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Stock market success.......luck or skill and hard work?
Stock market success.......luck or skill and hard work?
As Nassim Taleb wrote in Fooled by Randomness, “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”
In stock market , skill and labor can bring the practitioner some measure of success relative to peers who are lazy and lacks practise.
But wild success is attributable to variance or the luck factor. Like the two tails of a bell curve in a random series. Luck ( or variance ) alone can generate exceptional results. But luck ( or variance ) is not repeatable and is not consistent. On the other hand, mild success or slow gradual success which is better that the peers can be explained by application of knowledge, skill and labor.
In layman language , wild success is achieved from excessive risk taking which can also produce results opposite from the desired results.
Stock market success....knowledge or skill?
Knowledge can help you to avoid huge mistakes but knowledge alone is not skill. Skill comes from constant practise, comes from choices and habits. Knowledge without practice is like the guy who reads some investment books and offers himself as stock market sifu. Not much use.
That leads to the proposition:
Absolute success is luck. Relative success is choices and habits.
Absolute Success is Luck. Relative Success is Hard Work.
nice article.....
https://jamesclear.com/luck-vs-hard-work
extracts:
Absolute Success vs. Relative Success
One way to answer this question is to say: Luck matters more in an absolute sense and hard work matters more in a relative sense.
The absolute view considers your level of success compared to everyone else. What makes someone the best in the world in a particular domain? When viewed at this level, success is nearly always attributable to luck. Even if you make a good initial choice—like Bill Gates choosing to start a computer company—you can’t understand all of the factors that cause world-class outcomes.
As a general rule, the wilder the success, the more extreme and unlikely the circumstances that caused it. It's often a combination of the right genes, the right connections, the right timing, and a thousand other influences that nobody is wise enough to predict.
As a general rule, the wilder the success, the more extreme and unlikely the circumstances that caused it.
Then there is the relative view, which considers your level of success compared to those similar to you. What about the millions of people who received similar levels of education, grew up in similar neighborhoods, or were born with similar levels of genetic talent? These people aren't achieving the same results. The more local the comparison becomes, the more success is determined by hard work. When you compare yourself to those who have experienced similar levels of luck, the difference is in your habits and choices.
Absolute success is luck. Relative success is choices and habits.
There is an important insight that follows naturally from this definition: As outcomes become more extreme, the role of luck increases. That is, as you become more successful in an absolute sense, we can attribute a greater proportion of your success to luck.
As Nassim Taleb wrote in Fooled by Randomness, “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 40 of 40 comments
Posted by Goh Kim Hock > Sep 23, 2018 02:08 AM | Report Abuse
go watch 大時代.
========
got a better idea...watch Jho Low in Billion $ Whale.....
2018-09-23 02:24
knowledge + hard work × skils = success
Lacking of any component = LUCK counts (to compensate inadequacy)
(knowledge + hard work × skils = PROFIT$$$$$$$
Lacking of any componenT......yet with no luck = LO$$)
2018-09-23 08:36
Success 80% perspiration & 20% inspiration mah....!!
Luck play a smaller part in long run loh....!!
2018-09-23 11:06
yes go to jail also easy if u join the dark force loh...!!
Posted by 5354 > Sep 23, 2018 11:22 AM | Report Abuse
Jho Low make easier money than those playing stocks?
2018-09-23 11:23
knowledge-vs-skill
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/09/knowledge-vs-skill/
“Only the disciplined ones in life are free. If you are undisciplined, you are a slave to your moods and your passions.” – Eliud Kipchoge
2018-09-23 11:29
Joe Low is a very accomplished practitioner of the dark force.
and Najib is a useful idiot.
2018-09-23 11:34
MY stock market winners mostly from INSIDER INFO. Mostly gamble at short term. long term investors a few only. BS pretend blind only ma. wakaka
2018-09-23 11:35
buy jackpot 4d better, low entry cost, high potential upside. waste time study bursa with these theory but apa. waste time n bodoh?
2018-09-23 13:01
cheoky > Sep 23, 2018 01:01 PM | Report Abuse
buy jackpot 4d better, low entry cost, high potential upside. waste time study bursa with these theory but apa. waste time n bodoh?
=============
I got a better idea....study Billion $ whale and learn how Joe Low did it.....
2018-09-23 13:03
so can say u still bodoh, I pandai?? i can sleep and mimpi 4digits & act on it. u still so much waste time and eyeball energy go study? in the end, we both bank on luck for windfall.
2018-09-23 13:14
Posted by cheoky > Sep 23, 2018 01:14 PM | Report Abuse
so can say u still bodoh, I pandai?? i can sleep and mimpi 4digits & act on it. u still so much waste time and eyeball energy go study? in the end, we both bank on luck for windfall.
================
windfall is luck....
mild success is hard work......
2018-09-23 13:16
bodoh go for mild success, smart aim for windfall per somebody preaching. somebody is claimed to be smart and a rank above all.
2018-09-23 13:22
that is what I am saying, smart and hard work can only give you mild success.......
but Joe Low strategy gives u wild success...biggest heist in history.
2018-09-23 13:26
Good luck are those with pair of Buddha ear! You can go to Korea and get yours! But i strongly discourage you to get them fix in China! You may end up with big gweilo ears instead! You know what happen to gweilo aka Jho Low!
2018-09-23 13:35
Our problems is Bursa head and bankers(why list pariah or so many counters that even EPF, PNB, KWAP avoid buying) not foreign funds not coming here because to them M'sia is oversea countries they have choice not necessarily must come here to invest. They have so many countries they can choose to invest beside their own country.
2018-09-23 14:11
The key principles describing why value investing works are summarised as below,
1. Price is not value
2. Mr. Market is a crazy guy
3. Every stock has an intrinsic value
4. Only buy with a margin of safety
5. Diversification is the only free lunch
The key principles of value investing are plausible. Value investing follows a process. It works most of the time and over a long period of time. However, it doesn’t mean it works all the time. At least, it works better than all the alternatives I can think of.
It is extremely hard to instil value investing to old dogs and “lazy controllers” like the ones below, and make them understand what value investing is and its simple concepts, despite after doing it repeatedly. If so, pig can fly.
2018-09-23 14:16
Bullies look for people with no balls....
And Trump is nothing if not a bully.
too bad Trump choose wrong victim in China.
2018-09-23 14:31
MUST PLP TAIKO USA LOH....100 YRS OF TAIKO USA....CANNOT IMMEDIATELY GO AWAY JUST BCOS OF SOME TRADE WARS...BETTER TALK TO USA FOR A WIN WIN SETTLEMENT....A BETTER OPTION THAN SIMPLY FIGHT LOH....!!
DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE SUPER POWER OF USA LOH....!!
2018-09-23 14:41
qqq3 > Sep 23, 2018 03:02 PM | Report Abuse X
the perfect victim for bullies are people with no balls........and Trump is nothing if not a bully...and raider would make a perfect victim.
2018-09-23 15:04
trump do not bully raider on the contrary support general raider mah...how could raider be victim leh ??
On balls ?? Trump had biggest balls compare to all USA president loh....!!
The rest of president had no balls to fight for own conviction to fight for their & usa cause unlike trump the outstanding one loh...!!
Posted by qqq3 > Sep 23, 2018 03:02 PM | Report Abuse
the perfect victim for bullies are people with no balls........and Trump is nothing if not a bully...and raider would make a perfect victim.
2018-09-23 15:10
ted by qqq3 > Sep 23, 2018 03:11 PM | Report Abuse X
I don't like Law of the jungle to win....
and I don't think Trump will win.
2018-09-23 15:12
within short term trump is scoring & winning mah....!!
Open your eye lah....!!
2018-09-23 15:28
In order to success in a stock market,
Of course skill & knowledge lah ?
Luck never the key.
But, i can see many newbies just want to play contra or quick money, and never want to learn investing seriously... this is nothing different from purely gambling.
Some loosers even trying to comfort themself through spreading how good his skill by contra.
I trust he must be lost a lot.
Problem is they never want to learn the proper investing skill but choose to bluffing all day n nite .
I saw it this happenings for the pass 2 years in i3, by reading their comments i can tell what they have been through and why they behave it that way ?
2018-09-23 22:26
I also punting sometimea, but definitely not playing contra.
By bottome line is only play swing when trade opportunity surface.
This will required focus...
1 can observe there are few sifus in i3, who has the disipline & skill.
Not to mentione their name, but u may find they have relatively high changes of win.
U may trying to observe these sifu at comfort/skp/dayang/vsi/ ...
This are few i can say.
2018-09-23 22:38
In short, short term are tricky trades most of the times.
Long term required patient and keeping track with each development.
I trust no one really want to expose their short term trade in real time.
2018-09-23 22:43
Luck is only for those who prepare for it. means you still need the hard work. if every day by 9am only you decide which to punt then bursa just a casino for you and matter of time you will have all your capital wipe off
2018-09-24 13:03
actually everything depends on luck when looking at the bigger picture,
to get the right knowledge and skill, one needs to be exposed to the right stuff, at the same time having the exact interest, motivation and time to develop.
...and the development of interest and motivation towards certain thing are not something one can choose to begin with...either it comes or it fades, u can't do shit.
2018-09-24 13:30
This is top articles ? I rate this as stupid article, wasting time to read. F*ck
2018-09-24 14:04
ignorance and arrogance can also produce a lot of profits....at times. But we all know this is not sustainable.
Everyone has been trying to find a more sustainable way, no one has perfected it. If one is found, it will soon be broken by others.
okh....this article not just about luck or skill and hard work? But “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”
So, don't be too seduced by people who shows you super duper records especially ones based on ignorance and arrogance.
2018-09-25 22:20
stock market can be like fighting an enemy with no form.
ignorance and arrogance is easy
but the more you know, the more you know you don't know. can be very frustrating.
2018-09-25 22:43
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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https://jamesclear.com/luck-vs-hard-work
2018-09-23 01:20