TIV Down 19.8% MoM, 14.9% YoY

The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) reported that the total vehicle sales (TIV) dropped to 58.0k units in Sep-24, a significant 19.8% decrease compared to Aug-24, with passenger vehicles down 20.8% and commercial vehicles down 7.5%. On a YoY basis, TIV also fell by 14.9%, with passenger vehicle sales declining 14.0% and commercial vehicles dropping 22.9% compared to the same period last year.

YTD TIV increased by 3.9%, driven by a 6.0% increase in passenger vehicle sales, while commercial vehicle sales lagged, down 15.0% YoY. According to MAA, the decline in Sep-24 was mainly attributed to a shorter working month and consumers adopting a wait-and-see attitude pending the Budget 2025 announcement this month. Additionally, we believe the decrease was also partly due to planned plant shutdowns by major industry players.

National Passenger Vehicle Sales Decline in Sep-24

National passenger vehicle sales dropped 26.6% MoM and 15.8% YoY in Sep-24. Perodua's sales fell by 31.8% MoM and 18.3% YoY, while Proton saw a 12.3% MoM and 9.7% YoY decrease. Despite the weak monthly sales, YTD total national vehicle sales increased by 6.5% YoY, driven by Perodua's 11.6% YoY growth, while Proton's YTD sales decreased by 4.0%.

Other Major Brands Also Faced Declining Sales

Meanwhile, non-national passenger vehicle sales totalled 18.4k units, down 7.0% MoM and 10.5% YoY. Among major brands, Honda’s sales fell by 20.5% MoM and 9.8% YoY, while Nissan experienced a 9.1% MoM decrease and a significant 40.3% drop YoY. Toyota’s sales also declined by 7.3% MoM and 13.2% YoY, and Mazda saw a 13.4% MoM decrease with a 34.6% decline YoY. However, Volkswagen registered a 26.7% increase MoM and 61.0% YoY. YTD, the overall sales of non-national vehicles increased by 5.1% compared to the same period in 2023.

32.9k Units of XEV Sold in 9M2024

According to MAA, the xEV sales (Hybrid Vehicles (HV) and Electric Vehicles (EV)) registered a sales volume of 32.9k units (comprising HV: 22.9k, EV: 10.0k) in 9M2024. We observed a slowdown in EV sales growth, which decreased from 112% in the 1H2024 to 77% in the 9M2024 compared to the same period last year. It is important to note that these figures do not include Tesla and several smaller EV manufacturers as they are not members of MAA. However, the Road Transport Department Malaysia (JPJ) reported that around 15.8k EVs were registered in Malaysia in 9M2024. Additionally, approximately 4.3k Tesla vehicles were registered in 9M2024 compared to 3.1k units in 1H2024.

Maintain Neutral

We maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation for the automotive sector. TIV has shown signs of normalising in 2H24 as the order backlog has shrunk. Our 2024 TIV forecast remains at 750k units (-6.2% YoY). Maintain SELL on MBMR (TP: RM4.70), HOLD on BAuto (TP: RM2.47) and SIME (TP: RM2.74).

Source: TA Research - 17 Oct 2024