*****

Phil Fisher: Growth Stocks vs. Cigar-Butt Stocks

qqq3
Publish date: Thu, 24 Jan 2019, 01:04 PM
qqq3
0 148
"people want to invest, they want to be successful.......they need to have big dreams, and grit....and of course, knowledge and mind set."
Following Message

Phil Fisher: Growth Stocks vs. Cigar-Butt Stocks

Why high-quality companies outperform in the long term

December 05, 2018 | About: IBM +0% DWDP +0%
 

Philip Fisher kicked off chapter four of “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings” by challenging the the use of “accounting-statistical” analysis to choose stocks.

In referring to “statistical” stocks, he appeared to be referencing what Benjamin Graham characterized as bargains or what Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) called “cigar-butt” stocks (every discarded cigar butt has a few puffs left in it). They may be bargains, but Fisher believed they also faced real troubles. He further argued that those coming business troubles would not be discernible, based on a purely statistical analysis. Ultimately, they would prove to be expensive, despite being bargains at the time of purchase.

 

this thing so good, need to be achived.

 

 

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/781497/phil-fisher-growth-stocks-vs-cigarbutt-stocks

 

More articles on *****
some observations and some myths.

Created by qqq3 | Oct 29, 2019

Dayang did well in 2019.............

Created by qqq3 | Oct 25, 2019

Portfolio as at 22 Oct 2019

Created by qqq3 | Oct 22, 2019

my portfolio as at 7 Oct 2019

Created by qqq3 | Oct 07, 2019

my portfolio as at 1 Oct 2019

Created by qqq3 | Oct 01, 2019

If You Want To Get Rich, Invest Like Google, Not Warren Buffett

Created by qqq3 | Sep 28, 2019

Government of the people, for the people by the people............Malaysia, China.

Created by qqq3 | Sep 25, 2019

Companies benefiting from tarifs on China...........................................

Created by qqq3 | Sep 23, 2019

if HK don't reform and love mother land...poverty and extinction awaits them.

Created by qqq3 | Sep 18, 2019

Investing basics.......and oil crisis

Created by qqq3 | Sep 17, 2019

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 12 of 12 comments

qqq3

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/781497/phil-fisher-growth-stocks-vs-cigarbutt-stocks

2019-01-24 13:05

stockraider

U NEED TO UNDERSTAND PEOPLE LIKE 3iii AND MR Long ABUSE THE TEACHING OF PHILIP FISHER LOH....!!

FISHER SAYS BUY QUALITY GROWTH STOCK AT FAIR VALUE N NOT OVERVALUE MAH....!!
FISHER WILL BE SHOCKED OF HIS FOLLOWERS CHASING STOCK AT PE 50X LOH..!!

Posted by stockraider > Jan 24, 2019 01:03 PM | Report Abuse X

Corrections
3iii need to reread n reinterpret what benjamin says loh...!!

" He also observed that the greatest losses result not from buying quality at an excessively high price, but from buying Low Quality at a price that seems good value."

1. Buying quality at excessive price does Graham means counter like nestle and Ql at excessive PE 50x leh ??

2. Buying low quality at a low price that deem good value leh ??
THATS IS PRECISELY WHY RAIDER SOLD INSAS AT ABOVE RM 1.10 WHEN ITS NTA ABOUT RM 1.70 AND PE 15X LOH....THAT RAIDER SEE NOT ENOUGH MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH.....!!

GOOD VALUE MEANS HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY NOT ONLY SEEMS GOOD VALUE MAH...!!
TODAY INSAS INARI INVESTMENT AT 19% HOLDING ALREADY EXCEED THE WHOLE MKT CAPITALIZATION OF INSAS.
INSAS IS TRADING AT PE 6X WITH NET CASH HOLDING OF RM 300M PLUS DIV OF 3% PA YIELD EXCEEDING NESTLE FIV YIELD OF 2.5% PA.
MOST OBVIOUS ITS NTA RM 2.54 V SHARE PRICE OF RM 0.70 LOH...!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 24, 2019 12:45 PM | Report Abuse

calvintan

Based on my observation is a poor practitioner of value investing by Benjamin Graham.

Many in this forum has commented similarly.

He needs to re-read and reformulate his strategy.

Benjamin Graham, the founding father of value investing, was the first to recognize the quality problem among equities back in the 1930s.

- Graham classified stocks as either Quality or Low Quality.
- He also observed that the greatest losses result not from buying quality at an excessively high price, but from buying Low Quality at a price that seems good value.

Warren Buffett said that one wants to buy companies that can be run by idiots, because some day they will be.

2019-01-24 13:10

3iii

Pity Mr Long. Getting bashed by stockraider for sharing.

2019-01-24 14:02

stockraider

AS I SAY B4 I DO NOT BASHED GROWTH INVESTOR LOH....AS I MYSELF ALSO INVEST ON QUALITY GROWTH STOCK TOO MAH...!!

BUT I WANT PEOPLE TO BE CLEAR THAT THE MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT IS ANOTHER SAFE & RELIABLE ROUTE TO INVESTMENT RICHEST MAH....!!

IT SEEMS THAT GROWTH INVESTORS HAD BEEN BASHING THE VALUE INVESTORS..RAIDER BEING FAIR & TRUTHFUL CAME OUT TO DEFEND THEM MAH..!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 24, 2019 02:02 PM | Report Abuse

Pity Mr Long. Getting bashed by stockraider for sharing.

2019-01-24 14:09

3iii

>>>
stockraider AS I SAY B4 I DO NOT BASHED GROWTH INVESTOR LOH....AS I MYSELF ALSO INVEST ON QUALITY GROWTH STOCK TOO MAH...!!

BUT I WANT PEOPLE TO BE CLEAR THAT THE MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT IS ANOTHER SAFE & RELIABLE ROUTE TO INVESTMENT RICHEST MAH....!!

IT SEEMS THAT GROWTH INVESTORS HAD BEEN BASHING THE VALUE INVESTORS..RAIDER BEING FAIR & TRUTHFUL CAME OUT TO DEFEND THEM MAH..!!
>>>



Sounds a bit paranoid.

Hengyuan 15 buy huge margin of safety target price 45

Hengyuan today 5+


Raider should have apologised.

"To my followers, I apologise. I was wrong."

2019-01-24 14:14

stockraider

Raider already says is a mistake based on hindsight today mah...!!

Lessons

Pls do not trust growth in EPS and low PE so much loh...!! Earnings can unexpected collapse very fast anytime loh...!!

The margin of safety based on Earnings and growth is very volatile like the case of Hengyuan PE 5x v Nestle 50x and Ql 50x, in addition Hengyuan growth 200% v Nestle & Ql growth less than 20%....u thought Hengyuan got very big fat margin of safety based on earnings and growth...but this type of margin of safety based on earnings can collapse and disappear very fast loh...!!

In fact this condition of collapse again confirmed by the recent collapse of padini and topglove, share price fall drastically recently bcos of earnings disappointment again mah...!!

So do not listen to conman 3iii asking u all to buy NESTLE Pe 50x or high growth stock at lofty valuation....anytime the earnings can collapse very fast without warnings like what happen to hengyuan, topglove and padini loh...!!

Thats the reason why Ben Graham in the intelligent investor book, do not give too much emphasis on investment based on margin of safety using earnings based on profitability and growth route, but he prefer to use margin of safety based on huge discount on tangible assets and huge cash liquidity of the company with the huge share price discount bcos this tenet is less volatile & tangible and esy to employ loh...!!

It is not that u cannot invest based on growth and earnings route, in fact raider would encourage u do it bcos it is highly profitable loh...anyhow if u invested in hengyuan earlier, u will had made a huge profit unseen for many years, but u must act smart & be prepare to lari kuat kuat loh...!!

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Raider is right to advice u to lari kuat kuat on hengyuan...in fact everyone should learn how to lari kuat kuat ....when condition & environment does not look right mah...!!



Posted by 3iii > Jan 24, 2019 02:14 PM | Report Abuse

Sounds a bit paranoid.

Hengyuan 15 buy huge margin of safety target price 45

Hengyuan today 5+


Raider should have apologised.

"To my followers, I apologise. I was wrong."

2019-01-24 14:18

3iii

>>> Posted by stockraider > Jan 24, 2019 02:18 PM | Report Abuse

Raider already says is a mistake based on hindsight today mah...!! <<<




How many who followed your advice are now working for ahfah in Selayang?

2019-01-24 14:20

stockraider

ahfah is safe bcos she lari kuat kuat listen to raider loh....she has bounce back into buying insas recently loh..!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 24, 2019 02:20 PM | Report Abuse

>>> Posted by stockraider > Jan 24, 2019 02:18 PM | Report Abuse

Raider already says is a mistake based on hindsight today mah...!! <<<

How many who followed your advice are now working for ahfah in Selayang?

2019-01-24 14:23

3iii

Why did you say you will be holding Hengyuan for-ever when you bought back at 12?

Very dangerous. Were you high on something?

2019-01-24 14:24

stockraider

did i can u pinpoint can't remember loh ??

Posted by 3iii > Jan 24, 2019 02:24 PM | Report Abuse

Why did you say you will be holding Hengyuan for-ever when you bought back at 12?

Very dangerous. Were you high on something?

2019-01-24 14:27

3iii

Of course, you did.

But I do not remember you telling them that you made a mistake.



By the way, KYY said he was saved by his margin call. You too came out soon after with the same reason/excuse.


raider, now that you said you cannot remember. Were your initial postings truthful? Perhaps, you posted so many and the truths get mixed up with your untruths, and thus, you cannot remember.


Never mind. You were never my source of inspiration.

Thank you for all the interactions. Please be kind and be humble, if you can.

2019-01-24 14:34

stockraider

Post removed.Why?

2019-01-24 14:46

Post a Comment