Slowly but steadily, our Malaysian bourse could be making its way to higher grounds amid the ongoing market consolidation cycle.

After hitting a low of 1,476.56, the benchmark FBM KLCI quickly rebounded to end the week at 1,490.64, close to where it was two Fridays ago. Both the FBM 70 Index (+1.2%) and the FBM ACE Index (-1.5%), however, showed a mixed weekly performance. Daily average volume rose further to 1.4b shares (from 1.2b units) valued at RM1.7b (RM1.8b before).
Trading interest is set to increase even more in the coming week. Over the weekend, the Prime Minister has dropped a hint that a general election could be held in the near future (as soon as in several months' time). That being the case, an air of "feel-good" expectations may hold up our market sentiment in the run-up to the polling dates.

And looking to capture investors' attention in the week ahead are two high-profile events, namely:

1. The official launch of the government's Economic Transformation Programme on Monday (25 Oct), the essence of which could be significant considering that the recent Budget 2011 was lacking of implementation details on how to restructure the nation's economy into a high-income model; and
2. The debut listing of Malaysia Marine & Engineering Holdings - a heavy engineering and marine services provider with a market cap of RM6.1b (based on the institutional offer price of RM3.80 per share) - scheduled on Friday (29 Oct).

On the corporate front, the earnings reporting season continues with index heavyweight Tenaga due to release its FY Aug 10 full-year financial results on Thursday (28 Oct). This comes as more foreign money has been parked in Malaysia equities already. Bursa Malaysia last week
revealed that foreign ownership (as a percentage of overall market cap) has gone up from 20.6% in Jun to 21.7% in Sep this year after foreigners turned net buyers of RM9.5b worth of stocks in the third quarter.

Nonetheless, the existing foreign shareholdings level remains way below what it was in Jan 08 (at 26.5%), even though the FBM KLCI has now recovered to near its record peak of 1,524.69 about 2¾ years ago. From a technical perspective, we are still waiting for the FBM KLCI to cross the immediate resistance hurdle of 1,495 in a matter of time. Riding on a mini uptrend channel at the moment, if and when it overcomes the first barrier, the bellwether will probably then be on its way to challenge the next resistance target of 1,525.

Meanwhile, the recent trading pattern suggests that any market weakness arising from the ongoing consolidation activity will likely be relatively brief and shallow. Our existing support lines remain at 1,465 (first) and 1,435 (second), respectively.

Report from
HWangDBS