【每周一：大行晨报】Monday Morning Brief
7月29日 - 头条财经 ATFX 大行晨报
储局无必要减息半厘
欧洲央行维持三个主要利率不变，并且没有如市场预期，央行开始新一轮量宽货币政策，欧元可以避免深度下跌。欧洲央行行长德拉吉在记者会上表示，目前央行货币政策将维持一段较长时间的低息环境。鸽派言论，欧元未能获得大幅度提振，欧美在1.1280附近遇上阻力。欧元区将公布7月经济景气指数和消费者信心指数终值。此外，德国7月CPI初值和欧元区7月CPI也必须注意，有关通胀水平配合其后公布的欧元区第二季度GDP初值表现。若以上提及的数据表现胜预期，欧元将可望保持1.1105支持，上探1.1320阻力。
上周美国公布第二季实际GDP初值数据，前值为3.1%，市场预期跌至1.8%。最后结果，第二季实际GDP初值胜预期，报2.1%。利用过去联储局指标利率跟GDP幅度比较，目前估计联储局降息合理幅度只有25个基点，指标利率可以调低至2.25%，无必要降息50个基点，把指标利率调低至2%。除非，联储局预期美国经济将大幅放缓，就业市场恶化。早前，美国总统言论希望大幅度降息，以提振经济。联储局有官员指，提前降息有助避免经济恶化前，出现严重经济及投资市场影响。
ATFX亚太区首席分析师 林铭添
以上资讯由ATFX亚太区分析师 林铭添 (Martin)提供
如有查询可电邮至cs.gm@atfx.com或WeChat ID: ATFX_China
更多资讯：https://www.atfx.com/gm/zh-hant/
法律声明：ATFX 是 AT Global Markets（ATGM, 注册编号24226 IBC 2017）使用的商用名称 。ATGM 是位於圣文森特和格林纳丁斯的国际商业公司。注册地址 : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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