KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's industrial production is expected to remain expansionary in coming months, benefitting from low base effect and sustained domestic spending.

Nevertheless, Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) said downside risks remain, stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflicts as well as rising concerns over the sluggish growth in China and weaker growth in the US.

"The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) slipped further into contraction in August at 49.5 from 49.7 in July.  

"While we continue to monitor global developments, we maintain our 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.0 per cent year on year (YoY)," HLIB said in a note.  

Meanwhile, Public Investment Bank Bhd (PublicInvest) said Malaysia's Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose by 5.3 per cent YoY in July, up from 5.0 per cent YoY in June.

This marked its seventh consecutive month of growth and outperforming market expectations of 4.5 per cent.

The firm said this performance was underpinned by robust expansions in the manufacturing sector at 7.7 per cent and electricity at 7.0 per cent, while the mining sector contracted by 5.0 per cent.

"Moving into the latter part of 2024, we anticipate the industrial sector to sustain its upward momentum, supported by firm domestic demand and a gradual recovery in global markets.

"Nonetheless, the outlook remains clouded by external demand risks, which could weigh on Malaysia's industrial output amid persistent global uncertainties," it said.

On GDP forecast, PublicInvest said with sustained positive growth drivers, the firm anticipates GDP could exceed the upper bound of the official target range.

"As a result, we expect the government to revise its 2024 GDP growth forecast upwards during the tabling of Budget 2025 on Oct 18, which could bolster investor confidence and create additional trade opportunities," it added.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/09/1104227/industrial-production-keep-expanding-coming-months-says-hlib