We have been tracking most stocks in the major benchmark index components in the US, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australian stock markets since March 2009, issuing technical buy & sell calls on specific stocks when trading opportunities arise due to extreme oversold/overbought situations, buy & sell triggers on technical indicators or breakout incidents.

In addition, we began monitoring our buy & sell recommendations from October 2010, setting up tracking portfolios (issued and updated weekly in our foreign technical stock watch reports) for the respective markets with performance summary at the end of the table.

Portfolio Review for 1H2024

For 1H2024 under review (refer Table 1), most stock markets captured strong gains with US indices surging to all-time highs, fueled by rallies in key technology stocks due to the AI craze even as the Federal Reserve penciled in one interest rate cut in 2024, with a more aggressive four rate cuts for 2025 as inflation is seen to slow down sharply next year. The three key US indices climbed from 3.8% to 18.1%, Australia added 2.3%, Singapore gained 2.9% and Hong Kong rose 3.9%. For 2023, prominent double-digit gainers are Nasdaq (+43.4%), Japan (+28.2%), Taiwan (+26.8%), Germany (+20.3%), S&P500 (+24.2%), India and South Korea (+18.7%).

On the performance of our current recommended stock portfolios, the US portfolio added 2.8%, Hong Kong gained 3.9%, Singapore was up 4.0% while Australia climbed 11.4%. 

Outlook for 2H2024

Global Markets Wrap in 1H2024: So far in 2024, global equity markets have continued to perform well with no signs of exhaustion for the bulls. Other than a minor correction in April, markets have continued to move higher in defiance of significantly high global interest rates engineered by world central banks. Technology stocks are once again leading the way in the last quarter, with stocks representing the artificial intelligence space among the market leaders. Softer economic data in recent weeks also bolster the argument that investors may finally receive some welcome news on the much-anticipated rate cuts in 2024.

As we enter 2H2024: Looking forward, as has been the case for many months now, interest rates and the pace at which they may be cut over this year and next are likely to remain the key focus in the minds of investors. Despite markets proving somewhat “risk-on” in the opening months of the year, central bank committee members have continued to guide with a cautious tone, citing the possibly of re-inflation risk. Meanwhile, history also suggest that presidential election years tend to be good years for the financial markets. On average, stocks have risen 11.6% during presidential election years since 1926.

Our recommended trading strategy for 2H2024 is to stay focused on laggard stocks from the US, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia for recovery play.

The following is our outlook on the stock market benchmarks in the US, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia for 2H2024.

The US DJIA climbed from low of 37,122 (18 Jan) to a new all-time high of 40,077 (24 May) prior to closing at 39,118 for a 3.8% gain for 1H24. For 2H2024, the key US stock market barometer may consolidate on overbought conditions, with resistance at 42,000 and the 123.6%FP (44,108) to check gains, while key uptrend support is seen from the 200-week ma (33,926).

The S&P500 rallied from low of 4,682 (5 Jan) to a fresh record high of 5,523 (28 June) before settling at 5,460 for a strong 14.5% gain for 1H24. For 2H2024, key chart supports to watch will be the 50-week ma (4,812) and 100-week ma (4,426), while immediate upside hurdles will be from the 123.6%FP (5,809) and 138.2%FP (6,417).

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) rebounded from the 15-month low of 14,794 (22 Jan) to settle at 17,718 for a 3.9% gain for 1H24. In 2H2024, key chart supports to monitor will be the Oct 2022 low (14,597) and Oct 2008 low (10,676), while key overhead upside hurdle will be from the falling 200-week (21,801) moving average level.

The Singapore STI was range bound between low of 3,092 (14 Feb) and high of 3,355 (3 June) prior to closing at 3,332 for a 2.9% gain for 1H24. For 2H2024, key uptrend supports to watch remains the 200-week ma (3,147) and 61.8%FR (2,923), while key upside hurdles are from the May 2019 (3,415) and April 2015 (3,549) peaks.

The Australian stock market benchmark index bounced off the low of 7,322 (18 Jan) to hit a new record high of 7,910 (5 Apr) prior to ending 1H24 at 7,767 for a 2.3% gain. In 2H2024, key uptrend supports to watch will be the rising 100-day ma (7,279) and 200-day ma (7,134), while immediate overhead resistance will be the 138.2%FP (8,276) and 150%FP (8,716).

Top Stock Picks for US, Hong Kong, Singapore & Australia for 2H2024

We append below the top 2 stock picks for the US, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australian markets, with corresponding charts, upside targets, key supports and trading views for 2H2024. The lower table shows the Bloomberg consensus price targets and key fundamental statistics.

On our stock pick for 2H2024, we have fresh buy calls on Salesforce Inc. and Intel Corp. from U.S, Cosco Shipping Ports Ltd. and AIA Group Ltd. from Hong Kong, Wilmar International Ltd. and Keppel Ltd. from Singapore, Computershare Ltd. and Qantas Airways Ltd. from Australia for recovery play ahead.

Company’s Profile: Salesforce, Inc. is a provider of customer relationship management (CRM) technology. The Company's Customer 360 platform spans sales, service, marketing, commerce, collaboration, integration, artificial intelligence, analytics, automation, and others. It connects customer data across systems, applications and devices to create a complete view of customers. The Company also enables third parties to use its platform and developer tools to create additional functionality and applications that run on the Company’s platform.

Salesforce Inc. shares looks attractive to bargain at current levels for rebound upside towards the mid Bollinger band (USD278.37), while a confirmed breakout should aim for the peak of 01/03/24 (USD318.71) and 123.6%FP (USD367.12) ahead. Support from the 50%FR (USD216.15) and 38.2%FR (USD191.95) limits downside risk.

Trading View: BUY ON WEAKNESS FOR RECOVERY towards: USD278.37/USD318.71/USD367.12, with stop-loss below USD216.15.

Company’s Profile: Intel Corporation is engaged in designing and manufacturing of semiconductors. It operates through three segments: Intel Products, Intel Foundry, and All Other. Its Intel Products segment includes Client Computing Group (CCG), Data Center and AI (DCAI), Network and Edge (NEX). The CCG is focused on long-term operating system, system architecture, hardware, and application integration that enable PC experiences. Its DCAI segment offers workload-optimized solutions to cloud service providers and enterprise customers, along with silicon devices for communications service providers.

Any further correction on Intel Corp. towards the pivot low of 14/10/22 (USD24.59) should attract bargain hunters to accumulate on weakness for recovery play towards the 76.4%FR (USD35.35), tougher hurdles seen at the 61.8%FR (USD41.83) and 50%FR (USD47.08) ahead, while stronger support cushioning downside is capped at USD20.00.

Trading View: BUY ON WEAKNESS FOR RECOVERY towards: USD35.35/USD41.83/USD47.08, with stop-loss below USD24.59.

Company’s Profile: COSCO Shipping Ports Ltd, formerly COSCO Pacific Ltd is an investment holding company principally engaged in the terminal businesses. The Company operates its business through two segments. The Terminal and Related Business segment is engaged in the operation of terminals, the handling, transportation and storage of containers, the leasing, management and sales of containers, as well as other related businesses. The Company's terminal portfolio covers the five main port regions in Mainland China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, South America and the Mediterranean.

Cosco Shipping Ports Ltd. is attractive to bargain for recovery upside to the 50%FR (HKD6.35), with stronger upside hurdles at HKD7.07 and HKD7.96, the respective 61.8% and 76.4%, Fibonacci Retracement levels. Key retracement supports from the 23.6%FR (HKD4.74) and the lower Bollinger band (HKD4.03) limits downside risk.

Trading View: BUY ON WEAKNESS FOR RECOVERY towards: HK6.35/HKD7.07/HKD7.96, with stop-loss below HKD4.74.

Company’s Profile: AIA Group Limited is an investment holding company principally engaged in the provision of life insurance. The products and services mainly include life insurance, accident and health insurance and savings plans, as well as employee benefits, credit insurance and pension services to corporate clients. The Company operates through eight business segments: Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, China, Korea, Other Markets and Group Corporate Centre.

Oversold condition on AIA Group Ltd should improve rebound potential towards the mid Bollinger band (HKD58.02), while the 61.8%FR (HKD64.54) and 50%FR (HKD73.08) would act as tougher upside hurdles. Immediate support is found at the 24/06/16 low (HKD43.30) and the pivot low of 12/02/16 (HKD36.85).

Trading View: BUY ON WEAKNESS FOR RECOVERY towards: HKD58.02/HKD64.54/HKD73.08, with stop-loss below HKD43.30.

Company’s Profile: Wilmar International Limited is a Singapore-based company, which is engaged in investment holding and the provision of management services. The Company’s segments include Food Products, Feed and Industrial Products, Plantation and Sugar Milling, and Others. The Food Products segment comprises the processing, branding and distribution of a range of edible food products, which includes vegetable oil produced from palm and oilseeds, sugar, flour, rice, noodles, specialty fats, snacks, bakery and dairy products. The Feed and Industrial Products comprises the processing, merchandising and distribution of products, which includes animal feeds, nonedible palm products.

Any further correction on Wilmar International Ltd should attract bargain hunters to accumulate on weakness for oversold rebound towards the 76.4%FR (SGD3.46), with stronger upside hurdles coming at the 61.8%FR (SGD3.90) and 50%FR (SGD4.23) ahead. Crucial supports cushioning downside are capped at the pivot low of 27/03/20 (SGD2.83) and SGD2.50.

Trading View: BUY ON WEAKNESS FOR RECOVERY towards: SGD3.46/SGD3.90/SGD4.23, with stop-loss below SGD2.83.

Company’s Profile: Keppel Ltd. is a global asset manager and operator company providing critical infrastructure and services for renewables, clean energy, sustainable urban renewal and digital connectivity. Its Infrastructure segment business provide energy and environmental solutions and services that are essential for sustainable development. Its Real Estate segment business provide sustainable urban space solutions, focusing on sustainable urban renewal and senior living.

Keppel Ltd. looks attractive to bargain on dips for recovery to the 61.8%FR (SGD7.07), with tougher hurdles seen at the 76.4%FR (SGD7.77) and 02/02/18 high (SGD8.92) ahead, while better chart supports are at SGD5.92 and SGD5.22, the respective 38.2% and 23.6%, Fibonacci Retracement levels.

Trading View: BUY ON WEAKNESS FOR RECOVERY towards SGD7.07/SGD7.77/SGD8.92, with stop-loss below SGD5.92.

Company’s Profile: Computershare Limited is a transfer agent and investor service provider. The Company’s segments include Issuer Services, Mortgage Services & Property Rental Services, Employee Share Plans & Voucher Services, Business Services, Communication Services & Utilities, Computershare Corporate Trust, and Technology Services. Issuer Services comprise register maintenance, corporate actions, and stakeholder relationship management. Mortgage Services & Property Rental Services comprise mortgage servicing and related activities.

A confirmed breakout on Computershare Ltd. above the 12/04/24 high (AUD28.43) would enhance upside momentum for share price to target the uncharted territory of 123.6%FP (AUD33.19), with next significant hurdle being the 138.2%FP (AUD36.13). Key retracement supports from the 76.4%FR (AUD23.67) and 61.8%FR (AUD20.73) cushions downside risk.

Trading View: BUY FOR UPSIDE towards: AUD28.43/AUD33.19/AUD36.13, with stop loss below AUD23.67.

Company’s Profile: Qantas Airways Limited is an Australia-based domestic and international airline. The principal activities of the Company include the operation of international and domestic air transportation services and provision of freight services and the operation of a frequent flyer loyalty program. The Company’s segments include Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, Qantas Loyalty, and Corporate. Qantas Domestic is a carrier in the Australian domestic market measured by capacity.

Qantas Airways Ltd. should attract bargain hunters prior to recovery upside to the upper Bollinger band (AUD6.48), with tougher hurdles seen at the 20/12/19 peak (AUD7.46) and the 123.6%FP (AUD8.74) ahead, while crucial chart support cushioning downside is capped at the 50%FR (AUD4.74).

Trading View: BUY ON WEAKNESS FOR RECOVERY towards: AUD6.48/AUD7.46/AUD8.74, with stop loss below AUD4.74.

Source: TA Research - 2 Jul 2024