Still capped within the possible long-term “Triangle” consolidation. Today we are revisiting the precious metal’s long-term price trend. After a sharp spike that took place between 3 Dec 2015 and 6 Jul 2016 (price range: USD1,045.40-USD1,380.90), the commodity has been trading in a possible long-term “Triangle” consolidation formation over 33 months. The commodity came near to test the upper trend line of the said possible “Triangle” recently – before retracing (short-term negative). Provided the said upper trend line still holds, chances are high that the commodity would remain trapped in this long-term consolidation zone.

For now, we are keeping our shortterm negative trading bias until signs of the recent retracement reaching an end appear. We continue to recommend traders stay in short positions. We initiated these positions at USD1,291.30, the closing level of 12 Apr. For risk management purposes, a stop-loss can now be placed at the breakeven level.

Immediate support is set at USD1,270.30, which was the high of 20 Dec 2018. The second support is at USD1,236.50, the low of 14 Dec 2018. Moving up, the immediate resistance is expected at USD1,330.80, which was the high of 25 Mar. This is followed by USD1,349.80, ie the high of 20 Feb.

Source: RHB Securities Research - 22 Apr 2019