Stockman blogs

Sona warrants.....fantastic odds. ...BUY

stockmanmy
Publish date: Fri, 18 Mar 2016, 11:26 AM
Trade at your own risk. I am here only to vomit out my feelings

Sona , price 45 c                                                                    no of shares    1.4 billion

Sona warrants  5c conversion price 35c                             no of warrants  1.4 billion

warrant discount...5 c or 11%

EGM 30 April 2016 for shareholder vote on the QA.     refund value 47 c

Spac term to expire mid 2017. 

 

There is a major sell down of the warrants due to misleadings of risks and term of the Spac....this misunderstaning is an opportunity for you to make some money. 

 

-. selling down in case of No vote. 

If there is no QA at the end of the 3 years term exxpiring next year, the company will be liquidated and refund according to the terms. Warrants become zero value.

but......Even in the case of the a No vote, the Spac continues for another year as the 3 years term is not due until next year. 

- fear of a No vote in view of market talk of major arbitragers. ..

.The names Pacific Alliance and Credit Suize has been discussed. I believe Pacific Alliance and Credit Suize are both friendly parties for the following reasons.......they have been buying recently even when the arbitrage margin has almost disappeared.....more importantly, they have been buying the warrants too. That shows confidence and their intention to vote Yes. 

 

message from Sona on i3 forum.....

"We are an experienced management team and we are confident that informed and long-term investors understand the potential upsides: 

Stag Oilfield cost of production is currently ~US$30/bbl. Apart from the fact that we have plans to reduce this by 10-20%, many industry experts don’t expect oil prices to stay at these levels for long. It already hit historical lows recently and we all know that this is a cyclical industry. It is also important to understand that crude from Stag Oilfield is of a high quality and has historically traded at a premium to Brent (current premium is US$1.50 per barrel – rose to as much as US$6.00 previously). 

Stag Oilfield is currently producing (approx. 4,000 barrels a day currently, and we have plans to increase this) – providing us with immediate and continuing revenue and cash flow given that the effective date for us to assume revenue and risks is from June 2015. 

Finally, the equity IRR of more than 15% from the assets to be acquired far exceed the yield that the current cash yield that shareholders are getting if they argued on the short returns they could get based on today's market price. Not to mention the fact that liquidation would take many months. For just a few sen, would an investor prefer to wait (an unknown number of) months for a future sum of money that, as any financial person will tell you, is worth less than the equivalent numerical value today? 

When you are investing, you are always looking at the future returns. We are buying the assets significantly lower than what the independent valuer considers fair, our cost of production is low (and is already profitable when oil prices are at US$40) and the asset is situated in a proven oil basin and proven reserves with transparent and clear regulatory environment. We are going to increase production by expanding the current producing wells and our crude is a premium product with good demand as feedstock. 

We hope the info provided will help investors make an informed decision."

 

according to the terms, the resolution for the acquisition requires a Special resolution to be approved by at least 75% of the votes. Dissenting shareholders who are present and registered their dissents will be refunded. 

Most of the shareholders have been caught at much higher prices and unlikely they will vote No. 

A No vote means they have no more chance to recover their losses and further....no one really knows how long the liquidators will take before the refunds are executed. 

 

A Yes Vote come 30 March will likely see the share price move up from the depressed levels. A Yes vote will also see the warrant eventually trade at a normal premium instead of discount to the mother share. .....that means you got a good chance to see a 100% even 200% return on the 5c curently traded. 

 

 

Strong Buy. on an expected YES vote.................Sona Warrants. 

 

The timing is right. Its difficult for me to see the warrant going below 5 c before the Vote. 

 

 

 

 

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Be the first to like this. Showing 10 of 10 comments

sheep

haha, you buy you die...wakaka

2016-03-18 11:34

stockmanmy

2 weeks very fast. 2 weeks we know.

2016-03-18 11:46

Old90

Good BUY call there!

2016-03-18 12:11

solvent

Expiring at 29/07/2016.............not 2017. If this QA failed then gone case.

2016-03-18 12:13

Old90

If QA approved then it will be a HUGE GAIN.

2016-03-18 12:19

Desa20201956

its 29/7/2016....not 2017.

but begs the question why Pacific Alliance and Credit Suize buying so aggressively in recent weeks?

Do they buy because it is cheap and vote Yes or to vote No?

4 months to July and then 6 months to a year for the liquidators to work....

the only logical explanation is they will vote Yes.

2016-03-18 12:45

Ven Felix

It's aint cheap at all ! If, U were had done the calculation. Small holders will rather prefer for the cash.

2016-03-20 15:47

Ven Felix

Run ,, if the deal success . That's the only chance u have.

2016-03-20 15:48

Ven Felix

Desa / Stockmamy : KeinHing,( still under consolidation) is better.

2016-03-20 15:50

Desa20201956

CS and PA are indeed arbitragers.

no hope already.

sold all my warrants.

2016-03-22 19:15

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