Jay's market diary
Behind Greatech's "great" numbers
Why am I writing
What prompted me to write this article? It is partly because of a friend of mine who asked me about this company during a dinner over the weekend. I don’t like to give un-informed advice so I did some research before getting back to him. It was then that I realize many retailers may be chasing this stock without understanding key information about this company. Information is only useful when it’s timely, so I decided to piece them together and share what I know about Greatech in this article.
Not so "great" news
Before I start, to save you time I should let you know the info below does not constitute postive news for the company (though by no fault of the company). If you only wish to hear good stuffs and/or are not interested to know the other side of story, you can stop reading here.
I generally don’t like to write this kind of articles because it naturally attracts a lot of criticisms from fan boys and fan girls. Writing articles with screaming BUYs is so much easier. But I believe in investing by knowing your facts and make reasonable assumptions on the future. So just because it's not good news does not mean it should be swept under the carpet. Without further ado, let's start.
Who is Greatech
Greatech is a manufacturer of automated equipment, including material handling, assembly, inspection etc. For readers who are familiar with listed equipment makers, such products would be similar to your likes of Vitrox, Pentamaster, Mi Technovation, MMSV etc. Greatech however also sell production line systems which are mainly for solar customers.
Please read its prospectus if you are interested to know further of the business nature.
Explosive historical profits
Why did Greatech share price soar from the first day? The reasons are simple: profits, profits and profits.
From 2016 net profit of RM5.8m, it exploded to RM19m and RM31.7m in 2017 and 2018 respectively. First quarter 2019 alone it hit RM12.5m. So annualising it would yield RM50m.
Assuming similar growth rate, then next year maybe hit RM70m and who knows, sky's the limit?
At RM0.81, market cap translate to RM510m, what a steal isn’t it? especially when compared to other equipment makers which some trade in PE of more than 10x or 15x.
But wait, did anyone bother to find out what’s the reason behind these amazing numbers?
Closer look
Looking closer, it will reveal that Greatech is not quite the same as the other equipment makers mentioned above. If you look at the revenue breakdown, production line system is the key contributor. Unlike other listed equipment makers who sell mostly to semiconductor customers, Greatech serves primarily solar panel maufacturers. This is where its major customer, First Solar, comes in. First Solar is a solar panel manufacturer listed in US. Please google them if interested to know more.
Previously its single automated equipment was sold to semiconductor and also solar guys like First Solar. It did ok in 2015-2016 but there's no signs of a future RM500m maket cap company. It was only in 2017 when they manage to sell the whole production line system to primarily First Solar that the sales exploded. Revenue contribution from First Solar group of companies also surged to as high as 88% in 2018. So suffice to say Greatech swim or sink with First Solar.
But what’s driving business from First Solar?
I believe the image below is quite self explanatory.
Basically, First Solar have a significant upgrade in their solar panel technologies from Series 4 to Series 6. To produce the new Series 6 panels, they were investing in setting up new factories. As you can see, they started building in Ohio, Malaysia and Vietnam. Excluding Malaysia S6 Factory 2 which has yet to be decided, five S6 factories were/will be set up with total capacity of 5.4GW.
Then the picture becomes clearer. As First Solar invests in new factories, they need to buy new equipments including production line systems from companies like Greatech, which is why Greatech’s revenue soared since 2017.
But how about the future?
As some of you may have observed, 4 out of 5 (or 4.2GW out of 5.4GW) of the S6 factories were completed and have started production as of today. Which begs the question, what will happen to First Solar’s purchase of equipments from Greatech? With only Ohio S6 Factory 2 1.2GW to be commissioned, will Greatech’s revenue be affected?
I’m afraid the answer is more likely than not.
Logically, you only need to invest heavily in equipments when you start a brand new factory. For specialized equipments, you would also need to order in advance to ensure they are ready once your factory is built. But once production started, there will likely only be periodic replacement or upgrades of equipments on a piecemeal basis. Which is what’s likely to happen to the business relationship between First Solar and Greatech.
Now with 4 out of 5 factories completed, it is only a matter of time before First Solar reduce their orders, unless and until they decide to invest further in future plants or their R&D start an entire new series of solar panels again (which is anyone's guess when it will be).
What’s the impact on Greatech revenue then?
Revenue from First Solar was RM68 and RM192m respectively in 2017 and 2018. These are likely for the first 4 factories since the timeline was quite close. Combined with maybe some spillover revenue to 2019 first quarter, we can guesstimate for every 1GW capacity, Greatech probably could sell RM70-80m worth of equipments to First Solar.
If this is the case, for Ohio Factory 2, First Solar may only need to purchase another RM80m-100m worth of equipments from Greatech for the coming year before it starts in 1Q 2020. This would be a sharp drop from the RM192m sales in 2018.
What about other customers
Of course Greatech could always source new customers or increase sales from existing customers. But currently, other than Panasonic which contributed around RM19m revenue, none of its top 5 customers actually exceed RM5m contribution, which would make covering any shortfall from First Solar’s RM192m revenue much harder.
Forecasting Greatech’s coming financials
I believe Greatech would still be profitable in coming quarters, but whether will it be up to investors’ expectations would be unclear, considering it has been chased up >30% above IPO price.
If you are expecting Greatech’s 2019 revenue to hit RM230m (annualizing first quarter) and profit of RM50m, that could be a tall order especially when there’s a high chance its largest customer would be reducing orders. It is thus likely that 2019 full year revenue could come in below 2018 level.
A rough estimate would see total revenue from First Solar could drop by one third to around RM120m-RM130m for 2019. Assuming all other customers’ purchases stays roughly constant (some increase, some reduce), 2019 group revenue could come in at around RM150m.
Gross profit margins were between 21-36% in the last two years since they started selling production line system. Applying this range of margins would mean gross profit of RM29m-RM50m, which could indicate a net profit of around RM15m-RM35m . First quarter gross profit margins was 33% and net profit hit RM12.5m so chances are it may be able to hit the higher end of the range. If assuming Greatech could achieve RM25m-RM35m profit for 2019 based on RM140m revenue, current market cap of RM530m would imply a PE of 15-20x.
Worst case scenario
The worst case scenario would be some of the Ohio plant 2 equipments are already recognized in the historical revenue. That could mean the revenue from First Solar would drop off faster and steeper than expected.
And a gross profit margin of 28-36% was applied for the above estimations. Should subsequent quarters’ margins are weaker than expected, then profit would come in even lower than estimated.
Better scenario
If First Solar decides to proceed with converting 1 of the Malaysia Series 4 factory to S6 Factory 2 by 2021, they could source equipments from Greatech beginning from 2019. That would represent fresh revenue opportunities for Greatech. Even if it's conversion of an existing factory, I suppose the equipments and production line would still be vastly different and need to be replaced since the technology would be different.
What should you do then?
Should you buy/hold/sell? Ultimately it depends on what valuation are you comfortable with Greatech. Do you think Greatech deserves a PE of 10x, 15x or 20x and above? Or if you think if the estimate on sales to First Solar was too bearish? Then you can always work out your own estimation of revenue and profit then ask yourself if you are overpaying for it.
But what investors need to be aware, if First Solar indeed reduce purchases from Greatech due to completion of the first few factories, 2019 and 2020 revenue and profit would drop but probably still bearable for most. But what happens after that? Series 6 technology is expected to last First Solar for at least quite some years.
And even if First Solar continues to expand its production capacity (should there be stronger that expected demand), expansion pace is likely to be more controlled and less aggressive since capacity has been ramped up earlier. Adding 1.2GW at a time simply doesn't generate the same business opportunities as adding 4.2GW in less than 12 months.
It would be up to Greatech's management to figure out how to cope with life beyond First Solar and how to effectively diversify and reduce the dependence on its major customer with >80% revenue contribution.
Summary
Equipment sales represents capital expenditure for customers and are lumpy in nature. Simply assuming an equipment making company can generate higher and higher revenue every year is extremely risky, especially when in Greatech’s case, there is a very high single customer risk.
We don't know the future but what we can do is simply gather information from public sources and try to piece them together. Will it turn out to be accurate is anyone’s guess. But it is important that people invest with their eyes wide open.
If you bought this stock knowing this information, but your rationale is because you believe in this company’s prospects, whereby there are a lot more opportunities out there to replace any shortfall from First Solar’s revenue, or if you believe in the management or think the company’s expertise deserves a premium valuation, then by all means invest.
But if you bought simply because you extrapolated recent results or due to fear of missing out (FOMO) after last few days' surge in share price, then you are bound to get burnt in your stock investment one day, even if not Greatech.
Stock market is like many markets out there, caveat emptor: buyers beware.
# Opinions are welcomed but for intellectual discussion, it would be greatly appreciated if readers first go through Greatech's prospectus and/or some of First Solar's recent years' company filings.
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Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 50 of 58 comments
I think you've not realised what's happening in Greatech. Go to Penang, visit the Plant and talk to the management then you should know what to expect in 2H 2019. All funds managers have taken note on the briefing recently.
2019-06-18 10:24
reasonable analysis but there are some key errors.
firstly, 4 out of 5 factories being completed and no more orders is wrong. completed as in building is completed and production started then yes. but not all machines have actually been delivered to reach those capacities they have mentioned. it is a gradual ramp up. this is always the case in the manufacturing industry and also explains why the green arrows are stretching until end-2020 in first solar's capacity roadmap chart.
2019-06-18 10:30
secondly, if you go deeper and investigate beyond reports (you can search Google Maps), you will see that the Ohio Factory 2 is actually still at building stage. they only started earthwork in June 2018 and building is nearing completion now but NO machines have been delivered.
2019-06-18 10:33
so what is actually happening is that machine deliveries will still be happening for Malaysia and Vietnam plants until end-2020. Machine deliveries for Ohio Plant 2 will START soon and last until end-2021 earliest.
2019-06-18 10:36
management also guided that 2019 revenue is expected to grow 10-15% from 2018 revenue. which means around RM241-252 million revenue in 2019. This guidance looks quite reasonable given that machine deliveries to 4 plants are ongoing while Ohio Factory 2 will start contributing soon. I believe that the RM150 million revenue you mentioned is very badly wrong.
2019-06-18 10:42
what shocked everyone and drove the price up like crazy was actually the profit margin in 1Q19. you would have noticed that profit margin was above 20% in 2016 and 2017. then in 2018, profit margin was at 14%. so many of us expected revenue to be in line with management guidance of RM241-252 million in 2019 AND 14% margin will continue. but the surprise was 20% margin in 1Q19 which was due to large deliveries of machines earlier leading to sharp increase in maintenance revenue which has high margin.
2019-06-18 10:46
if you look at vitrox, penta, MMSV, and MI Technovation, the valuations are far higher at closer or more than 20x PE. and that means Greatech is still very undervalued. order visibility is actually quite clear for at least another 2 years. and you did not mention that the main purpose of this IPO was actually to expand and secure new customers in the US. the US is actually where a big part of solar producers are headquartered. First Solar is only one of them.
2019-06-18 10:54
another key point worth noting is that the IPO adviser screwed up by arranging for listing in the ACE Market at a ridiculously low IPO price. the share price rally comes as no surprise, even more so after the latest quarter results. The ACE market status means many institutional funds cannot invest in the company and this is actually slowing down the rally in share price. management also indicated that they will seek transfer to Main Board soon and this should be a key catalyst in the next year or so.
2019-06-18 10:59
BoPoint, cannot blame Jay because he is writing these articles and thoughts as a retailer. He doesn't have access to management meetings like me and you. But to analyse like this, I think Jay has good potential. All he needs to do is join a research house or any of the funds. Management meeting is the key thing that Jay is missing.
2019-06-18 11:32
Wonderful write up, Jay! Purely based on facts, easy to understand and a clear demonstration of Jay's good business sense. I'm just amazed how Jay is able to find so much information and being able to piece them altogether. You saved me from jumping in head first.
2019-06-18 13:56
Thanks for the opinions. Let me try to reply to some of them.
@Primeinvestor I already mentioned they may or may not secure new sizable orders from other customers. I’m not an insider so I can’t answer that. Track record suggested that other that Panasonic (around RM19m orders), they have not secured any sizable new ones (>RM3-5m) in recent years.
@wolf1 No doubt Greatech’s niche is solar, but I don’t think the company is targeting only solar customers. The only question is how successful can they secure new customers outside solar industry.
@ 624298991 Tek Seng is solar panel manufacturer and one with limited technology know how. Not comparable at all.
@ BoPoint Those are insider information which I don’t have access to. Why don’t you share?
@ csan I’m quite worried if you are one of the unit trust fund managers or analysts managing public money because it does not seem like you do much research.
1. Machines can be fixed inside a factory building before or after completion as long as main structure is done, but nonetheless that doesn’t mean machines are not pre-ordered. Unless the machines are standard ones and available on demand, you have to let your suppliers design and manufacture them.
When that process starts, suppliers will start to recognize the revenue and profits. Revenue and profit would have started to be recognised upon receipt of purchase order and recognised in milestones. Which is also why revenue starts to flow in 2017, more than a year before all the S6 factories are completed. So sorry to poke your bubble, but machines for Malaysia and Vietnam would have been mostly if not all delivered and installed.
2. I think you are confusing adding new lines with ramp up.
When you build a factory you could design extra floor space to add more machines in the future. But not the case for First Solar. They are confident of the end demand and so when they design and build the factory it's all fixed. Machines and production lines are set up to hit 1.2GW from the beginning.
Every new line got early stage teething issues or there may not be enough demand to require it to run up to the designed capacity it was meant for. Ramp up simply means getting it to run smoothly until it reaches optimal capacity. The green arrows stretching to end of that charts simply indicates it is supposed to produce for the foreseeable future, not ramp up period.
I'm sure you would still like to argue one way or another but there's already a conclusive answer in First Solar's disclosures. The fact that you didn't bother to check means you don't even do your research properly.
3. Yes they have allocated IPO proceeds to expand biz in US but there’s nothing concrete. No doubt US is a big market and it would be positive if they could secure more customers there. But I would be very worried if they target more solar customers than to diversify.
4. Margins were not a big surprise. 2017 they hit similar margins only it dropped in 2018. My best guess is the margins could be different at early stage and late stages when they produce and fix the machines. 2019 first quarter I suspect it’s early stage for Ohio Plant 2 again and if there’s also reversal of warranties (when warranty provision is not needed anymore after expiry of warranty period). So it’s not because of maintenance revenue. And if you think the company list at ridiculously low price instead of listing after their best year (might still be their best year for a while), then you have a lot of faith in the company than I do.
2019-06-18 14:49
To summarise, I’m not saying Greatech is a good or bad company. All I’m highlighting is there is a high possibility that revenue from First Solar will drop. Whether it could secure new orders to replace or even outgrow that is up to your faith in the management.
As for valuation, it’s subjective and it also depends on your views on the sector and the company. Of course you could argue that Vitrox trades at >30x PE or Pentamaster >15x PE. But not too long ago both these companies trade at much lower valuations. It’s far too common when people pay high PE during periods of higher profits and only to realise that PE also shrinks together when profits plateau or drop, causing a double whammy to the share price. That’s why you see a lot of roller coaster rides in Malaysia listed companies’ share prices.
2019-06-18 14:52
Thanks, Jay. Good advice. Agree with you , don't chase the share price because it is hot, we will not know when the music stops.
2019-06-18 15:08
Jay,
" revenue and profit would have started to be recognised upon receipt of purchase order and recognised in milestones. Which is also why revenue starts to flow in 2017, more than a year before all the S6 factories are completed. "
lol u think this is property development progress billing method?
" So sorry to poke your bubble, but machines for Malaysia and Vietnam would have been mostly if not all delivered and installed. "
lol that means you're implying that the management doesn't know anything about their company when they said there a lot more to deliver? its funny because some things i'm saying comes from management themselves when meeting with them... so maybe it is your bubble that is a little too big.
2019-06-18 15:16
"I’m quite worried if you are one of the unit trust fund managers or analysts managing public money because it does not seem like you do much research"
its good for you to speak more because the more you speak, the more you get exposed on how ametuer you are.
" revenue and profit would have started to be recognised upon receipt of purchase order and recognised in milestones. Which is also why revenue starts to flow in 2017, more than a year before all the S6 factories are completed. "
there is no chance for this to happen. the accounting standards do not allow this. recognition is only AFTER delivery of products. probably want to correct your mistake....for the benefit of the other readers....the ACTUAL thing that happened was that Greatech DELIVERED a production line to First Solar in Vietnam in 2017. it wasn't recognised as they manufactured it lol.
and to other readers, please ignore all the total NONSENSE that Jay was trying to explain about how the factory is built, how machines are set up and designed etc. the actual scenario is that Greatech has close to RM100 million in machine orders yet to be delivered to First Solar's Vietnam and Malaysia plant.
As for the Ohio plant, first installation of equipment will only start at the end of this month.
2019-06-18 15:56
The FACT is the first tool will arrive at the factory about 1 year before production !!
Please see the dotted line (----) in the Series 6 Manufacturing Milestones which mean tools arriving, in this link https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/02/23/first-solar-sold-out-well-into-...
You may see that 2017 start to have tools arriving, mostly in 2 factories (Ohio S6 factory 1 and Malaysia S6 factory 1)
In year 2018, tools arriving in FOUR factories (Ohio S6 factory 1, Malaysia S6 factory 1, Vietnam S6 factory 1 and factory 2). That is why the balloon in Greatech revenue for year 2018 !
But look at year 2019, tools arriving only in Vietnam S6 factory 2. If we add in the Ohio S6 factory 2, then only tools arrving in 2 factories.
If we presume on that tools delivery milestones, then we can expect to see lower revenue for Greatech in 2019.
18/06/2019 4:46 PM
2019-06-18 16:48
I expect the effect of lower tool deliveries on revenue start to kick in either by Q2 2019 or Q3 2019.
2019-06-18 17:05
@csan Unfortunately you are the one who does not understand the situation here. Unlike others that sell mainly machines, Greatech is selling a production line to First Solar which consists of multiple machines. In this case, it is only logical that it would follow project revenue and costing. Every major parts delivered would constitute billable milestones. Greatech would be an idiot if they only ship and bill First Solar once they complete the whole thing.
Management doesn’t know anything about their company? If you attend enough AGM or meet enough management, you would know what is called “management talk”. Unless the industry or company is in a bad shape or clear downtrend, there is always “a lot more” to do. Longer term they may be right, but did they say a lot more from Vietnam/Malaysia or in 2019?
Btw, according to one of the readers, apparently Greatech’s orderbook was RM169m as at Apr 2018 when the draft prospectus was released (unfortunately I couldn’t verify it since the copy was taken down). It shrunk to RM91m in April 2019 when the final prospectus was launched. Which also means they have less than one year revenue cover now.
Unless there’s a lot new orders coming in after April 2019, it seems like “a lot more” is more based on hope at this juncture rather than real figures.
2019-06-18 17:22
What a shit article. Lose up so much profit after read yr lousy article.
2019-06-18 17:28
@ Baby Shark On hindsight, I should only write this article when Greatech's bubble blows up
2019-06-18 17:34
Correction: Greatech's orderbook was RM169m as at Oct 2018. So it has gone down by almost half in around 6 months time.
2019-06-18 17:45
From our understanding several funds are still picking up so demands are far exceeding the supply in terms of stocks. Great analysis from a retailer point of view anyway. Can go deeper to understand more about the business
2019-06-18 17:46
Apparently the drop in Greatech's orderbook of RM169m as at Oct 2018 to RM91m in April 2019 match the lowering of tool deliveries in 2019 !!
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/02/23/first-solar-sold-out-well-into-2020/
Oh my god, that EXPLAIN everything !!
2019-06-18 17:53
Baby shark, I initially thought he had good intentions and I even went on to praise him for having good potential but when he replied things like revenue and profits start being recognised upon receipt of purchase order, no more deliveries to First Solar in Vietnam etc and also making personal attacks like not doing my research work properly and in a bubble bla bla, I knew his intentions were bad and the first comment saying that this is sour grape analysis looks to be true. It looks like he tried to desperately push the price down by fooling some retailers but he forgot that insti funds have been the one aggressively buying because of what management presented when they met us. And insti funds don't need to rely on such articles from retailers like this because we can to meet with management every now and then.
2019-06-18 18:54
Hehe, I collect Greatec share when there's "pessimism" at large, but its REAL price keep going up.
2019-06-18 19:13
Greatech is now clearly a GORENG STOCK !!
but why Greatech is a GORENG STOCK now ??
because when we have ppl who PURPOTEDLY have direct access to the company management be so KIND to come to i3 frequently to share his PURPORTEDLY discussion with the company management in detail which paint a bright immediate future for the company, OBSTENSIBLY without any form of documentary evidence whatsoever,
while public info contrarily and clearly show the COLD HARD FACT that Greatech's year 2019 tool deliveries to First Solar will be much lower (https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/02/23/first-solar-sold-out-well-into-2020/) and hence Greatech's 2019 revenue will be much lower than last year !
It is jubilant when the party is on, but when the music stop, some will leave with only underwear!! Hahaha ... have fun guys ........
2019-06-18 21:08
Semiconductor ATE is in downward cycle. Wait for another 3 years before buy in.
2019-06-19 00:14
@shpg22 Greatech has limited semiconductor exposure so they are not really affected. But yes it would not be good timing if they are trying to break into that space now
2019-06-19 05:50
@csan my personal guess is you never work in a real firm in your life before. Just writing reports as an analyst in IB gives you little feel of the real world. Just imagine, would you bill your customer a multi-million system all at one go at the end of delivery? Like any major project, MRT, power plants or even just a company implementing a firm wide ERP system, do you think any of those would be recognised based on milestones or lump sum at the end? You may not grasp the concept of accrual accounting but actually all you need is just need basic logical thinking.
Or better, maybe you should check with the company if they recognise the production line system revenue for the whole factory all at one go or do they go by milestones.
The fact is you did not do your research thoroughly. I doubt you even read their prospectus in full. Did you compare their orderbook 6 months ago vs now? Are you aware of their book-to-bill? Did you even bother checking their main customer's progress and plans?
2019-06-19 06:10
Demand>supply means share price go up. Doesn't mean it has to be backed by fundamentals or anything. From the beginning, I leave it to readers to decide what they want to do with this stock because I know equipment makers do trade at premium valuation at current environment (doesn't mean I have to agree on that). So share price could go higher and stay high for a while (which it did, at least for now).
I'm not judging the buyers or sellers. But just that they should be aware of the actual situation. If they are aware and they decide to buy/sell, at least that would be an informed decision. Everyone can have different reasons for their decision, that should give you comfort when you bought and share price go down or when you sold and share price go up.
2019-06-19 06:14
===>> csan And please, we don't meet management by going to AGMs, taking the mic and asking questions. We meet them face to face, call them, message them etc. I just messaged the CEO to verify if rumours that there are zero future deliveries to Vietnam are true and he said "nonsense" lol. He maintained what he said during the last meeting.
18/06/2019 7:00 PM
I work for First Solar and I can assure you that the delivery for Vietnam has been completed several months ago. The two plants in Vietnam are in full production ramp - no additional production line installation. csan - you should really do your own homework rather than believing what MGMT is telling you.
2019-06-19 12:12
Accrual accounting means recognise as you deliver. Once delivered, can recognise because risk and reward is substantially transferred to customer. Of course recognise as each machine part is delivered, not after delivery of whole machine. But what u said was recognise upon receipt of purchase order ...which is never the case.
2019-06-19 16:59
The thin film PV maker reported solid year-end 2018 results, with future bookings extending out four years and the fourth of five Series 6 factories already online.
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/02/21/first-solar-is-sitting-pretty/
2019-06-19 17:14
@csan ya next time just ignore this of analyst. Never focus on good sides and long term perspective.
2019-06-19 18:19
When the lower tool deliveries to First Solar is reflected in Q2 or Q3, then Greatech will go below 70 sen.
When the tool deliveries to the 5th factory, i.e. Ohio S6 factory 2 is finished (probably by year end) and no order from new solar factory (or new order not in time to fill the gap), then Greatech may go below 50 sen !!
.... and this is just CONSERVATIVE prediction !!
Previously I predicted that comcorp will go below 20 sen, and today comcorp is at 7.5 sen !!
-----------
Posted by skyrider > Mar 21, 2018 9:08 PM | Report Abuse X
If a few negative qtrs without BCM contributions, it may even go below 20 sen!
20/06/2019 8:09 AM
2019-06-20 08:28
just found out from someone in i3 that seekingalpha888 is the same person as Jay! hahaha so desperate to defend yourself and save face until must use fictitious account.
meanwhile Greatech is booming.
2019-06-20 15:37
@csan now seems like not only you have a work ethic problem, but character as well. that someone in i3 is yourself isn't it hahaha? why don't you confirm with i3 admin if seekingalpha888 is the same person as me? or use whatever digital means like IP address etc.? I'm more than willing to bet any amount of money with you on that.
On a more serious note, slander and lies show one's character. You may lie to all the people part of the time, and part of the people all the time, but not all the people all the time. eventually you have to pay your dues.
maybe money has blinded you to do whatever it takes, but mark my words, a morally bankrupt person more often than not also ends up financially bankrupt. Maybe not instantly, but it could always be just round the corner.
Hope that you might still change while you are young.
2019-06-20 17:45
Sorry jay/seekingalpha888...but you have been wrong for greatech. Or maybe not ...maybe you were right....maybe you collected some today at 92sen....that's morally bankrupt.
2019-06-20 17:50
@csan well, I guess you are like the Chinese saying, "a dog can't change from eating shit"
Since you doubled down on your lies, why don't we bet your Greatech profit on them? I'll even give you odds of 10 to 1
1. I'm not seekingalpha888
2. I did not buy any Greatech shares
If you can prove any of the above otherwise, your Greatech profit grows tenfold. Otherwise, you only lose that amount. I'm sparing your capital. Isn't that wonderful?
But to all i3 readers, no money in guessing right a liar will only find an excuse to back out.
Too bad this is an online forum where people can hide behind their PC. It would be fun to see one's reaction when they were caught lying on the spot.
2019-06-20 18:05
1. it will be proven in next QR when we see that vietnam contributed to their revenue.
2. easy to prove by looking at your analysis. in particular (1) revenue recognised the minute purchase order given and (2) RM150 million revenue in 2019. RM150 million revenue in 2019 means Q419 revenue will be around... RM0? or RM10 million?
the analysis by you only leads to 1 of 2 possible conclusions - either sour grape analysis as someone mentioned earlier or trying to desperately push down by fooling some retailers so that you can collect.
2019-06-20 19:00
Earlier I said Greatech lower tools delivery to First Solar may reflect in Q2 or Q3 2019, but after read the pv magazine 22th Feb 2019 article which said Vietnam S6 factory 2 is coming online in first 2 months of 2019:-
"The manufacturer appears to be on top of its game and has completed the bulk of its transition to the new, large-format Series 6 module, with its second factory in Vietnam coming online in the first two months of this year, "
(https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/22/first-solar-is-sitting-pretty/)
then I would expect revenues for Vietnam S6 factory 2 would have been largely (if not completely) recognised by Q1 2019.
So from Q2 2019 onward, revenue most likely can be recognised only for ONE factory, which is the Ohio S6 factory 2 (Note that in year 2018, revenue were recognised for FOUR factories at the same time !!) So expect to see some shocking result in Q2.
Look like 70 sen is coming by August .......... meantime have fun !!!
2019-06-22 02:19
.... so is 70 sen the final destination ? don't think so.
After the shocking Q2 bring the price to 70 sen, it will slowly slide to 50 sen by Q4 because Q3 and Q4 will still only have revenue recognised from one First Solar factory, that is the Ohio S6 factory 2.
By Q4, Ohio S6 factory 2 would have come online, so by Q4, revenue for Ohio S6 factory 2 would have been fully recognised.
"As the company moved into this year it expected shipments to pick up as factories ramp. First Solar’s new 1.2 GW fab in Ohio is not set to come online until the end of the year but when it does, it will give the business more than 7 GW of annual capacity, ..."
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/22/first-solar-is-sitting-pretty/
and if by Q1 2020, still no new order from First Solar, then Q1 2020 result will be ugly and Greatec will dive well below 50 sen after Q1 announced (that, I supposed, is the worst case scenario) !!
2019-06-22 15:18
hi jay. maybe you'd like to admit now that you're the dog that cannot stop eating shit?
what a beauty to be able to look back in time to judge.
you're obviously young, amateurish, unable to take criticism and too egoistic. maybe you've become better or you'll get better....not sure...
2020-02-23 02:46
I am not frequenting i3 anymore but I felt responsible to respond to your naive comment for other readers' sake.
1. Look closer at Greatech's revenue, it has been dropping for every quarters since IPO. so I was not wrong when I highlighted that orderbook/revenue is dwindling. Profit still held up ok, partly because of reversal of warranties.
2. Share price has done extremely well. This is a fact. But why? Did it report outrageously good numbers? Or any significant newsflow? Answer is no and no.
So what actually happens is so-called PE rerating (in simple terms, people keep chasing the share price when profit does not grow as fast, so PE keep getting higher). Currently they are making ~RM12m a quarter which means the current trailing PE is more than 40x. Even if assume 30% growth, forward PE is ~33x.
I have already highlighted in the ending of my article that I am only interested in the financials, the readers have to decide for themselves what PE does Greatech deserve and derive their own TP. If from the beginning you think that Greatech deserves 40x PE then good for you.
3. Which begs the question, is Greatech's valuation fair or is that irrational exuberance? For reference, its valuation is higher than Vitrox, Pentamaster etc. So Greatech is better than these guys? Of course they are not all 100 %comparable but they do operate in similar space. Time will tell if Greatech is as good/even better than the other equipment makers.
4. @csan I don't know your age and I'm not interested in that either. I'm not young for a long time but throughout my years, I have learned that age has very little to do with knowledge and experience (if you understand).
You may think that I always have a response to all criticism, that's not because I can't take it, it's simply that most of those criticism are flawed (including yours unfortunately). There's no rational argument, no valid basis, all they resort to is shouting, name calling, try to justify everything by share price movement (like you) without bothering to understand the thought process.
Justifying everything by outcome is dangerous, especially over long term. E.g. if you make money over money game, is money game a good investment, or are you a genius? Yes you can justify by saying the outcome trumps all, but keep repeating that, I assure you there's no happy ending. (to be clear, Greatech is not money game, in case people get sensitive)
Many people in this forum kept making low probability and bad risk to reward trades. Occasionally they might hit 1 or 2 winners, but overall they will only be poorer if they keep repeating it. But some people will only cheer that 1 or 2 winners and boast to others, which is fine if it soothes your ego, but I find it disturbing when it influences more people to go down that same path.
As for your concern, yes I'm getting better day by day. Despite not buying Greatech, I have multipled my retirement pot multiple fold in just last few years. But I will always keep learning. Not sure if you are doing the same but good luck.
2020-02-23 09:22
Btw, I'm pretty sure you are not aware that First Solar just reported their results two days ago. If you invest in Greatech yet don't even keep track of Greatech's single largest customer (>80% revenue), I have nothing to say but only again wish you good luck
2020-02-23 09:32
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Quality analysis, good job!
2019-06-17 23:03