rates steady.

Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to cut rates, while central banks in Turkiye, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea are set to hold.

Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda grabs the spotlight on Friday when he appears in parliament to explain the thinking behind the July 31 rate hike after some traders cited the move as a catalyst for market ructions earlier this month. Ueda is also likely to discuss the policy outlook.

Elsewhere in central banks, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to keep the one-year and five-year loan prime rates steady after last month’s surprise cuts.

Bloomberg Economics forecasts the PBoC will cut the rates by 10 basis points in the fourth quarter.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) releases minutes from this month’s meeting as economists look for signs of any softening in the RBA’s hawkish rhetoric, and the Bank of Korea is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 3.5% to ward off a rise in household debt.

Thailand and Indonesia are also predicted keep borrowing costs unchanged.

The region gets purchasing managers’ index (PMI) statistics for Australia, Japan and India on Thursday, and Thailand’s second-quarter economic growth is seen accelerating year-on-year and slowing versus the prior period.

Japan’s consumer inflation probably picked up for a third straight month in July, and trade figures are due during the week from Japan, Malaysia and New Zealand. Malaysia also publishes inflation data.

With the European Central Bank widely expected to resume rate cuts in September, all eyes will be on data for negotiated wages and on the account of policymakers’ July decision - both of which are due on Thursday.

Flash PMIs for Germany, France and the eurozone are also scheduled for that day, with economists predicting similarly poor readings as last month.

In situation in the UK - which just saw bumper numbers for second-quarter gross domestic product - is much rosier, and PMI numbers there are likely to be upbeat.

On Wednesday data from South Africa is set to show inflation slowed to an 11-month low of 4.8% in July from 5.1% a month earlier.

That could open room for the central bank to cut rates at its September meeting if this disinflation process continues.

Governor Lesetja Kganyago has repeatedly said that it will adjust rates once inflation is sustainably at the 4.5% mid-point of its target range.

 - Bloomberg