Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Putin cannot win his Ukraine invasion - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Sun, 13 Mar 2022, 12:57 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
I predict Russian President Putin will fail in his attempt to invade Ukraine.
Why did Russian troops invade?
In a pre-dawn TV address on 24 February, President Putin declared Russia could not feel "safe, develop and exist" because of what he claimed was a constant threat from modern Ukraine.
Immediately, airports and military headquarters were attacked, then tanks and troops rolled in from Russia, Russian-annexed Crimea and its ally Belarus. Big cities have been shelled, neighbourhoods razed to the ground and millions of Ukrainians have fled their homes.
And yet Russia bans the terms war or even invasion, threatening journalists with jail if they do. For President Putin this is a "special military operation".
Many of his justifications for war were false or irrational.
He claimed his goal was to protect people subjected to bullying and genocide and aim for the "demilitarisation and de-Nazification" of Ukraine. There has been no genocide in Ukraine: it is a vibrant democracy, led by a president who is Jewish.
Russia has launched a devastating attack on Ukraine, a European democracy of 44 million people, bombarding its cities and closing in on the capital, Kyiv, prompting a mass exodus of 2.5 million refugees.
But why did Russia's authoritarian leader tear up a peace deal with his neighbour and unleash what European leaders have labelled "Putin's war"?
He has shattered peace in Europe and thrown the continent's entire security structure into jeopardy.
Putin’s justification for his Ukraine invasion is false. He is afraid Ukraine will soon join NATO and become a thread to Russia. No country including U.S. would want to get involve in a nuclear war with Russia.
As of 2022, the Federation of American Scientists estimates that Russia possesses 5,977 nuclear weapons, while the United States has 5,428; Russia and the U.S. each have about 1,600 active deployed strategic nuclear warheads.
Many member countries of NATO donated money and weapons to help Ukraine.
Last week, both Germany and Sweden announced they would join other nations in sending weapons to Ukraine. Berlin, which previously prohibited such aid, pledged 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles, and Sweden said it would send 5,000 anti-tank weapons, along with other military aid, according to Reuters.
Britain has now supplied 3,615 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, and will also shortly be supplying a small consignment of Javelin anti-tank missiles, he told lawmakers in parliament.
Biden to send $350M in military aid to Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden has authorized the State Department to send another $350 million in weapons, including Javelin anti-tank weapons, to help Ukrainian forces fight back the ongoing Russian invasion.
Shoulder missile launcher is most effective.
Currently Ukraine has thousands of military weapons. I believe the shoulder missile launcher is the most powerful and effective. It can shoot down aeroplanes, tanks and military vehicles.
Russia has 40 miles long of military convoy about 15 kilometres north of Kyiv, capital of Ukraine, for more 2 weeks, since the war began. The Ukrainian soldiers used shoulder missile launchers to shot a few of the trucks. As a result, the whole convoy is jammed up and cannot move forward. Currently more and more hungry soldiers left the convoy to beg for food and water from the Ukrainians.
Why I predict Putin will fail in his Ukraine invasion?
As you can see the Russians are bombing military bases, civilian properties and a Ukrainian children hospital. Russia cannot win the war without foot soldiers. Moreover, the economy sanctions will completely damage the Russian economy. The Russian Roble has already depreciated by 40%.
For those who are interested to know how much damage sanctions will do to Russia can read on.
Over the past week, Western countries have ramped up sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. The measures are the toughest since those imposed on Iran in 2010 and North Korea in 2013.
Russia is the largest economy and the largest country globally, by population, against which such strong sanctions have ever been implemented. Western leaders know that they will not immediately stop the war, but hope that they would inflict enough damage on the Russian economy to help de-escalate the conflict.
So how tough are the sanctions? They are much tougher than those previously imposed on Russia in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, but I would not call them “nuclear”. That is, they could damage the Russian economy but not obliterate it, given some major loopholes purposefully left by the sanction architects.
What follows is my insight into how the current package of sanctions will and will not hurt the Russian economy and why.
Sanctions on the Central Bank
Undoubtedly, the most powerful blow to the Russian financial system is the imposition of sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), which plays a crucial role in the domestic foreign exchange market.
The CBR has enormous foreign exchange reserves amounting to $640bn and it traditionally regulates the level of the rouble exchange rate.
The freezing of the CBR’s assets and accounts in the G7 countries means that it is left with gold reserves worth $127bn held in Russia and renminbi reserves worth $70bn. Both are useless from the point of view of maintaining stability in the domestic foreign exchange market.
From February 24 to March 2 the CBR loaned 4.4 trillion roubles (3.4 percent of GDP) to banks as part of its efforts to maintain stability in the financial system.
The sanctions against the CBR affected the domestic foreign exchange market immediately after they were announced on Sunday. By the end of that day, the selling rate of dollars in exchange offices of banks had risen by at least 45 percent compared with Friday. In the next days, the gap between selling and buying rates in the banks’ offices was between 20 and 50 percent.
Starting from Sunday night, the CBR and the government issued several new regulations imposing currency control. Exporters now have to sell 80 percent of foreign exchange earnings for roubles. Foreigners cannot sell Russian stocks and bonds and transfer coupons and dividends to their accounts, while residents and non-residents from 43 countries (that imposed sanctions on Russia) cannot transfer funds to their accounts with banks outside Russia.
A side-effect of the sanctions on the CBR is the freezing of assets belonging to the Ministry of Finance, current accounts and funds of the National Welfare Fund. But it does not seem that this will have any effect on the current economic situation.
On the one hand, at the current level of oil prices, Russia’s budget is in surplus, and the Ministry of Finance does not need to use reserves. On the other hand, when the Ministry of Finance sells its foreign currency reserves, the buyer is the CBR; the Ministry of Finance does not need to go to the market for this.
Consequently, even if the accounts of the CBR are frozen, the Ministry of Finance will be able to receive roubles from it, if at some point it wants to sell some of its currency reserves.
However, the devaluation of the rouble will certainly affect consumer inflation, which may grow by an additional 4-5 percent for a 40-50 percent increase in the value of the dollar. By the end of February, consumer price inflation in Russia exceeded 9 percent, with food inflation exceeding 12.5 percent.
Devaluation of the rouble, potential problems with imports, and general political uncertainty may undermine a business’s desire to take risks and result in lower growth in agriculture, lower supply, and even higher food inflation. In addition, disruptions in the payment system may lead to disruptions in the supply of imported goods to Russia, further accelerating inflation by reducing supply.
SWIFT and foreign payments
The EU and the US have put on their sanctions list a number of Russian banks and major companies. This will result in Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, which holds 33 percent of the banking system’s assets, being unable to make its payments and those of its customers denominated in dollars. Its correspondent accounts with US banks will be blocked and the bank had to pull out of the European market. Four other banks, VTB, Otkritie, Novikom bank, and Sovcom bank will face the same fate.
In addition, the US blocked 13 major Russian companies and banks from accessing its capital markets and banned US investors from buying new issues of Russian government bonds in their initial public offerings and on the secondary market. The G7 countries also decided to disconnect several Russian banks from the SWIFT system. Disconnecting banks from the SWIFT system does not limit their ability to make foreign exchange payments. It only slows down payments and makes them more expensive.
So what does this mean for the Russian economy? The Russian financial system is highly integrated into the global system. Russia is one of the largest raw materials suppliers to the world market. At the same time, the Russian economy is a significant importer of consumer goods, technology and investment equipment. That is why international payments are critical.
Disconnecting the largest banks from making customer payments will disrupt the flow of goods, accumulate a consumer market deficit and accelerate inflation. Some companies whose business is in importing goods to Russia or selling imported goods in Russia may go bankrupt. The average Russian citizen will pay the price for this, as real household incomes shrink. As usual, inflation will hit harder the poor.
However, it is important to point out that Western countries have not limited payments related to Russian energy resources, which constitute 50 percent of Russian exports. In this way, Europe guarantees that energy prices will not skyrocket and damage its own economy.
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 47 of 47 comments
Special military operations can have many objectives. Winning the war is not one of them.
2022-03-13 18:35
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/12/ukraine-accuses-russia-of-fake-referendum-plot-a76890
If the referendum happens and another republic is born, one wonders what pro war supporters and China will say. China says is just about Crimea and the two new republics. But Putin looks more interested in the entire Ukraine
2022-03-13 18:48
No matter who wins, China benefits tremendously! If sanctions imposed indefinately, then Russia will have no choice but to trade exclusively with China! Ukraine is just a pond to world leaders! Unfortunately for ukrainians, their president is not bright despite been a jew! And Putin seems to lost it too!
2022-03-13 19:34
After what happen to Ukraine, Asean members will not support US intervention in South China Sea! Or Taiwan invasion! Best to keep neutral!
2022-03-13 19:40
Malaysia with our expensive Chinese made frigates that use machine guns, don’t think our warships can scare anyone
2022-03-13 19:43
Posted by qqq3333 > 36 minutes ago | Report Abuse
The first sign of trouble Malaysia should surrender.
Answer : Actually for local chinese, things are not looking pretty! Majority malays consider local chinese as outsiders! Worsen by non existence racial ties! Many refuse to use national language in their everyday lives! If China extend their dominance in Malaysia, then local chinese will feel the heat as well! Malaysia today is not the old Malaysa that we used to know!
2022-03-13 20:42
It's best for China to be like Japan! Once China attains status as superpower, it should remain as neutral and peaceful! It's really bring little benefit to bully other nations like what US and EU nations have done! What happen in Ukraine is a modern day lesson to all of us!
2022-03-13 20:45
Can’t blame them man, they aren’t sure who we will support. China or Malaysia
2022-03-13 20:46
Upagain! That's the thing! Majority malays can't tell where local chinese loyalty is! That's why Grandpa Koon should tone down his pro China stake! Don't make the already worsening racial divide grow wider!
2022-03-13 20:57
It's really important for local chinese youth to speak bahasa with malays! Don't repeat the mistake of older generations who some can't even speak or understand bahasa! Forcing the malays to speak English with them is a huge nono! Actually it's crossing the redline for majority malays!
2022-03-13 20:58
@qqq3333 still blur sotong. Even if Zelensky is killed tomorrow, the Ukrainians will continue to fight
It’s like Malaysia, unlike qqq333 who doesn’t mind a foreign controlled government. The rest of us will fight
2022-03-13 21:07
Sorry to say, Zelensky is a comedian! He could have avoided this civil war ! He should have known that joining NATO is a huge nono! I don't know what to say about this current Ukraine thingy! I only hope common sense prevail and end it as soon as possible!
2022-03-13 21:16
China thinks like you with regards to Taiwan. Invaders welcomed with roses
2022-03-13 22:22
Putin will win the ukraine war. It just matter of time. Ukraine will become the slaves and the women will become the comfort women servicing the Russian soldiers from millde east.
2022-03-14 08:46
Vibrant democratic government? It is ranked 122 in corruption index while Malaysia is 66. Tells you a lot.
2022-03-14 09:22
Any nations with too many foreign debts due to corruption with poor economy mgt. sure end up as puppet to world super powers one day....MY may end up like Ukraine as well...both Russia and China are economically strong, no need to POLANPA, begging for loans from US
2022-03-14 09:30
US very happy to give billions loans to MY... it's DEBTS TRAP to bring us to Holland one day......Sri Lanka now at bankruptcy stage- NO USD to service loans...So, no pump oil at petrol station....will MY also like Sri Lanka???
2022-03-14 09:42
Uncle Koon. You have not undergone Army training before. Troops of convoy stucked on the way do not need to look for foods. Their ration of can foods and drinks can last for weeks and months. Only uncle Koon's vehicle got stucked in a jam need to go for snack or pee. Hahahaaa.. Uncle Koon, so naive.
2022-03-15 14:41
One former Secretary of State (USA) said that Ukraine should be given all the tools they needed to defend their country. On the other side, the US/NATO members are very concerned about Russia will get supplies from China.
The Europeans kind of did not believe that Putin would launch the war that was intended to wipe out Ukraine from the face of the earth. While the NATO had many attempts ensued until the final minute in order to avoid this war, but they were in a way have been totally surprised that Russia did start the invasion with reasons that were made known some time ago.
In a way, Putin’s intelligence and patience were tested time and again by the NATO.
Putin had indicated before the invasion that the outsiders should not interfere in the “special military operation”. It may take some more days to achieve the result of defeating a neighbor which has been made used by others to cause potential harm to Russia.
Needless to say, Russia will not come out from this conflict as a loser. The outcome of this war is still up to everybody to guess. Don’t tell them that Putin eventually may be forced to use nuclear bombs.
Importantly, the NATO members have to be aware that equipping Ukraine with rockets/bombs/fighter jets and allowing voluntary fighters to enter Ukraine will not deter Russia’s aim to defeat Ukraine decisively.
Inevitably, in each war, there will tend to have casualties among the civilians and public facilities.
2022-03-15 20:11
Putin will eventually die a lonely death just like many dictators. There is no winner in any war. All the parties in confluxt are suffering
2022-03-15 23:41
Actually Putin expose Russian obligachs to the rest of the world! Which also indirectly expose US obligachs or the enlightens! While Russian obligachs are comfortable milking Russia all for themselves, US obligachs on the other hand are the Aholes of the world as they interven in US affair and the rest of the world!
What i am trying to say is, Putin biggest miscalculation is putting global obligachs in danger! Now the war of Russia obligachs vs US obligachs come to full view!
Ukraine is just a pond! The real story is the current war among obligachs! Now that's what 99% don't see right now! But you will!
2022-03-16 02:04
Qqq! Yeah, Putin is just a puppet for Russia obligachs! Putin is a dictator without power if Russia obligachs throw him under the bus! Russia soldiers and Ukraine civilians and army are just innocent figures in this chess play! Anyway, innocent lives are sacrifice for nothing! It's pure murder!
2022-03-16 02:34
I do not understand why when Russia go into war and under what law you can saction and conficate Russia business man assets.
Shouldn't the world saction all the arm manufacturers.
2022-03-16 07:28
Best you read Singapore’s foreign minister speech
Yes, the 3 countries above have all the might, but your mentality is no different from the big fat school bully
2022-03-16 08:37
There is nothing normal in mariopol, the city will take years to rebuild. People with their apartments and homes bomb and burnt down.
Of course, a pro invasion supporter like you will say the damages in Mariopol are all just Hollywood graphics and propaganda
2022-03-16 09:15
Why Putin is barking at wrong tree? you pissed with US but hit Ukraine instead? why dont just sent directly missile to US land and vice versa. why both dogs always fight at foreign i/o own home land? Pls leave SEA as neutral, non aligned, peaceful, harmony place.... we dont want to take side
2022-03-16 10:47
why barbarian always like to drag all the innocent Asia into the ego conflict who is world super power? pls leave us alone...,.mind your own business
2022-03-16 10:54
Perhaps, current missile tech. not able to reach either side? Distance from Russia to United States is 8,909 kilometers. This air travel distance is equal to 5,536 miles...
2022-03-16 10:58
Upagain! Yeah, not many realise Russia and US are actually very close! They can build a 100 mile long bridge! Should just bypass Ukraine and fight each other directly!
2022-03-16 12:16
both are close buddy. put a wayang to push up oil price using innocent army with worthless death
2022-03-16 12:23
Well, the Russians fail to cross a 10 meter river in Kyiv so 100 miles to Alaska pretty far for their engineering team to achieve
Hahaha
2022-03-16 13:03
both Ukraine and Russian are brothers. Big boss instruct must follow ma....But, kuli can choose pretend fight -play to lose lah....no wonder till now, Russian still cannot win lah....
2022-03-16 13:33
KYY play Command & Conquer Red Alert since childhood and still playing it now
Russia always lose in the end
2022-03-16 14:35
If this Ukraine war pass one month, then basically Putin should just call it quit! He already exhausted Russia military assets! He is dealing with 40 million ukrainians who are highly motivated to keep their sovereignty!
2022-03-16 15:09
Russian army play IDSS like in MY stock market....always lao sai, also got gain....According to local TV host and honorary ambassador to the United Nations Population Fund in Ukraine, Masha Efrosinina, any Russian soldiers who take up the white flag will receive 5 million rubles (US$45,000) worth of crypto or cash
2022-03-16 15:18
Chinaman! Better take that offer! Ukraine war seems like Aghanistan! Once in, it's just matter of time before they come out with plenty of wounds! There's only like 80 talibans! Compare to millions of armed ukrainians! Go figure!
2022-03-16 15:31
Russia is going to double up their war resources, pulling from eastern areas especially those bordering China.
2022-03-16 15:45
IF Russia do WHAT USA DO in IRAQ
Ukrian is finished and war over in 1week
2022-03-16 15:45
Russian has no choice, unless Ukarine can assure that it will never join NATO otherwise at least the Eastern Ukraine inc Kiev will be occupied. This area will create a security buffer for Rissia.
2022-03-16 17:17
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The early the ukrainains realise that Putin will win the battle in ukraine the better..
As of whether Putin will win the war that is a totally different question.
2022-03-13 18:05