Oct TIV Rebound Despite YoY Decline

The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) reported that total industry vehicle sales (TIV) in Oct rebounded to 69.9k units, up 20.3% MoM from a low of 58.1k units in Sep. This growth was fuelled by a 21.5% MoM increase in passenger vehicle sales and a 7.3% MoM rise in commercial vehicles. However, on a YoY basis, TIV declined by 8.3%, with passenger vehicle sales falling 6.4% and commercial vehicle sales plunging 25.7% compared to October last year.

YTD, TIV grew by 2.4% to RM664mn, supported by a 4.6% increase in passenger vehicle sales, although commercial vehicle sales were down 16.1% YoY. MAA attributed the Oct sales recovery to a longer working month and year-end promotional campaigns by car manufacturers.

National Passenger Vehicle Sales Increase in Oct

In Oct, national passenger vehicle sales rebounded strongly, rising 33.1% MoM to 46.0k units, driven by a significant 42.4% increase in Perodua and a 13.0% rise in Proton’s sales. However, the YoY performance was relatively flat, with a slight decline of 0.1%, as Perodua’s sales dipped 0.3% and Proton saw a marginal 0.5% growth. YTD, the overall sales grew 5.7% YoY to 416.6k units, supported by Perodua’s robust 10.1% growth, while Proton recorded a 3.6% decline. Perodua remains the key driver of growth in the national passenger vehicle segment.

Non-National Passenger Vehicle Sales Dip in October

In Oct, the non-national passenger vehicle sales totalled 18.3k units, showing a marginal decline of 0.3% MoM but a significant 19.2% YoY drop. Toyota and Nissan recorded notable MoM growth of 14.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while Mazda grew by 11.0% and Honda by 2.8%. However, the YoY performance saw steep declines across key brands, including Mazda (-42.6%), Nissan (-39.6%), Volkswagen (-31.2%), Toyota (-18.0%) and Honda (-17.4%). Total sales rose 2.1% YoY to 191.7k units, with standout growth from Honda (+6.7%).

MAA Revised 2024 TIV to 800k Units

The MAA has raised its 2024 TIV forecast by 4.6%, increasing it from 765k to 800k units. This revised estimate aligns closely with the 2023 figure of 799.7k units. MAA explained that the earlier forecast underestimated the substantial backlog of orders, especially for popular smaller models from national carmakers.

Maintain Neutral

We maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation for the automotive sector. None of the automotive companies under our coverage have revised sales targets at the time of writing. We put our sales volume assumptions under review pending more guidance from the management during the results briefing. Maintain SELL on MBMR (TP: RM4.70), HOLD on BAuto (TP: RM2.47) and SIME (TP: RM2.74).

Source: TA Research - 20 Nov 2024