Koon Yew Yin's Blog

Case study: Gadang - Koon Yew Yin

Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Mon, 12 Dec 2016, 12:57 PM
Koon Yew Yin
0 1,449
An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.

All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin

I read Alex Tan’s article on ROE in which he is not supporting Gadang but Ooi Teik Bee is supporting. Their statements on Gadang in i3investor.com quote

Conclusion :Low PE of below 10 and good 5 years ROE should not be treated as a conclusion to buy a company. Many investors bought Gadang when it was selling at a PE of 8.88 when the share price was RM1.30. Besides, they noticed the ROE was improving. Thus, many rushed in to buy with the expectation that the past performance will repeat itself. Again, I am not saying that Gadang is a bad company. I just think it is involved in construction business which is very cyclical in nature and investors, especially value growth ones, need to think twice before putting your money in.   

Ooi Teik Bee According to my contractor friend, all contractors of MRT1 (total 8) will get a package of MRT2 project. 6 of them had secured the contract except Gadang and TRC. 
Gadang will get one of last 3 packages in 2017 or sooner. 
I hope Gadang will not disappoint me. 
Please be informed. 
Thank you. 
Ooi

11/12/2016 19:33

 
 

I am writing this article to share my opinion. Of course, on hind side and looking at the chart, it is easy to see what was the right thing to do. But if you did not do what you should have done, you must sell now before you lose more money.

 

 

The above chart shows that the price of Gadang started falling sharply when the company announced its 1st quarter EPS of 6.5 sen on 27th Oct. Many shareholders refused to cut loss and many bought for the bonus shares and warrants and split of shares. But the share price continues to drop on 28th Nov when the new split and bonus shares were listed. It continues to fall every day.

GOD only knows when it will stop falling and reverses its down trend.

There are obviously more sellers than buyers which causes the price to fall. If you were holding some Gadang shares, you should have started selling when the shocking profit was announced on 27th OCT. You should continue selling even when you received the split and bonus shares because you do not know when the trend will reverse so that you can sell at a higher price.  

The cut loss policy is good to reduce losses but it is not so easy to execute because some investors cannot overcome their pride and ego to admit their mistakes.

However, they must remember that Gadang will not be able to make more money this year than last financial year basing on the remaining Rm 600 million value of contract works it has and its poor property development business outlook.

Its annual profit for last financial year was Rm 94 million and its 1st quarter profit of Rm 16.7 million. I cannot see how Gadang can make more profit in this current financial year than last financial year.

Many optimistic speculators like to believe Gadang will secure one of the remaining contract packages of the MRT2 project and it can derive sufficient profit to beat its last year’s profit.

From my long experience in the contracting industry, I can say Gadang is very desperate to get some contract works to pay for its fixed operating cost and salary for all its permanent staff. Bearing in mind that Gadang has not been successful in several previous tenders it would have to lower its tender price further in trying to secure one of the three remaining contract packages of the MRT2 project.

Even if Gadang can get one of the remaining contracts and even if it can make profit, the profit will not come in on time for this current financial year.   

When Gadang announces its annual profit which will be less than its profit for the last financial year, its price will drop further.

Have you seen the price of any company goes up when the company reports reduced profit? 

Final decision is yours

Related Stocks
Market Buzz
More articles on Koon Yew Yin's Blog
CPO price is rising rapidly as shown by chart below - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Nov 22, 2024

All plantation companies are reporting better profit for the quarter ending September when CPO price was about RM 3,800 per ton.

MHC Reported Increased Profit - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Nov 21, 2024

Indonesia is the biggest palm oil producer in the world. Indonesia plans to implement biodiesel with a mandatory 40% blend of palm oil-based fuel from Jan. 1 next year, a senior energy ministry offici

Why all plantation companies will continue to report more profit - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Nov 20, 2024

Indonesia plans to implement biodiesel with a mandatory 40% blend of palm oil-based fuel from Jan. 1 next year, a senior energy ministry official said recently, lifting prices of the vegetable oil...

Who will win the Presidential Election? - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Oct 30, 2024

Latest poll on 30th Oct 2024

Who will win the Presidential Election? - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Oct 30, 2024

Latest poll on 30th Oct 2024

Wasco expects better profits in coming quarters with robust order book - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Oct 25, 2024

The group is expected to deliver better profits and revenue from its pipe coating, engineering, and bioenergy segments.

Malaysian Communist Party - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Oct 14, 2024

Today I read the article by Murray Hunter titled “A Visit to the Malaysian Communist Party tunnels in Betong, Thailand”, which is an important part of Malaysia’s history.

Property Developers comparison - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Oct 04, 2024

KSL is still the cheapest based on a 4.4 PE ratio, which means its share price should continue to go up. Unfortunately, there are a few small investors who always queue to sell at cheaper prices...

Property Developers comparison - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Oct 04, 2024

KSL is still the cheapest based on a 4.4 PE ratio, which means its share price should continue to go up. Unfortunately, there are a few small investors who always queue to sell at cheaper prices...

Water pollution in the UK: the causes and effects - Koon Yew Yin

Created by Koon Yew Yin | Sep 06, 2024

Water pollution is a huge challenge for freshwater in the UK, impacting our rivers, streams, and lakes and the wildlife that call them home.

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 0 of 0 comments

Post a Comment