Data Highlight

• Malaysia's total trade in July 2024 rose by 18.3% YoY, reaching an all-time high of RM255.88bn. This growth compares to an 8.7% YoY increase in the previous month and is faster than Jun's RM237.76bn by 11.6%.

• A breakdown showed total exports rose strongly during the month. The absolute value of Malaysia's exports amounted to RM131.15bn, reflecting an increase of 12.3% from July 2023's RM116.77bn. This strong annual growth was anticipated previously, as this is supported by the low base impact. Exports have consistently registered a contraction in the 2H23. The consensus was looking for a growth of 9.0% YoY.

• Particularly, Malaysia's domestic exports witnessed a steady increase of 18% YoY to RM105bn (4.6% MoM), while re-exports dropped by 5.8% YoY to RM26.11bn (2.0% MoM). On a MoM basis, total exports increased by 1.4% from May’s RM126.02bn.

• Among the top ten destination countries, performance was generally positive, with only two countries experiencing a YoY contraction. As usual, Singapore, China, and the US remained the primary contributors to Malaysia's exports for the month. These three countries collectively accounted for a substantial 40.9% of Malaysia's total exports, solidifying their positions as key destinations for Malaysian goods. However, the slowdown in Chinese demand has resulted in China currently being the third largest market for Malaysian exports, behind the US.

• Singapore led the main destination countries with a contribution of 16.1% to total exports. Exports to Singapore were valued at RM21.06bn, increased by 18.1%. The increase was attributable to higher exports of petroleum products (60.0% YoY), electrical & electronic (E&E) products (9.1% YoY) and machinery, equipment & parts (66.9% YoY).

• Meanwhile, the value of exports to the US (13.6 % of total exports), worth RM17.8bn, increased by 30.9% YoY. The increase was supported by higher exports of E&E products (21.2% YoY) and other manufactures (147.2% YoY).

• However, exports to China (11.3% of total exports) shrank by 11.4% to RM14.77bn on lower demand for E&E products. Despite the decline, higher exports were posted for palm oil and palm oil-based products as well as rubber products.

• Exports to the EU increased by 14.2% to RM10.28bn, following higher exports of palm oil and palm oil-based products, manufacture of metal as well as manufacture of plastics. Exports to the EU major markets that recorded growth were Germany, led by robust demand for E&E products, Italy (manufactures of metal) and Belgium (metalliferous ores and metal scrap).

• Looking at specific sectors, exports of manufactured goods remained significant to the total exports in July 2024 with a contribution of 85.5%, recording an increase of 10.6% YoY to RM112.08bn. The growth was supported by increased exports of machinery, equipment, and parts, petroleum products, E&E products as well as manufacture of metal. Exports of agricultural goods (7.7% of total exports) rose 32.8% to RM10.07bn, the fourth successive month of annual growth. This was bolstered by higher demand for palm oil and palm oil-based agriculture products, supported by increased export volumes and prices. Meanwhile, shipments of mining goods (6.1% of total exports) sustained double-digit growth for the second consecutive month, expanding by 10.2% YoY to RM8.04bn. The increase was driven by strong exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which contributed to higher export volumes.

• A better performance was observed in Malaysia's total imports, with a significant increase of 25.4% YoY to RM124.73bn, and higher than Jun’s 17.8% YoY (consensus estimates: 14.4% YoY). On a monthly basis, total imports rose by 4.7% from RM111.74bn in the previous month.

• China remained Malaysia's top source of imports, recording total imports of RM26.9bn, which accounted for a 21.6% share of Malaysia's imports. Imports from China increased by 32.3% YoY. The rise was driven by an increase in E&E products (35.2% YoY), followed by machinery, equipment & parts (48.1% YoY) and manufacture of metal (33.5% YoY).

• Imports from Singapore were worth RM16.0bn, accounting for 12.9% of Malaysia's total imports, an increase of 20.4% YoY. The increase was driven by E&E products (47.1% YoY) and manufacture of metal (65.2% YoY).

• Of the ten countries, imports from nine major countries of origin recorded high value changes as compared to the previous year except for Saudi Arabia (-53.1% YoY), which recorded a decrease as compared to the previous year.

• Imports of manufacturing (28.1% YoY; RM106.29bn) and agriculture (31.9% YoY; RM7.08bn) sectors registered a growth, while mining (-1.5% YoY; RM9.6bn) sector declined during the month.

• Imports by end use recorded an increase for all three major categories. Imports of intermediate goods rose by 41.2% YoY, followed by an increase in capital goods of 44.4% YoY and consumption goods of 25.5% YoY.

• As a result of the higher growth of imports, the trade surplus for the month narrowed quite significantly to RM6.42bn, marking a 55.1% decline from the previous month's surplus of RM14.28bn. On a YoY basis, the trade surplus contracted by 62.9%, dropping from RM17.31bn in July of the previous year..

Source: TA Research - 20 Aug 2024