Value Investing

Lessons learned from a scary month of October 2014

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Publish date: Sat, 01 Nov 2014, 11:32 AM
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Value Investing & Joys of Compounding
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以下纯粹个人投资收集与记录,且本人非专业分析员,买卖亏盈自负。
The articles here solely the collection or opinion of the author and do not represent professional advice in investment

 

 

 

The U.S. stock market rallied on Friday, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average into record territory, after a surprise stimulus plan from the Bank of Japan was announced.

Some analysts noted that the recovery from the recent pullback, which sent the S&P 500 down nearly 8% early this month, was the second fastest recovery since 2010. The main benchmarks finished the week and the month higher.

The measures announced by Japan appeared to encourage investors, who have been looking for regions like Europe and Asia to take further steps toward boosting flagging growth, as the Federal Reserve wraps its own stimulus program.

The S&P 500 SPX, +1.17%   closed at a record high, having rung up a new closing high every month since June 2013, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The benchmark index gained 23.40 points, or 1.2%, to 2,018.05 on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.13%  also closed at a record level, having hit an intraday high in morning session. The blue-chip index rose 195.10 points, or 1.1%, to 17,390.52, and recorded its biggest weekly gain in nearly two years. The Dow swung wildly during October - moving triple-digits 16 times out of 23, but still ended the month higher.

The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.41%  rallied 64.60 points, or 1.4%, to 4,630.74 and closed at the highest level since March 2000.

source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-point-to-wall-street-rally-after-boj-surprise-2014-10-31?siteid=yhoof2

 

So what is there to learn from the almost-correction in the first half of the month? Zachary Karabell, head of global strategy for Envestnet notes, “there have been multiple periods like this in the past three or four years where there’s been huge amounts of volatility or churn and the headlines throughout each of those periods forecast all the dominoes falling...and then we kind of end up kind of in the same trend line we’ve been in.”

Karabell says this time is no different. “As long as there’s decent economic growth, and more than decent earnings growth, and some decent revenue growth on the part of companies, stocks are gonna go up,” he contends.

That, he says backs up his belief that for all the gnashing of teeth over the Fed, Yellen and company aren’t THE engine behind the markets but rather are one of many engines. As the QE liquidity program goes into storage the Bank of Japan announces the latest round of their own version and that, says Karabell, means there will always be enough global liquidity to go around.

So how do you play such a market? Don’t be a “trader” Karabell says. He believes once we crunch recent data we very well might find that rapid traders will under perform good old buy and hold investors. “I don’t think selling right now is necessarily the way to go unless you’re so convinced we’re gonna have the same patterns” we did earlier this month.

Sure, if you believe in your heart of hearts that stocks are headed back into correction territory then find a comfy chair and sit on the sidelines. If, however, you are like Karabell and believe the economic and earnings soil is rich enough to grow stocks then get invested, keep getting invested and sit tight.

It may not be exciting investing but it’s Karabell’s recipe for success.

source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-the-fear--s-p-500-handily-beat-it-s-october-average-145256262.html 

01 Nov 2014

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 10 of 10 comments

fortunebullz

Yes! This pattern is very unusually indeed! Deep correction of 1,000 points recovered and exceed in 2 weeks is something to really ponder! Usually deep correction takes 2 months! The bounce is certainly unseen in years!

2014-11-01 12:28

jaafar daud

klci dropped about 100 pts only.

2014-11-01 12:38

fortunebullz

I am talking about DOW not bursa! Bursa 100 points consider deep correction! Unless you want to see 1,000 points for bursa back in 1998!

2014-11-01 12:40

calvintaneng

Scary?

Yes! If you don't know.

Scared of the dark? The Unknown?

If you have light & knowledge. There is absolutely No Fear at All

You duty is to "Walk in the Light"

And "Be in the Know."

2014-11-01 14:56

lcwin

Yes Ks55 you are right in a way I went through the crash and still make a bit of money then, lost my job just got new mortgage to pay and Banks increase interest rate on my loan for no reason and want to take back my overdraft secure with my house. Talk about chain of bad luck.
SO best advice is go ahead to play but run like hell if anything is amiss. The market will alway be there, you cannot play if you lost everything. This 2 years I play aggressively but cut everything when the minor correction comes win or lose. Just buy back when the coast is clear. This latest oct correction I was unfortunated to hold an illiquid stock which I cannot sell off so make a loss but then if I didn't cut all the rest I will still be losing big right now.
See after the coast is clear buy those stock than have the best chance to rebounce and enjoy the harvest.
Kong hee fatt choy!

2014-11-02 01:00

SOP1

*****
klci 指数股以外的股票要创新高需要消化八月份庞大成量所造成的泛滥,要在几个月内突破是很不容易的任务。美国股市创新高让人产生信心,小心走得万年船。

2014-11-02 16:56

SOP1

*****
股价回弹了,好多人回来了,成交量上升了,是我找 sell on strength 好时机的价位时。

2014-11-02 17:33

Kevin Wong

Just stay invested in quality and/or fundamentally strong stocks. It's futile and foolish to try timing/outsmarting mart ups and downs. Invest for the long term using the methods and strategies of successful investors like Bogle, Buffett and Mobius. Imagine if one had stayed fully invested in Maybank, P Bank, MISC, Nestle, F&N, D Lady and yes must include a lemon, MAS - in one's portfolio since 1992. Maybe that's why those 3 are billionaires, not me!!

2014-11-02 18:33

leno

Post removed.Why?

2014-11-03 11:28

fatdatlo

Those who panic-sold in the midst of Oct correction period now regret liao...

2014-11-03 13:18

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