save malaysia!
Economists split on whether Bank Negara will cut key rate on May 7
savemalaysia
Publish date: Fri, 03 May 2019, 07:15 PM
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's central bank is likely to cut its benchmark rate to 3% at a policy review on Tuesday to cope with a slowdown in growth, a slim majority of analysts in a Reuters poll said.
Seven of 13 economists polled see a 25 basis point rate cut while the other six said Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) would hold its overnight policy rate unchanged for now.
Malaysia last cut its policy rate in July 2016, to 3.00 percent after Britain voted for Brexit. The rate was raised to 3.25 percent in January 2018 to "normalise" policy.
Malaysia's economy could use help from a more accommodative monetary policy as it faces persistent risks to trade, along with "anaemic investment spending", according to ING economist Prakash Sakpal.
"Being ahead of the curve should allow sufficient time for the impact of monetary easing to trickle down to the real economy, thus preparing the economy to ride the slowdown trend. It won’t hurt that there is scope for easing now," Sakpal said, noting soft inflation.
In March, the central bank cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 4.3-4.8 percent from an initial forecast of 4.9 percent, and projected a significant drop in export expansion due to slowing global growth and the U.S.-China trade war.
Exports shrank a second consecutive month in March, declining 0.5 percent from a year earlier on weak demand for commodities.
In March, the consumer price index rose for the first time this year, gaining 0.2 percent from a year earlier. Analysts expect cost pressures to remain benign for the rest of 2019.
Two weeks ago, Morgan Stanley said Malaysia could see outflows of nearly $8 billion if its bonds are downgraded after a review by global index provider FTSE Russell.
On Friday, OCBC said when BNM makes its decision, low inflation "will have to be balanced against the recent uptick in the USD/MYR and news of the World Global Bond Index review and the omission of Emerging Market government and corporate bonds from the Norges Bank's Government Pension Fund Global fixed-income benchmark."
OCBC sees the key rate getting reduced to 3 percent in the third quarter, not now.
A rate cut on Tuesday would be a "tactical and pre-emptive" move to counter rising downside risks to the economy and benign inflationary outlook, Standard Chartered said in a note on Friday.
- Reuters
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 21 of 21 comments
Better cut interest rate down to 2% immediately!!
Why must cut interest rate?
ANSWER:
1) Singapore interest rate is only 1.2%
It encourages more people to buy stocks which give better yields. Spore REITS pay up to 5% yield.
2) Many houses and apartments in Malaysia are left unsold.
Cutting interest rate will help in affordability.
If more people can buy houses it will spur development
3) Many businesses are facing challenges from China, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and other competing nations for exports.
By cutting interest rates Malaysian exporting companies will be able to compete
SO THERE IS MORE BETTER BENEFIT FROM CUTTING INTEREST RATES THAN RAISING IT
For Malaysia to get back into focus better don't just cut to 3%
CUT DOWN TO 2% BETTER
IF CAN CUT DOWN TO 1% EVEN BEST
MALAYSIA WILL THEN BE SUPER COMPETITIVE IN EXPORTS
FOR THIS YEAR WHILE CHINA IS UP 30% & MANY OTHER COUNTRIES UP 15% TO 20%
MALAYSIA IS THE ONLY LAGGARD NOT PERFORMING
2019-05-04 16:51
to datuk calvin
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2019/05/05/johor-has-the-most-unsold-properties-in-the-nation/
2019-05-05 13:50
If cut, can take a look at glove counters for short term Punting
2019-05-05 13:51
Dear Datuk Calvin, MY and SG in different situation. SG is one of world finance centre, can tap into credit easily at cheap cost, without affecting SGD. MY is still having non-stop outflow, 1 year after Pakatun as new govt- MYR is very weak, pulled down each time interest lower down. SG income per capita much higher than MY, thus demand for property holding up well. MY lousy MYR, cause beyond affordability many commoners to get finance to own property causing slump, glut here. Even if MY interest cut to zero no point when access to finance very hard in MY now
2019-05-05 14:05
Many flock to China and Thailand bourse now since MY keep focus to defend god i/o MYR ma. God is very powerful but need religion hero to defend ma. Why? wakaka
2019-05-05 14:21
I see things differently
1. Malaysia is an exporting nation. So weak ringgit will help export
If Malaysian companies do well there will be jobs
2. Low interest helps both housing and businesses
3.The idea of less debt and balancing the budget at a time like this will only stifle growth. Debt to Capital is higher in China, Japan, USA and even Singapore.
4. See how Trump knowing US already in USD 16 Trillions debt has pushed it to USD 20 trillions
5. What is more important will be growth, jobs for all and ability to pay
6.Johor property glut could be resolved by these
A. Reduce Rm1 million threshold to only rm500,000 until glut is cleared. Since locals didn't take just open them to Singaporeans and others
B. Immediately build RTS. Too long talking and deliberating. Now cost only rm3. 5 billions or less. The benefit will far out weight the cost as 400,000 Malaysians working in Spore will immediately benefit.
Plus 5 million Sporeans will come shop and spend in Jb
C. Encourage China nationals to come buy Forest City without fear.
Think of how the Arabs made Dubai so successful
D. All the fears are unfounded. The need is so great yet so little real action
2019-05-05 18:43
Is rm3. 5 billions alot?
For 400,000 johoreans working in Singapore daily
Let's do the sum
3500000000 divides by 400,000
= Rm8750
If charge rm5.00 ticket from jb to woodland each way it will take only 2 years to recover all cost
You must also know Johor has a population growing near 2 millions
And Sporeans another 7 millions
AND Causeway is one of the busiest crossings on earth
So use your brain and calculate
2019-05-05 18:57
Also think further
Spore has the highest concentration of millionaires in the world counting per person to population. Billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg and Jim Rogers are Permament Residents as well as many others
If they start investing in Johor?
2019-05-05 18:59
Unker if rate until 1%, Apple Iphone very expensive liao lo, many people will cry. Maybe that time one Iphone will cost RM 10k... hahaha, many people will be angry and will go work overseas like this
2019-05-05 19:02
Rich Chinaman's money is haram ma. We chase them away from investing in Forest City. Without billionaires $$$ in our banking system unlike SG, how our MYR can strengthen? instead, we encourage, give citizenship easily to all poor Pinoy in Sabah, Indon, Bangla, wakaka
2019-05-05 19:24
Rich Chinaman's money is haram ma. We chase them away from investing in Forest City. Without billionaires $$$ in our banking system unlike SG, how our MYR can strengthen? instead, we encourage, give citizenship easily to all poor Pinoy in Sabah, Indon, Bangla, wakaka
2019-05-05 19:24
it's an open secret there are hundreds of billions illicit money hidden overseas by corrupted officers, which if brought back to our banking system, sure can strenghen MYR instantly, allowing easy access to credit to all commoners. All is KARMA and our own doing. wakaka
2019-05-05 19:35
Exactly!
Cut interest rate to rock bottom
Let ringgit devalue
Then open All Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak to Foreign FDI
Give 10 years tax holiday for high tech jobs for locals
In 30 years time Malaysia will overtake Shenzhen and whole world to be number champion economy
I think I can guarantee that
2019-05-05 20:04
It started with USA in the 1770s
USA AND CANADA ENCOURAGED IMMIGRATION FROM EUROPE BY GIVING GENEROUS TERMS AND EVEN FREE LANDS
EACH IMMIGRANT IS GIVEN 160 ACRES OF FREE LANDS
SO AMERICA AND CANADA BECAME GREAT
WHEN SINGAPORE GOT INDEPENDENCE IN 1965 IT HAS NO RUBBER TREE, TIN, PALM OIL OR WATER
IT OPENS ITS DOORS WIDE FOR FDI WITH MINIMAL TAXES
TODAY SINGAPORE IS A FIRST WORLD ECONOMY
1980 DENG XIO PENG OPENED SHENZHEN AS AN ECONOMIC HUB FOR FOREIGN FDI
TODAY SHENZHEN PROPERTY HAS OVERTAKEN HONG KONG
SO IF LEADERSHIP IS REALLY SERIOUS IN SEEING REAL GROWTH JUST OPEN THE DOOR WIDE FOR HIGH END FOREIGN FDI AND CUT RED TAPE TO THE BAREST MINIMUM
2019-05-05 20:37
Posted by apolloang > May 5, 2019 2:09 PM | Report Abuse
if cut RM VS USD will be 4.50-5.00 kambing soon
=======
Very true,
If cut Msia interest rate to 2% or 1%,
No foreigners will be interest ed to buy Msian Gov Bonds...
Then RM will drop to 1.00$US= Rm5.00.
My goodness, don't simply play with interest rate.
If can simply play interest rate, then anyone can become Bank Negara Governor loh.
2019-05-05 20:48
SO IF LEADERSHIP IS REALLY SERIOUS IN SEEING REAL GROWTH JUST OPEN THE DOOR WIDE FOR HIGH END FOREIGN FDI AND CUT RED TAPE TO THE BAREST MINIMUM
=======
This statement above, I agree la...
But don't simply play interest rate.
If can simply play interest rate, then I propose that person to be Bank Negara Governor lah.
2019-05-05 20:55
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Abolish GST is Pakatun's biggest mistake. now, has to take desperate measures cutting interest which may lead to MYR rated as junk bond. wakaka
2019-05-03 20:15