A total lockdown with stricter restrictions should be enforced for at least three months to bring down the number of Covid-19 infections in the country.

Medical experts believe this, coupled with an aggressive find, test, trace, isolate and support (FTTIS) system and the National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (NIP), could see the country having two-digit cases by September and returning to normality by early next year.

Epidemiologist Professor Datuk Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud cautioned that the total lockdown from June 1 to 14 as announced by the government on Friday would not achieve the desired results.

With the number of daily new infections breaching the 9,000 mark and the presence of newer and more virulent Covid-19 variants in the community, he said Malaysia required at least two to three months of "total lockdown" to contain the spread. 

He said even if the two-week lockdown was strictly enforced, it would still require eight to 12 weeks to bring the numbers down to a manageable level.

"The newer variants might have an infectious period longer than two weeks, possibly as long as 21 days. If we have a total lockdown for two to three months, infections will be confined to family members. There is no point in pussyfooting around, having a half-baked lockdown.

"If we do not take heed of the hard lessons that the past year and a half have taught us, we will squander whatever time we are buying with this lockdown, waste all the sacrifices that our frontliners have made and doom ourselves to repeating the very same mistakes that we made.

"There is no room for poor indecisive leadership and misplaced pride in this pandemic war," he told the New Sunday Times.

The Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry's Covid-19 Epidemiological Analysis and Strategies Task Force chairman said only Category 3 infections or worse should be treated in hospitals, while Category 1 or 2 patients should be isolated or quarantined at home and monitored remotely.

Dr Awang Bulgiba also called on the government to watch out for infections among workers, institute syndromic surveillance and better real-time data analysis, conduct more genomic surveillance, start scenario planning and revise the Pandemic Preparedness Plan with clear directions and strategies.

"Public health experts outside the Health Ministry should be given access to data and allowed to perform their own analysis.

"Double standards should not be allowed in the implementation of SOP as it leads to people losing trust and less likely to comply."

He said the NIP should be accelerated with 300,000 to 500,000 people vaccinated per day to achieve herd immunity by year-end.

"We need to vaccinate some 25 million more people. Assuming that we require two doses per person, that is 50 million doses. A rate of 300,000 doses per day means we need 167 consecutive vaccination days to achieve this, practically taking us to the end of the year."

He added that the government should provide support to the vulnerable during this lockdown.

"After a year, efforts into long-term preparations in these areas are frankly pathetic as there seems to be no realisation of the true magnitude of the problem."

Malaysian Public Health Physicians Association president Datuk Dr Zainal Ariffin Omar said the total lockdown should be enforced until the end of next month, followed by three months of strict Movement Control Order.

He said a two-week total lockdown was a "very minimum" period to combat the rapidly surging outbreak.

"We have reached a one-way track, where the only effective circuit breaker to bring down the number of cases is with a total lockdown. It is a do or die situation.

"Along with these, the authorities need to strengthen FTTIS and accelerate the NIP to see double digits by September.

"There must also be less negative political interference or manoeuvring as this is a health crisis, and decision-makers at the National Security Council, Health Ministry and Special Committee on Covid-19 Vaccine Supply Access Guarantee must make decisions based on scientific data.

"We must not repeat past mistakes, which saw the authorities easing restrictions too soon by allowing events, gatherings and people to return to their work routines.

"The government must have a good and effective plan with the goal of returning to normality by year-end or early 2022. So far, we have yet to see such a plan."

Dr Zainal cautioned that cases had yet to peak as the Hari Raya Aidilfitri clusters were only beginning to show.

Epidemiologist and biostatistician from Universiti Putra Malaysia Associate Professor Dr Malina Osman said at least three months of strict restrictions were required to reduce the number of cases to single- or double-digits to save the healthcare system and prevent more deaths.

"We need at least two weeks of full lockdown. This should be reviewed from time to time, where the assessment of the situation should consider those who are in hospitals and intensive care units, number of deaths, number of those fully immunised and the R naught value."

Dr Malina said slight changes in the policy by prioritising those in the economic sectors to be vaccinated earlier might help to reduce possible clusters at workplaces.

Manipal University College Malaysia's community and occupational medicine Professor Dr G. Jayakumar said a study published in the European Journal of Medical Research, which looked at 27 countries after 15 days of lockdown last year, showed that their daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 patients had declined significantly.

"The study found that lockdown policies should adhere to physical distancing and mask-wearing, as a lockdown alone will not be effective if people are non-compliant.

"However, these measures can have a negative impact on individuals, communities and societies by bringing social and economic life to a near stop."

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/05/694286/we-need-3-month-lockdown